Iraq begins the countdown... 90 complex days to form the three branches of government
Following the ratification by the Supreme Federal Court, the highest judicial authority in Iraq, of the final results of the parliamentary elections for the sixth session, the Iraqi political scene has entered a new and sensitive phase, representing the official transition from the electoral process to the formation of the three constitutional authorities: the legislative, the executive, and the presidency of the republic.
Observers confirm that the Federal Court’s ratification yesterday, Sunday, is not merely a formal or procedural step, but rather the decisive constitutional condition that makes the election results effective and binding, and practically announces the readiness to launch a new parliamentary session with all its political entitlements, potential conflicts, and hopes for a different administration than the previous sessions, which were marked by delay and deadlock.
Constitutional legitimacy
Legal expert Nawfal Al-Hayani affirms that the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of the final election results represents the full constitutional legitimacy of those results, based on the text of Article (93/Seventh) of the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005.
Al-Hayani explains in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that the House of Representatives is not considered constitutionally valid and the parliamentary session does not come into effect except from the date of this ratification, stressing that any parliamentary procedure that precedes the ratification is considered to have no constitutional effect by virtue of the constitution, as it is the highest and supreme law in the country.
According to Al-Hayani, the next step immediately after ratification is for the President of the Republic to invite the members of the House of Representatives to convene for their first session, in accordance with the provisions of Article (54) of the Constitution.
If the President of the Republic does not make this invitation, the Council shall automatically convene on the sixteenth day from the date of ratification, and the session shall be chaired by the oldest member.
The first session of the House of Representatives constitutes the cornerstone in building constitutional authorities, as its agenda is constitutionally limited to taking the constitutional oath and electing the Speaker of the House of Representatives and his two deputies.
Al-Hayani points out that completing this step means completing the formation of the legislative authority, and then moving on to the second entitlement, which is the election of the President of the Republic within a period not exceeding thirty days from the date of holding the first session, in accordance with the provisions of Article (70) of the Constitution.
legal deadlines
For his part, legal expert Abbas Al-Aqabi explains that the Iraqi constitution drew a clear timeline for the formation of authorities, starting with Article (54), which obligated the current president of the republic to call the new parliament to convene within 15 days of the date of ratification.
Al-Aqabi confirms to Shafaq News Agency that the first session, which is held at the invitation of the President of the Republic, witnesses the election of the Speaker of Parliament, the First Deputy Speaker and the Second Deputy Speaker, after which the door is opened for nomination to elect the President of the Republic, as the House of Representatives is obligated to elect him within 30 days from the date of the first session, by a two-thirds majority (i.e., 220 deputies) out of a total of 329.
Al-Aqabi adds that the election of the President of the Republic opens the door to the most important stage, which is the appointment of the Prime Minister, as the President of the Republic, within 15 days, appoints the candidate of the largest parliamentary bloc to form the government.
As for the designated candidate, he has a deadline of 30 days to present the ministerial cabinet and the ministerial program to the House of Representatives to obtain confidence by an absolute majority, (half plus one), i.e., 165 deputies or more.
Al-Aqabi concludes that the sum of these periods constitutes a maximum time ceiling of 90 days, which – theoretically – can be reduced but cannot be increased, because the constitutional text explicitly defined them.
Constitution and reality
Despite the clarity of these timelines, the Iraqi political experience since 2003 reveals a significant gap between the constitutional text and practical application. The issue of delaying the formation of governments and the election of presidencies has become a recurring phenomenon, due to political disputes and sectarian and ethnic balances.
After the March 2010 elections, it took about seven months and 18 days to form a government, due to the dispute over the largest bloc and the right to nominate the prime minister.
In 2020, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi was tasked with forming the government following the resignation of Adel Abdul Mahdi, but he later apologized for the task, in a clear example that obstruction can occur even after the official assignment.
After the October 2021 elections, Iraq entered one of its longest periods of political vacuum, with the formation of the government delayed for more than nine months, and was not resolved until October 2022, with the formation of the government of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
The three presidencies
Therefore, Ghazi Faisal, head of the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies, believes that the Federal Court’s ratification and the parliament’s approval of the sixth session represents a pivotal step, but it does not mean the end of the complications.
Faisal explains to Shafaq News Agency that, according to the constitution, the President of the Republic will call on Parliament to convene within 15 days to elect the oldest member and manage the first session, then elect the Speaker of Parliament and his two deputies, and thus the legislative authority will be formed.
Then the parliament moves to the second stage, which is the election of the president of the republic, a stage that is often the most complicated, especially in light of the disputes within the Kurdish house.
According to Faisal, the presidency, according to previous political norms, goes to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, but the Kurdistan Democratic Party believes that it has the right to compete for the position.
If both parties nominate two people, one from the Union and the other from the Democrats, the decision will be made through a vote in the House of Representatives. However, the two-thirds quorum requirement opens the door to what is known as the "blocking third," which may lead to prolonging the sessions to elect the president, as happened in the 2021 session.
Faisal points out that the election of the president will not be completed politically until there is agreement within the coordinating framework (which brings together the ruling Shiite political forces in the country) on the personality of the prime minister, under the system of political and sectarian power-sharing.
After the candidate is appointed, the stage of distributing ministerial portfolios begins according to the points system and the parliamentary weight of the parties, a stage that is no less complex than its predecessors, and often witnesses objections and difficult negotiations before granting confidence.
Sunni choice
On the Sunni component, Nawaf al-Ghurairi, a leader in the Sovereignty Party headed by Khamis al-Khanjar, affirms that the formation of the government is governed by constitutional timelines that cannot be exceeded, calling on all blocs and representatives to adhere to them in order to form the government as quickly as possible.
Al-Ghurairi reveals to Shafaq News Agency that the choice of the Speaker of Parliament "has been decided within the Sunni component to be Muhammad al-Halbousi," but this proposal is not without objections.
Meanwhile, former MP Bassem Khashan continues to raise the possibility of excluding the head of the "Progress" party, Mohammed al-Halbousi, based on a previous decision by the Federal Court to dismiss him from the presidency of Parliament, and accusations related to the forgery of official documents, which he describes as a "crime of dishonor."
In contrast, the Sunni arena is witnessing intense activity within the National Political Council (which includes the Sunni forces that won the elections), which held an expanded meeting in the capital, Baghdad, on Sunday evening, to discuss the names of candidates for the presidency of Parliament.
According to various sources in the council who spoke to Shaq News Agency, the number of candidates for the presidency of parliament has decreased from six to three, with talk of a "near consensus" on Muthanna al-Samarrai, in addition to the continued inclusion of the names of al-Halbousi and Thabit al-Abbasi.
Coordination framework
In parallel, the leaders of the Coordination Framework held their meeting last Monday, which witnessed an important discussion about choosing a candidate for the premiership. According to sources from Shafaq News Agency, specific dates were agreed upon to resolve the entitlements, with three prominent names being discussed, including outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, and a third "surprise" figure.
The Coordination Framework had previously set conditions and criteria that must be met by candidates for the position of head of the new government, most notably that he should not be the leader of a political bloc, then it softened them, which opened the door for most of the forces within the framework to submit their candidates for the position, according to what a political source told Shafaq News Agency earlier.
Imran al-Karkoushi, a member of the State of Law Coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki, confirms that completing the election of the three presidencies according to their constitutional timetable depends mainly on political agreements between the different blocs.
Al-Karkoushi, speaking to Shafaq News Agency, indicated that this session is expected to proceed in an organized manner and without exceeding the specified legal deadlines, unlike what happened in previous sessions, which witnessed long delays due to political disputes.
Kurdish commitment
For his part, Wafaa Muhammad Karim, a leader in the Kurdistan Democratic Party, believes that the constitutional deadlines were not respected in previous sessions, especially in the election of the president and the formation of the government.
Karim, speaking to Shaq News Agency, points out that an agreement between the two Kurdish parties (the Union and the Democratic) on a single candidate for the presidency could speed up the process, while going with two candidates would mean entering into alliances with other forces and prolonging the entitlement.
According to the political balance that emerged after 2003, the distribution of sovereign positions in Iraq became influenced by sectarian and political quotas; where political custom dictates that the position of Prime Minister is allocated to the Shiite component, while the position of President of the Republic is allocated to the Kurdish component, while the Sunni component assumes the presidency of the House of Representatives link