What is your current assessment as it relates to the dinar (IQD)?
A: It has now been two weeks since the initial Israeli airstrikes on Iran, and the situation has continued to evolve. While a US-brokered ceasefire was announced on 23rd June, following a 12-day conflict that saw exchanges of missile and drone attacks, the broader implications for Iraq and the Iraqi Dinar's potential revaluation remain complex and largely negative.
Here's a follow-up based on the latest developments:
Flour factory
Lingering Instability and Uncertainty
Despite the ceasefire, the underlying tensions between Israel and Iran persist, and this continued regional instability is a significant factor for Iraq. While Iraq itself largely avoided direct involvement in the recent fighting, its geographic proximity means it remains highly susceptible to any fallout.
Political and Security Concerns: The conflict highlighted the potential for regional power struggles to spill into Iraq, impacting its already fragile domestic stability. There have been reports of continued efforts to manage the influence of Iran-aligned Iraqi groups, and the risk of renewed hostilities involving these groups remains.
Economic Vulnerability: Iraq's economy, heavily reliant on oil exports, is particularly vulnerable. While there was a short-term rise in oil prices during the conflict, which generated some additional revenue, this was largely offset by increased import costs due to disruptions in maritime insurance markets, global price fluctuations, higher shipping expenses, and a decline in air transport and religious tourism. An Iraqi government adviser described the conflict's impact as a "double-edged shock," leaving the Iraqi economy in a state of "neutral uncertainty."
Dinar Under Pressure
The Iraqi Dinar has continued to face headwinds, largely due to the pervasive uncertainty and ongoing economic challenges.
Dollarisation and Parallel Market: The increased regional tension has reinforced the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven. While the official Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) rate remains stable at 1,320 IQD to $1, the parallel market has seen fluctuations. Recent reports indicate that USD/IQD exchange rates have edged lower in Baghdad and Erbil, with selling prices for $100 ranging from 141,750 IQD to 142,250 IQD, still significantly above the official rate. This persistent gap is a clear indicator of market pressure and a lack of confidence in the Dinar.
Smuggling Concerns: The issue of dollar smuggling to Iran, aimed at circumventing US sanctions, continues to plague Iraq's financial system. This illicit flow of currency further limits the CBI's ability to effectively manage the Dinar's value and build confidence for a revaluation.
Budgetary Challenges: Iraq is facing significant fiscal strains, with the 2025 federal budget unlikely to be submitted to Parliament anytime soon. This delay is attributed to "severe financial deficits, unstable revenue streams, the absence of a coherent economic vision, and the looming legislative elections." A parliamentary finance committee member noted a budget deficit of nearly 80 trillion IQD (approximately $61 billion), which puts immense pressure on government spending and the overall economic outlook. Delays in the budget can directly impact public salaries and infrastructure projects, further dampening economic sentiment.
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Outlook for Revaluation
Given these ongoing developments, the prospect of an Iraqi Dinar revaluation in the near future appears highly improbable. The confluence of factors including:
Continued regional instability and potential for escalation.
Persistent demand for the US dollar and challenges in the parallel market.
Ongoing issues with dollar smuggling and US sanctions.
Significant internal budgetary deficits and political uncertainty within Iraq.
all contribute to an environment that is not conducive to a revaluation. While Iraq's vast oil reserves are a long-term asset, the immediate economic and geopolitical landscape presents too many hurdles. The Iraqi government's focus is currently on managing the existing economic challenges and navigating the complex regional dynamics, rather than pursuing a revaluation.
On Thurs. 26 June 2025 the Skybreaker Protocol went live, erasing the old banking system worldwide. As of 7:30 pm EST Thurs. 26 June all countries were on their new asset-backed currencies. The new USTN was delivered in $150,000 packets to each US bank again today Thurs. 26 June.
On Fri. 27 June 2025 at 03:22 EST, the United Nations Charter was no longer in effect, having been replaced by a new Sovereign Cooperation Accord signed by military representatives from 209 aligned nations (of the BRICS Alliance Global Currency Reset).
Sat. 28 June 2025: Redemption Center networks activated across 70 countries. Civilian verification teams deployed, focusing on biometric on-boarding and USTN access for verified citizens.
Between Sun. 29 June and Fri. 4 July 2025 expect a Blackout Period for the banks (as announced over the EBS) while systems adjusted to the new currency rates and Global Financial System.
Tues. 1 – Thurs. 3 July: Mass activation of gold certificates in North America.
Fri. 4 July 2025 Global Activation Day: On this symbolic day, the full public activation of the QFS, NESARA/GESARA economic reset and release of suppressed healing technologies begins. The world will enter the most transformative 24 hours of modern history. The public announcement of this new American Republic under concepts of the original Constitution will be done in a coordinated global signal via QFS. Declaration of Planetary Jubilee and full EBS broadcast release begins.
Sat. 5 July to Mon. 14 July: QFS mass biometric sync rollout. US Treasury-backed Rainbow Notes become primary medium of international trade, fiat currencies enter terminal phase.
By Dr Renad Mansour, for Chatham House. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.
Iraq's fragile stability is threatened by a shifting Middle Eastern order
For the first time in recent memory, Iraq has found itself on the margins of a major Middle Eastern conflict rather
than at its epicentre.
Open conflict between Iran and Israel arrived during a rare window of relative stability and developmental progress.
Yet, this moment of fragile calm is unlikely to endure. Iraq is on the brink of being drawn into what appears to be a transformative upheaval in the regional order.
I have 2 bond contacts that I know personally and another that say they have been issued “traveling dollars”. They were told weeks ago to be prepared to travel as soon as they received those funds.
They had been waiting for those funds and just received them…so for me…this is a good sign... One of those sources started traveling today to get to their exchange location...
[MarkZ was told that once the Bonds are paid, we would be next]