Sunday, December 28, 2025

IRAQ NEWS ANALYSIS: Dollar Rise, Salary Cuts, and Food Rations at Risk

 Dollar Rise, Salary Cuts, and Food Rations at Risk

Iraq Begins Implementing the White Paper Reforms

Iraq has officially entered a new phase of economic reform. According to economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi, the country has already begun implementing the “White Paper”, an economic reform framework supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

These reforms are designed to manage economic crises in developing countries—but they come with significant social costs, particularly for the poor and middle class.

Important Clarification on Exchange Rate Language (Mnt Goat)

Before diving deeper, Mnt Goat provides a crucial clarification often misunderstood in Iraqi economic reporting:

  • When articles mention “raising the rate” of the dinar, they usually mean:

  • When articles mention “reducing the rate”, they usually mean:

    • Lowering the sanctioned rate (e.g., from 1320 to 1166)

    • This represents a revaluation

This distinction is essential to correctly understand Iraq’s monetary policy discussions.

Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi Explains the White Paper

On Friday, December 12, 2025, Al-Marsoumi discussed the repercussions of the White Paper in a blog post titled:

“The First Option for Economic Reform (The White Paper)”

He explained that the IMF and World Bank believe economic crises in developing countries stem from macroeconomic policy failures , and that correcting these failures requires fundamental policy changes, even at the expense of social welfare programs.

Core IMF Reform Package Explained

According to Al-Marsoumi, the IMF-backed reform package includes:

  1. Reducing the exchange rate of the national currency and then floating it

  2. Raising interest rates and imposing credit ceilings

  3. Gradually reducing government subsidies

  4. Cutting public spending on goods and services

  5. Reducing the salary budget and limiting government hiring

  6. Restructuring and privatizing loss-making public sector institutions

  7. Reducing social transfer spending, including food subsidies

  8. Raising energy prices to global levels

  9. Raising taxes, expanding the tax base, and reducing exemptions

  10. Liberalizing prices and trade

Iraq Began Implementing the White Paper in 2020

Al-Marsoumi notes that Iraq began implementing these reforms in 2020, following:

  • The collapse of oil prices

  • The global economic shutdown due to COVID-19

Under the White Paper, Iraq committed to several major actions.

Key Measures Already Underway in Iraq

🔹 Salary and Wage Reductions

  • Reduce the wage and salary bill from 25% of GDP to 12.5% within three years

  • Halt new government hiring and replacement

🔹 Tax Expansion

  • Apply income tax to:

    • Allowances

    • Bonuses

    • Incentives and benefits

🔹 Subsidy Cuts and Ration Card Changes

  • Reduce government support from 13% of GDP to 5%

  • Limit ration cards to those under social protection programs

  • Resulting in:

    • Higher fuel prices

    • Higher electricity prices

    • Higher food prices

    • Increased inflation

🔹 Dollar Exchange Rate Increase

  • Raise the dollar exchange rate against the dinar by 23%

  • This move had a negative impact on:

    • Low-income citizens

    • The middle class

Social Cost of the White Paper

Al-Marsoumi concludes with a clear warning:

“Implementing the White Paper reforms entails a heavy social cost borne by the poor and those with limited income.”

He also indicates that this reality may require exploring alternative national reform options that better balance economic stability with social protection.

Featured Snippet: Key Insight

What is the White Paper reform in Iraq?
The White Paper is an IMF-backed economic reform program aimed at restructuring Iraq’s economy through subsidy cuts, salary reductions, tax increases, and exchange rate adjustments.

Google Discover Highlight

Iraq has officially begun implementing IMF-backed White Paper reforms. While aimed at stabilizing the economy, economists warn the measures carry significant social costs, including higher prices, salary constraints, and reduced subsidies.

Q&A Section

❓ What is Iraq’s White Paper?

An economic reform plan supported by the IMF and World Bank to address structural weaknesses in Iraq’s economy.

❓ Why did the dollar rise against the dinar?

As part of IMF-backed reforms, Iraq raised the sanctioned exchange rate, effectively devaluing the dinar.

❓ Who is most affected by these reforms?

According to economists, the poor and middle class bear the greatest burden.

❓ Are food rations being canceled?

Ration cards are being reduced and limited to social protection recipients, leading to higher food costs.

Final Thoughts

The implementation of Iraq’s White Paper marks a turning point in economic policy. While designed to stabilize finances and satisfy international institutions, the reforms come with real and immediate social consequences.

As economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi notes, the challenge now lies in balancing economic reform with social justice, a task that may require new national solutions beyond the current framework.

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Mike Bara: Boxing Day Intel and the January 1st Dinar Narrative

Rumors, Banking Signals, and Political Timing in Iraq

During the Boxing Day Intel/Rumor Mill Update, Mike Bara outlined a series of reports and signals that continue to fuel speculation around a potential January 1st public announcement related to the Iraqi dinar.

While clearly categorized as intel and rumor, the convergence of political timing, banking activity, and ongoing chatter has kept attention focused on the opening days of the new year.

Let’s examine the key points and why they matter.

January 1st: A Date Repeated Across Sources

According to Mike Bara, certain sources have been pointing to January 1st as a possible public RV-related announcement date for more than a month.

Additional commentary from 

CIA_Tony and Bruce suggests:

  • A potential development after 5:30 PM Eastern

  • Heightened expectations as the year comes to a close

Although unconfirmed, the consistency of this date appearing across multiple discussions continues to attract attention.

Political Developments: Government Formation Matters

One of the most important elements highlighted is Iraq’s government formation.

Mike Bara notes:

  • Iraq is expected to form a new government

  • Sudani is expected to be appointed as Prime Minister

  • This is anticipated to occur on Monday, the 29th

This step is viewed as critical because political stability is often considered a prerequisite for major monetary announcements.

“This clears the way for a public rate announcement on Jan 1.”

Banking Signals: Interest-Free Credit Cards

Another key detail involves Iraq’s banking system.

According to the update:

  • Iraq is expected to begin issuing interest-free credit cards on January 1

  • This would represent a significant modernization of consumer banking

Mike Bara suggests that:

  • Such a move is much easier with a revalued or adjusted currency

  • It supports the idea that financial infrastructure is being prepared for change

Bank Stories and Implementation Dates

Additional banking-related reports referenced in the update indicate:

  • January 1st as a potential announcement date

  • January 4th as a possible implementation date

While these dates remain speculative, the separation between announcement and implementation aligns with how monetary changes are often rolled out.

Bond Holders: Complete Silence

One notable point emphasized by Mike Bara is the lack of noise from bond holders.

“Bond holders are silent.”

In past cycles, bond-related chatter often preceded major developments. The current silence is being interpreted by some as:

  • A sign that processes are already underway

  • Or that confidentiality restrictions are in place

Featured Snippet: Key Summary

What is Mike Bara saying about January 1 and the Iraqi dinar?
Mike Bara reports that multiple intel sources, bank stories, and political developments are pointing to January 1 as a possible public announcement date, with implementation rumors extending into early January.

Google Discover Highlight

Boxing Day intel has reignited discussion around Iraq’s currency future. With government formation, banking upgrades, and repeated January 1 references, speculation continues to build as the new year approaches.

Q&A Section

❓ Is January 1 confirmed for an Iraqi dinar RV?

No. The information shared by Mike Bara is categorized as intel and rumor, not official confirmation.

❓ Why is government formation important?

A seated government and confirmed Prime Minister are often required before major financial or monetary announcements.

❓ Why are interest-free credit cards significant?

They signal banking reform and modernization, which may be easier to implement under a stronger or adjusted currency framework.

❓ What does bond holder silence mean?

Some interpret it as a sign of confidentiality or that processes are already in motion, though no official explanation exists.

Final Thoughts

Mike Bara’s Boxing Day update does not offer guarantees—but it does highlight a convergence of timing, political readiness, and banking preparation that many find noteworthy.

As always, until official announcements are made, these developments remain speculative. However, the repetition of January 1st across multiple narratives ensures that the date will remain under close watch.

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MIKE BARA

Boxing Day Intel/Rumor Mill Update:


Certain sources have been saying Jan 1 Dinar public RV announcement for more than a month.


CIA_Tony and Bruce say today after 5:30 PM eastern is possible.


Iraq should form their new government and appoint Sudani as PM on Monday, the 29th. This clears the way for a public rate announcement on Jan 1.


Iraq will begin issuing interest free credit cards on January 1. This is much easier with a revalued currency.


Bank stories point to Jan 1 as an announcement date, January 4th as implementation date. 


Bond holders are silent.


That's it.

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MNT GOAT: 👉 “CBI Nears Trigger Point for Currency Redenomination”

 


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DOLLAR RISE, SALARIES CUT, AND NO FOOD RATIONS… EXPERT: IRAQ HAS BEGUN IMPLEMENTING THE “WHITE PAPER”

  DOLLAR RISE, SALARIES CUT, AND NO FOOD RATIONS… EXPERT: IRAQ HAS BEGUN IMPLEMENTING THE “WHITE PAPER”

(Mnt Goat: It is important to remember that when in many of these articles they normally talk about ‘raising the rate” of the dinar they actually mean raising the sanctioned rate i.e. 1320 to 1440 and this is a devaluation. And when they normally talk about ‘ reducing the rate” of the dinar they actually mean lowering the sanctioned rate i.e. 1320 to 1166 and this is a revaluation) 

On Friday, December 12, 2025, economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi spoke about the repercussions of the “White Paper” adopted by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to manage economic crises in developing countries, which Iraq has begun to implement

.

In a blog post followed by Al-Jabal, entitled “The First Option for Economic Reform (The White Paper)”, Al-Marsoumi said that “the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank believe that economic crises in developing countries are caused by errors in macroeconomic policies in developing countries, and that correcting this requires making fundamental changes to these policies, even if it is at the expense of social goals and the poor.”

He added, “The economic reform package adopted by the International Monetary Fund consists of:

1.  Reducing the exchange rate of the national currency and then floating it.

2.  Raising the interest rate and setting credit ceilings.

3.  Gradually reducing government subsidies for government goods and services.

4.  Reducing public spending on goods and services.

5.  Reducing the salary budget and limiting the appointment of graduates in government institutions.

6.  Restructuring and privatizing loss-making public sector institutions.

7.  Reducing social transfer expenditure items, particularly with regard to subsidizing the prices of essential food commodities.

8.  Raising energy prices to the level of global prices.

9.  Raising tax rates, increasing tax revenue, reorganizing and creating other tax bases, imposing direct taxes or policies related to indirect taxes, as well as increasing the taxpayer base, reducing tax exemptions, developing collection methods, and combating tax evasion.

10.   Liberalizing all prices and trade.

Al-Marsoumi pointed out that “Iraq actually began implementing the IMF reform program, under the banner of the White Paper in 2020, after the collapse of oil prices as a result of the spread of Corona and the closure of the global economy. The White Paper was supposed to implement the following measures:

1.  Reduce the wage and salary bill from 25% of GDP to 12.5% ​​within three years.

2.  Restructuring the public sector salary scale by halting new recruitment and replacement processes in the public sector.

3.  Applying income tax to employee allowances, incentives, bonuses, and other benefits.

4.  Reducing total government support from 13% of GDP to 5% over three years, which extends from electricity and fuel fees to canceling the ration card and limiting it to those covered by the social protection network after its rationalization, which ultimately means higher prices for fuel, electricity and food, and consequently higher levels of inflation in the Iraqi economy.

5.  Raising the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, which actually happened in Iraq and which had a negative impact on the poor and even middle class in Iraq after the government raised the dollar exchange rate by 23% against the Iraqi dinar.

Al-Marsoumi concluded his post by saying: “In general, implementing the White Paper reforms entails a heavy social cost borne by the poor and those with limited income, and this will push us to publish another possible option that could be a national option for reform.


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Frank26: A New Exchange Rate Is Required for Iraq’s White Papers

  Why Iraqi Citizens Are Being Prepared for Monetary Reform

According to Frank26, the message coming out of Iraq could not be clearer:
The White Papers cannot be fulfilled without introducing a new exchange rate into Iraq’s monetary system.

That is the foundation of Iraq’s entire reform process.

As Frank26 explains, this is why certain economists are now appearing daily on Iraqi television, speaking with confidence and authority about monetary reform, lower denominations, and the next steps ahead.

The White Papers Demand a New Exchange Rate

The White Papers were designed to:

Frank26 makes it very clear:

“In order for you to receive what the White Papers offered you, a new exchange rate must be introduced.”

Without a new rate, the promises made to Iraqi citizens cannot be delivered.

Why Economists Are Speaking Daily on Iraqi Television

Frank26 points out something extremely important:

The economist frequently seen on Iraqi TV is not random.

He believes this individual is:

  • Being positioned intentionally

  • Authorized by higher powers

  • Tasked with educating and reassuring Iraqi citizens

“He is the translation of the confusion of your monetary reform.”

In other words, this economist is bridging the gap between government policy and public understanding.

Preparing Citizens for the Next Step

Everything this economist is saying points toward what comes next.

Frank26 highlights two critical elements that continue to surface:

🔹 The HCL (Hydrocarbon Law)

The HCL is essential for:

  • Revenue sharing

  • Economic fairness

  • Long-term stability

🔹 The Lower Denominations

Lower notes are necessary for:

  • A new exchange rate

  • Domestic purchasing power

  • Functional monetary reform

“We all know the HCL and the lower notes are next—and he tells everybody in Iraq that he knows that too.”

This public confirmation is powerful.

December 1st: What Really Happened?

Frank26 also addressed expectations surrounding December 1st.

Many believed this would be the moment Iraq would:

  • Introduce the new exchange rate

  • Move forward with the final monetary step

However, that did not happen.

Why?

“Instead, the USA gave them 30 more days.”

This extension does not cancel reform—it delays it, suggesting final preparations were still underway.

Featured Snippet: Key Insight

Why does Iraq need a new exchange rate for the White Papers?
Iraq needs a new exchange rate because the White Papers promise economic reforms, purchasing power improvements, and monetary restructuring that cannot function under the current rate.

Google Discover Highlight

Iraqi citizens are being systematically prepared for monetary reform through daily economist briefings on national television. According to Frank26, this is no accident—it signals that the next phase, including lower denominations and a new exchange rate, is approaching.

Q&A Section

❓ What are the White Papers in Iraq?

They are a comprehensive economic reform plan designed to stabilize Iraq’s economy and improve citizens’ living conditions.

❓ Why is a new exchange rate necessary?

Because the reforms promised in the White Papers cannot work under the existing exchange structure.

❓ Who is the economist on Iraqi TV?

Frank26 believes this individual is strategically positioned to explain and encourage public understanding of monetary reform.

❓ What delayed the exchange rate on December 1st?

According to Frank26, the United States granted Iraq an additional 30 days to finalize preparations.

Final Thoughts

Frank26’s analysis emphasizes one undeniable truth:
Iraq’s monetary reform is not theoretical—it is being communicated, explained, and prepared for in real time.

With economists educating the public, discussions of the HCL and lower denominations continuing, and international oversight still in place, the groundwork for a new exchange rate is firmly being laid.

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Frank26    In order for you to receive what the 'White Papers' offered you [Iraqi citizens], a new exchange rate must be introduced to Iraq's monetary system.  That's it.  

That's why the economist speaks with great authority...I am more than convinced this man is being put in position [on television news] daily by the powers that be in order to lift and encourage Iraqi citizens about the monetary reform...He is the translation of the confusion of your monetary reform...Everything he is saying is the next step.  We all know the HCL and the lower notes are next and he tells everybody in Iraq that he knows that too.  Wow.

December 1st, IOO, that's when we thought they were going to bring out the new exchange rate.   They didn't.  Instead the USA gave them 30 more days.

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"Iraq’s Central Bank Moves Fast: Zero Removal & Dinar Reinstatement Set to Shake Up 2026 Budget!.

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From "nothing" to billionaires... What are the secrets of the phenomenon of "exorbitant and rapid wealth" in Iraq?

  From "nothing" to billionaires... What are the secrets of the phenomenon of "exorbitant and rapid wealth" in Iraq?

Hussein Omran, a researcher in strategic, political, and regional security affairs, highlighted the phenomenon of "exorbitant and rapid wealth accumulation" that has spread in Iraq In recent years, he described it as a product of the "shadow economy" and not the result of investment acumen or genuine entrepreneurship.

Imran noted in a post that I followed Alsumaria News until the scene The Iraqi has become It is teeming with figures "with no commercial or industrial history" who, in record time, became billionaires.

The researcher attributed this shift to two main, almost guaranteed paths to wealth beyond oversight:

The first path:  the dollar "machine" and currency platform: Imran argued that manipulating the price difference between the official and parallel markets, fictitious invoices, and transfers made through front companies and banks lacking genuine oversight, transformed the dollar into a means of exorbitant profit with no risk or added value to the economy, in addition to serving as a cover for money laundering operations.

The second path: oil smuggling and the regional shadow market: The researcher explained that regional crises, particularly those related to Iran, created a massive parallel oil market. He emphasized that Iraq It has become a "corridor and outlet" through complex land and sea routes, where oil is sold under various guises via a system that includes tankers, intermediaries, and formal and informal facilities, making "proximity to oil" the shortest path to wealth.

 Imran warned of the disastrous consequences of this model , emphasizing that it neither builds a state nor creates jobs, but rather produces a "parasitic elite" linked to or protected by politics, which fights any attempt at reform because it threatens its source of profit.

Imran described this situation as "Collapse The "quiet" collapse, which doesn't happen with a resounding explosion, but rather seeps into the structure of society when an entire generation becomes convinced that "work and production" stupidity 

The researcher concluded his presentation with a question that sparked widespread discussion: "Do you know anyone who had nothing and is now a billionaire?", highlighting the clarity of the phenomenon and the inability of natural economic logic to explain it.  link

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Historic Bonds & RV Acceleration: Opportunities Ahead

 Historic Bonds & RV Acceleration: Opportunities Ahead 🌟 Introduction Exciting developments are circulating in the currency and bond co...