From The Central Bank: Initial Indications Of An Impending Economic Recession In Iraq
Baghdad Today – Baghdad Economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi revealed on Thursday (June 26, 2025) that the Central Bank of Iraq recorded a 4% decline in total US dollar sales during the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. He warned that this decline could be an early indicator that the Iraqi market is entering a recession.
Al-Obaidi said, in a clarification followed by "Baghdad Today," that "the Central Bank's total dollar sales amounted to $31.5 billion during the first five months of 2025, a decrease of approximately $1.3 billion compared to sales during the same period in 2024, which amounted to $32.9 billion."
He pointed out that "the decline was primarily concentrated in cash dollar sales, which fell by 17%, reaching only $1.3 billion compared to $1.55 billion last year,
while dollar sales via the "Currency Balances Enhancement" mechanism saw a 38% increase, reaching $30.2 billion, compared to $21.9 billion in the corresponding period."
Al-Abidi added, "The direct foreign transfer mechanism, previously used under what is incorrectly known as the 'auction,' has completely halted this year, after recording $9.4 billion in the same period in 2024."
He explained that "dollar sales used to settle international payments via electronic cards declined from $1 billion in January to just $261 million in May, due to restrictions imposed by the Central Bank and the inability of some banks to complete settlements."
Al-Obaidi emphasized that "this decline in sales, despite the decline in the exchange rate on the parallel market, reflects a decline in commercial demand and economic activity, which increases the likelihood of an economic recession, especially with inflation rates falling to 1.1% in April 2025, the lowest level in years." https://baghdadtoday.news/277366-.html
FIREFLY:They're saying right now on TV the deal they were working on [with Kurdistan] is imminent and it will settle all disputes on oil and salaries. If that is true we have a new rate because that's the only reason why there was a dispute.
FRANK: The only thing that can settle all of these disputes in your country is the removal of Iran's politicians which has been accomplished. The only way to settle it now is by making money.
#BREAKING: The Iraqi Federal Government will release May salaries for the Kurdistan Region’s civil servants this week, while the KRG is required to transfer its domestic revenues to Baghdad, a high-level source from the Kurdistan Region’s Council of Ministers told Zoom News.
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A high-level Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) delegation, led by the Minister of Natural Resources Kamal Mohammed, is in Baghdad to meet with Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani and discuss efforts to resume the Kurdistan Region’s oil exports, Zoom News has learned, with talks centered on a recent federal report following an Iraqi visit to KRG oil fields that could pave the way for a new agreement.
: Zoom News/ file
DINAR GURUS UPDATE: GREAT DEAL! Does the CBI pay up to $6 per dinar? Shocking New Rate Revealed!
Summary
This video provides an in-depth analysis of the Iraqi dinar’s value, emphasizing that currency valuation is fundamentally linked to a country’s economic health and growth rather than mere speculation.
The presenter highlights Iraq’s ongoing efforts to stabilize and strengthen its economy by reintegrating its banking system into the global financial landscape, diversifying its economy beyond oil, and rebuilding crucial infrastructure.
These steps aim to improve Iraq’s GDP and create a more attractive environment for foreign investment, which is essential for the dinar’s potential rise in value.
A significant focus is placed on the Central Bank of Iraq’s (CBI) role in managing the money supply and controlling the amount of Iraqi dinars circulating outside the official banking system. The video warns against the risks of hyperinflation if too many dinars remain outside banks, especially those held by investors abroad. The CBI plans to retrieve dinars within Iraq first, stabilize the economy, and then proceed with revaluation, which may include introducing lower denominations to facilitate everyday transactions. The success of this strategy is crucial for the dinar’s future stability and value.
The video encourages investors holding dinars outside Iraq to stay informed, monitor official announcements, and participate in community discussions to navigate the currency’s future effectively. Ultimately, the video underscores that the dinar’s value is dependent on Iraq’s economic fundamentals, government policies, and the effective management of currency circulation.
Highlights
💵 The Iraqi dinar’s value is tied to the country’s economic strength, not speculation.
🌍 Iraq is working to reintegrate its banking system with global financial standards to attract foreign investment.
🛢️ Economic diversification beyond oil into agriculture, tourism, and technology is a key focus.
🏗️ Infrastructure rebuilding is critical for economic growth and business operations.
🏦 The Central Bank of Iraq prioritizes retrieving dinars inside the country to prevent hyperinflation.
📉 Revaluation and introduction of lower denominations aim to stabilize and make the currency practical.
📢 Investors abroad must stay informed and aware of CBI actions to protect their investments.
Key Insights
💡 Currency Value Reflects Economic Fundamentals: The video clarifies that currency appreciation cannot be based on hopes or rumors but depends on measurable economic indicators like GDP growth, infrastructure development, and financial stability. This insight discourages speculative behavior and encourages a long-term perspective.
🌐 Global Banking Integration Is Crucial: Iraq’s efforts to align its banking system with international standards are fundamental for attracting foreign capital and expertise. Integration increases transparency, trust, and facilitates smoother cross-border transactions, which are vital for economic growth and currency stability.
🔄 Diversification Reduces Economic Risk: Heavy reliance on oil revenues exposes Iraq to volatile global oil markets. By investing in sectors like agriculture, tourism, and technology, Iraq aims to create multiple income streams, which can stabilize government revenues and reduce currency volatility.
🏗️ Infrastructure Investment Spurs Economic Activity:
Improved infrastructure enhances productivity, lowers business costs, and creates jobs, all of which contribute to a stronger economy and a healthier currency. This long-term investment lays the foundation for sustained economic growth.
⚖️ Managing Money Supply Prevents Hyperinflation: The CBI’s focus on retrieving dinars circulating outside the banking system highlights the dangers of uncontrolled money supply, which can lead to hyperinflation. Controlling currency circulation is essential for maintaining price stability and protecting the economy’s health.
🔄 Currency Revaluation Requires Careful Planning: The process of revaluing the dinar is complex and must be preceded by stabilizing the domestic currency supply. Introducing lower denominations post-revaluation will facilitate daily transactions and help integrate the currency into everyday use, supporting economic normalization.
🧠 Investor Awareness and Education Are Vital: For investors holding dinars outside Iraq, staying informed about economic developments and CBI policies is critical. Active engagement with reliable sources and communities helps navigate uncertainties and make better-informed financial decisions.
This comprehensive overview underlines that the Iraqi dinar’s potential rise in value is a gradual process anchored in real economic reforms and prudent monetary policies rather than quick fixes or speculative hopes.
on the hills”so don’t forget to set HIS share for Him aside first. 
