Economist Warns Of Recession Signs: Low Inflation Is A Warning Bell

 Economist Warns Of Recession Signs: Low Inflation Is A Warning Bell

Economy 20-06-2025, 12:13 | 514  Baghdad Today – Baghdad  Economic expert Munir Al-Obaidi warned on Friday (June 20, 2025) of signs of recession that could turn into a broader crisis affecting the Iraqi economy,  indicating that the decline in inflation is a warning bell for the recession phase.

Al-Obaidi said in a post on his Facebook page, which was followed by Baghdad Today:
 
"The Iraqi Statistical Authority announced a decline in the country's monthly inflatio n rate by 0.3% during the month of April, while the annual  general inflation rate recorded 1.6%, and  core inflation 0.6%."  

He added, "It is noteworthy that food prices continued to rise by 3.2% annually, despite declines in the prices of bread, meat, and fish.
 
This is due to sharp increases in the prices of fruits and vegetables, which rose by 13.7% and 8.4%, respectively."  He pointed out that, "In contrast, tobacco prices declined by a significant 26%, while
clothing and footwear prices saw a slight annual increase of 2%.
 
Household appliances recorded a 1% decline, while furniture and office equipment prices rose by 0.5%."  He pointed out that "in terms of geographical distribution, the annual inflation rates, by region, were  1.1% in Kurdistan,  1.4% in the central governorates, and  3.1% in the southern governorates." 

Al-Obaidi explained that “the decline in prices, despite its positive impact on citizens, especially in sectors such as electrical appliances and furniture, may reflect a state of stagnation in the market,
as a result of   weak consumer confidence,  lack of liquidity, and a  decline in financing provided to the private sector, especially with the  weakness of insurance services provided by financial institutions.”   

He indicated that “although the decline in inflation may appear to be a positive indicator, it may also be an alarm bell for a phase of recession, threatening to  reduce job opportunities in the private sector and
 weaken the ability of local products to compete due to rising costs, which may lead to further pressure on the government sector in light of the high unemployment rates.”

 He continued, "What is required today is to closely monitor economic indicators and take serious steps to stimulate economic activity and support the private sector, so that signs of recession do not turn into a broader crisis that affects the entire Iraqi economy."    https://baghdadtoday.news/276915-.html

DINAR EXCHANGE 🚨 Trump’s 2‑Week Iran Deadline = RV Countdown? 🕰️💣

 DINAR EXCHANGE

Trump’s 2‑Week Iran Deadline = RV Countdown?

As Trump weighs a strike or diplomatic breakthrough with Iran, regional instability could pressure Iraq’s CBI to pivot on the IQD peg 

Middle East on edge = currency shift opportunity?

MNT GOAT: "Things are moving quickly now.!!" @DINARREVALUATION #iqd #iraq #iraqidinar

 

Baghdad in UNSC: Iran strike risks regional war

 Shafaq News/ On Sunday, Iraq’s representative to the United Nations Security Council expressed Baghdad’s “deep concern” over the rapidly escalating military developments.

In remarks delivered during an emergency session of the Security Council, Ambassador Abbas Kazem Ubaid Al-Fatlawi noted Iraq’s condemnation of the recent attack targeting nuclear facilities, cautioning such operations risk expanding the conflict and could draw in additional regional and international actors.

Al-Fatlawi stressed that targeting nuclear sites “sets a dangerous precedent that violates the principles of the nuclear non-proliferation regime.” He called on the international community to take immediate steps to revive dialogue channels, warning that such attacks could lead to “catastrophic radioactive leaks that threaten both people and the environment, with cross-border consequences.”

He added that the region has experienced repeated waves of instability over recent decades, but now faces the danger of a full-scale regional war—marked by economic fallout that threatens global supply chains and international maritime routes.

The ambassador also emphasized that Iraq is “directly affected by these developments and has already documented repeated violations by parties to the conflict.”

The UN Security Council convened an emergency session on June 23 in New York to address the United States’ airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The meeting explored a draft resolution—sponsored by Russia, China, and Pakistan—calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire in the Middle East.

TIDBIT FROM MARKZ

 MarkZ   

[via PDK]  

 ...Here is one we need to watch because of the timing. We are seeing some correlation between stablecoin and the digital dinar. With a potential rate of up to $3.22. But I still think it will be higher.

 Article:  “Sudani declares 2025 as the year of Iraqi industry”  He says this is the year they are going to become independent on energy, food etc….

BROTHER TECHN: Iraq clearly has enough monetary power to buy back all their currency off the streets

 

Prime Minister's Advisor: The country's financial situation is secure

 Prime Minister's Advisor: The country's financial situation is secure

The Prime Minister's Financial Advisor, Dr. Mazhar Mohammed Salih, stated that Iraq's financial situation remains within safe limits, despite regional tensions resulting from the Israeli aggression against Iran. He noted that the country possesses clear financial tools and hedges in the three-year general budget law that enable it to absorb potential shocks.

Saleh said, in an interview with Al-Sabah, followed by Al-Eqtisad News, that “the general budget for the three years (2023-2025) was prepared according to a medium-term financial policy, which includes hedging within the upper spending ceilings, as it was set between an upper limit of 200 trillion dinars, and a lower limit of more than 155 trillion dinars, which ensures meeting the state’s operational and investment obligations.”

He explained that "this hedge is based on the movement of the oil asset cycle, and a hypothetical deficit of 64 trillion dinars has been adopted, which is supposed to be financed in the event of a price decline, which constitutes a strong precaution against any sharp fluctuations in the global oil market."

He explained that "the last two months have indeed witnessed signs of a price contraction in the oil market, but the geopolitical tensions resulting from the war between Iran and the Zionist entity caused a positive price shock, raising oil prices by about $10 per barrel, which improved the country's revenues, although this is fraught with risks related to the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 99% of Iraq's oil exports pass."

The advisor added, "The Iraqi economy is currently supported by a foreign exchange reserve, which is a fundamental pillar of stability, covering 15 months of trade, in addition to the availability of commodity stocks, some of which extend for more than three years, and food security indicators are very reassuring."

Saleh concluded his remarks by emphasizing that "Iraq's fiscal policy is built on a foundation of caution and forward-looking planning to ensure it can address any potential external repercussions, including those that may result from regional conflicts or oil market turmoil."  link