Sunday, December 28, 2025
IRAQ NEWS ANALYSIS: Dollar Rise, Salary Cuts, and Food Rations at Risk
Dollar Rise, Salary Cuts, and Food Rations at Risk
Iraq Begins Implementing the White Paper Reforms
Iraq has officially entered a new phase of economic reform. According to economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi, the country has already begun implementing the “White Paper”, an economic reform framework supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
These reforms are designed to manage economic crises in developing countries—but they come with significant social costs, particularly for the poor and middle class.
Important Clarification on Exchange Rate Language (Mnt Goat)
Before diving deeper, Mnt Goat provides a crucial clarification often misunderstood in Iraqi economic reporting:
When articles mention “raising the rate” of the dinar, they usually mean:
Raising the sanctioned exchange rate (e.g., from 1320 to 1440)
This is actually a devaluation
When articles mention “reducing the rate”, they usually mean:
Lowering the sanctioned rate (e.g., from 1320 to 1166)
This represents a revaluation
This distinction is essential to correctly understand Iraq’s monetary policy discussions.
Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi Explains the White Paper
On Friday, December 12, 2025, Al-Marsoumi discussed the repercussions of the White Paper in a blog post titled:
“The First Option for Economic Reform (The White Paper)”
He explained that the IMF and World Bank believe economic crises in developing countries stem from macroeconomic policy failures , and that correcting these failures requires fundamental policy changes, even at the expense of social welfare programs.
Core IMF Reform Package Explained
According to Al-Marsoumi, the IMF-backed reform package includes:
Reducing the exchange rate of the national currency and then floating it
Raising interest rates and imposing credit ceilings
Gradually reducing government subsidies
Cutting public spending on goods and services
Reducing the salary budget and limiting government hiring
Restructuring and privatizing loss-making public sector institutions
Reducing social transfer spending, including food subsidies
Raising energy prices to global levels
Raising taxes, expanding the tax base, and reducing exemptions
Liberalizing prices and trade
Iraq Began Implementing the White Paper in 2020
Al-Marsoumi notes that Iraq began implementing these reforms in 2020, following:
The collapse of oil prices
The global economic shutdown due to COVID-19
Under the White Paper, Iraq committed to several major actions.
Key Measures Already Underway in Iraq
🔹 Salary and Wage Reductions
Reduce the wage and salary bill from 25% of GDP to 12.5% within three years
Halt new government hiring and replacement
🔹 Tax Expansion
Apply income tax to:
Allowances
Bonuses
Incentives and benefits
🔹 Subsidy Cuts and Ration Card Changes
Reduce government support from 13% of GDP to 5%
Limit ration cards to those under social protection programs
Resulting in:
Higher fuel prices
Higher electricity prices
Higher food prices
Increased inflation
🔹 Dollar Exchange Rate Increase
Raise the dollar exchange rate against the dinar by 23%
This move had a negative impact on:
Low-income citizens
The middle class
Social Cost of the White Paper
Al-Marsoumi concludes with a clear warning:
“Implementing the White Paper reforms entails a heavy social cost borne by the poor and those with limited income.”
He also indicates that this reality may require exploring alternative national reform options that better balance economic stability with social protection.
Featured Snippet: Key Insight
What is the White Paper reform in Iraq?
The White Paper is an IMF-backed economic reform program aimed at restructuring Iraq’s economy through subsidy cuts, salary reductions, tax increases, and exchange rate adjustments.
Google Discover Highlight
Iraq has officially begun implementing IMF-backed White Paper reforms. While aimed at stabilizing the economy, economists warn the measures carry significant social costs, including higher prices, salary constraints, and reduced subsidies.
Q&A Section
❓ What is Iraq’s White Paper?
An economic reform plan supported by the IMF and World Bank to address structural weaknesses in Iraq’s economy.
❓ Why did the dollar rise against the dinar?
As part of IMF-backed reforms, Iraq raised the sanctioned exchange rate, effectively devaluing the dinar.
❓ Who is most affected by these reforms?
According to economists, the poor and middle class bear the greatest burden.
❓ Are food rations being canceled?
Ration cards are being reduced and limited to social protection recipients, leading to higher food costs.
Final Thoughts
The implementation of Iraq’s White Paper marks a turning point in economic policy. While designed to stabilize finances and satisfy international institutions, the reforms come with real and immediate social consequences.
As economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi notes, the challenge now lies in balancing economic reform with social justice, a task that may require new national solutions beyond the current framework.
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Mike Bara: Boxing Day Intel and the January 1st Dinar Narrative
Rumors, Banking Signals, and Political Timing in Iraq
During the Boxing Day Intel/Rumor Mill Update, Mike Bara outlined a series of reports and signals that continue to fuel speculation around a potential January 1st public announcement related to the Iraqi dinar.
While clearly categorized as intel and rumor, the convergence of political timing, banking activity, and ongoing chatter has kept attention focused on the opening days of the new year.
Let’s examine the key points and why they matter.
January 1st: A Date Repeated Across Sources
According to Mike Bara, certain sources have been pointing to January 1st as a possible public RV-related announcement date for more than a month.
Additional commentary from CIA_Tony and Bruce suggests:
A potential development after 5:30 PM Eastern
Heightened expectations as the year comes to a close
Although unconfirmed, the consistency of this date appearing across multiple discussions continues to attract attention.
Political Developments: Government Formation Matters
One of the most important elements highlighted is Iraq’s government formation.
Mike Bara notes:
Iraq is expected to form a new government
Sudani is expected to be appointed as Prime Minister
This is anticipated to occur on Monday, the 29th
This step is viewed as critical because political stability is often considered a prerequisite for major monetary announcements.
“This clears the way for a public rate announcement on Jan 1.”
Banking Signals: Interest-Free Credit Cards
Another key detail involves Iraq’s banking system.
According to the update:
Iraq is expected to begin issuing interest-free credit cards on January 1
This would represent a significant modernization of consumer banking
Mike Bara suggests that:
Such a move is much easier with a revalued or adjusted currency
It supports the idea that financial infrastructure is being prepared for change
Bank Stories and Implementation Dates
Additional banking-related reports referenced in the update indicate:
January 1st as a potential announcement date
January 4th as a possible implementation date
While these dates remain speculative, the separation between announcement and implementation aligns with how monetary changes are often rolled out.
Bond Holders: Complete Silence
One notable point emphasized by Mike Bara is the lack of noise from bond holders.
“Bond holders are silent.”
In past cycles, bond-related chatter often preceded major developments. The current silence is being interpreted by some as:
A sign that processes are already underway
Or that confidentiality restrictions are in place
Featured Snippet: Key Summary
What is Mike Bara saying about January 1 and the Iraqi dinar?
Mike Bara reports that multiple intel sources, bank stories, and political developments are pointing to January 1 as a possible public announcement date, with implementation rumors extending into early January.
Google Discover Highlight
Boxing Day intel has reignited discussion around Iraq’s currency future. With government formation, banking upgrades, and repeated January 1 references, speculation continues to build as the new year approaches.
Q&A Section
❓ Is January 1 confirmed for an Iraqi dinar RV?
No. The information shared by Mike Bara is categorized as intel and rumor, not official confirmation.
❓ Why is government formation important?
A seated government and confirmed Prime Minister are often required before major financial or monetary announcements.
❓ Why are interest-free credit cards significant?
They signal banking reform and modernization, which may be easier to implement under a stronger or adjusted currency framework.
❓ What does bond holder silence mean?
Some interpret it as a sign of confidentiality or that processes are already in motion, though no official explanation exists.
Final Thoughts
Mike Bara’s Boxing Day update does not offer guarantees—but it does highlight a convergence of timing, political readiness, and banking preparation that many find noteworthy.
As always, until official announcements are made, these developments remain speculative. However, the repetition of January 1st across multiple narratives ensures that the date will remain under close watch.
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MIKE BARA
Boxing Day Intel/Rumor Mill Update:
Certain sources have been saying Jan 1 Dinar public RV announcement for more than a month.
CIA_Tony and Bruce say today after 5:30 PM eastern is possible.
Iraq should form their new government and appoint Sudani as PM on Monday, the 29th. This clears the way for a public rate announcement on Jan 1.
Iraq will begin issuing interest free credit cards on January 1. This is much easier with a revalued currency.
Bank stories point to Jan 1 as an announcement date, January 4th as implementation date.
Bond holders are silent.
That's it.
DOLLAR RISE, SALARIES CUT, AND NO FOOD RATIONS… EXPERT: IRAQ HAS BEGUN IMPLEMENTING THE “WHITE PAPER”
DOLLAR RISE, SALARIES CUT, AND NO FOOD RATIONS… EXPERT: IRAQ HAS BEGUN IMPLEMENTING THE “WHITE PAPER”
(Mnt Goat: It is important to remember that when in many of these articles they normally talk about ‘raising the rate” of the dinar they actually mean raising the sanctioned rate i.e. 1320 to 1440 and this is a devaluation. And when they normally talk about ‘ reducing the rate” of the dinar they actually mean lowering the sanctioned rate i.e. 1320 to 1166 and this is a revaluation)
On Friday, December 12, 2025, economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi spoke about the repercussions of the “White Paper” adopted by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to manage economic crises in developing countries, which Iraq has begun to implement.
In a blog post followed by Al-Jabal, entitled “The First Option for Economic Reform (The White Paper)”, Al-Marsoumi said that “the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank believe that economic crises in developing countries are caused by errors in macroeconomic policies in developing countries, and that correcting this requires making fundamental changes to these policies, even if it is at the expense of social goals and the poor.”
He added, “The economic reform package adopted by the International Monetary Fund consists of:
1. Reducing the exchange rate of the national currency and then floating it.
2. Raising the interest rate and setting credit ceilings.
3. Gradually reducing government subsidies for government goods and services.
4. Reducing public spending on goods and services.
5. Reducing the salary budget and limiting the appointment of graduates in government institutions.
6. Restructuring and privatizing loss-making public sector institutions.
7. Reducing social transfer expenditure items, particularly with regard to subsidizing the prices of essential food commodities.
8. Raising energy prices to the level of global prices.
9. Raising tax rates, increasing tax revenue, reorganizing and creating other tax bases, imposing direct taxes or policies related to indirect taxes, as well as increasing the taxpayer base, reducing tax exemptions, developing collection methods, and combating tax evasion.
10. Liberalizing all prices and trade.
Al-Marsoumi pointed out that “Iraq actually began implementing the IMF reform program, under the banner of the White Paper in 2020, after the collapse of oil prices as a result of the spread of Corona and the closure of the global economy. The White Paper was supposed to implement the following measures:
1. Reduce the wage and salary bill from 25% of GDP to 12.5% within three years.
2. Restructuring the public sector salary scale by halting new recruitment and replacement processes in the public sector.
3. Applying income tax to employee allowances, incentives, bonuses, and other benefits.
4. Reducing total government support from 13% of GDP to 5% over three years, which extends from electricity and fuel fees to canceling the ration card and limiting it to those covered by the social protection network after its rationalization, which ultimately means higher prices for fuel, electricity and food, and consequently higher levels of inflation in the Iraqi economy.
5. Raising the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, which actually happened in Iraq and which had a negative impact on the poor and even middle class in Iraq after the government raised the dollar exchange rate by 23% against the Iraqi dinar.
Al-Marsoumi concluded his post by saying: “In general, implementing the White Paper reforms entails a heavy social cost borne by the poor and those with limited income, and this will push us to publish another possible option that could be a national option for reform.
Frank26: A New Exchange Rate Is Required for Iraq’s White Papers
Why Iraqi Citizens Are Being Prepared for Monetary Reform
According to Frank26, the message coming out of Iraq could not be clearer:
The White Papers cannot be fulfilled without introducing a new exchange rate into Iraq’s monetary system.
That is the foundation of Iraq’s entire reform process.
As Frank26 explains, this is why certain economists are now appearing daily on Iraqi television, speaking with confidence and authority about monetary reform, lower denominations, and the next steps ahead.
The White Papers Demand a New Exchange Rate
The White Papers were designed to:
Restructure Iraq’s economy
Improve purchasing power for citizens
Strengthen fiscal discipline
Modernize the banking and monetary system
Frank26 makes it very clear:
“In order for you to receive what the White Papers offered you, a new exchange rate must be introduced.”
Without a new rate, the promises made to Iraqi citizens cannot be delivered.
Why Economists Are Speaking Daily on Iraqi Television
Frank26 points out something extremely important:
The economist frequently seen on Iraqi TV is not random.
He believes this individual is:
Being positioned intentionally
Authorized by higher powers
Tasked with educating and reassuring Iraqi citizens
“He is the translation of the confusion of your monetary reform.”
In other words, this economist is bridging the gap between government policy and public understanding.
Preparing Citizens for the Next Step
Everything this economist is saying points toward what comes next.
Frank26 highlights two critical elements that continue to surface:
🔹 The HCL (Hydrocarbon Law)
The HCL is essential for:
Revenue sharing
Economic fairness
Long-term stability
🔹 The Lower Denominations
Lower notes are necessary for:
A new exchange rate
Domestic purchasing power
Functional monetary reform
“We all know the HCL and the lower notes are next—and he tells everybody in Iraq that he knows that too.”
This public confirmation is powerful.
December 1st: What Really Happened?
Frank26 also addressed expectations surrounding December 1st.
Many believed this would be the moment Iraq would:
Introduce the new exchange rate
Move forward with the final monetary step
However, that did not happen.
Why?
“Instead, the USA gave them 30 more days.”
This extension does not cancel reform—it delays it, suggesting final preparations were still underway.
Featured Snippet: Key Insight
Why does Iraq need a new exchange rate for the White Papers?
Iraq needs a new exchange rate because the White Papers promise economic reforms, purchasing power improvements, and monetary restructuring that cannot function under the current rate.
Google Discover Highlight
Iraqi citizens are being systematically prepared for monetary reform through daily economist briefings on national television. According to Frank26, this is no accident—it signals that the next phase, including lower denominations and a new exchange rate, is approaching.
Q&A Section
❓ What are the White Papers in Iraq?
They are a comprehensive economic reform plan designed to stabilize Iraq’s economy and improve citizens’ living conditions.
❓ Why is a new exchange rate necessary?
Because the reforms promised in the White Papers cannot work under the existing exchange structure.
❓ Who is the economist on Iraqi TV?
Frank26 believes this individual is strategically positioned to explain and encourage public understanding of monetary reform.
❓ What delayed the exchange rate on December 1st?
According to Frank26, the United States granted Iraq an additional 30 days to finalize preparations.
Final Thoughts
Frank26’s analysis emphasizes one undeniable truth:
Iraq’s monetary reform is not theoretical—it is being communicated, explained, and prepared for in real time.
With economists educating the public, discussions of the HCL and lower denominations continuing, and international oversight still in place, the groundwork for a new exchange rate is firmly being laid.
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Frank26 In order for you to receive what the 'White Papers' offered you [Iraqi citizens], a new exchange rate must be introduced to Iraq's monetary system. That's it.
That's why the economist speaks with great authority...I am more than convinced this man is being put in position [on television news] daily by the powers that be in order to lift and encourage Iraqi citizens about the monetary reform...He is the translation of the confusion of your monetary reform...Everything he is saying is the next step. We all know the HCL and the lower notes are next and he tells everybody in Iraq that he knows that too. Wow.
December 1st, IOO, that's when we thought they were going to bring out the new exchange rate. They didn't. Instead the USA gave them 30 more days.
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