FIREFLY: Saleh says, 'I have a mandate that's coming on July 1st to use our cards for payments.' We are close. If they are asking us to do this, this means we're very close.
FIREFLY:
They're telling us on the Asraflak website that the future for Iraq is digital.They say if we help them accomplish the digitalization of our country, bring in our three zeros, that would allow security and stability for our monetary reform
. FRANK: They're not pulling any punches. Digitalization is now?
...I don't know. It's troubling to a degree and it's exciting to another degree
Diplomats: Iran is holding direct talks with the US to end the war
6/19/2025
Reuters reported on Thursday, citing diplomats, that Iran is holding direct talks with the United States to find a diplomatic end to the ongoing war with Israel.
Three diplomats told the agency that "US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi have spoken by phone several times since the start of the military exchange between Iran and Israel last week, in an attempt to find a diplomatic end to the war."
Israel and Iran continue to exchange devastating attacks for the seventh consecutive day, amid fears of US forces becoming involved in the conflict and international calls for calm.
Article: "Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein has cautioned...closure of the Strait of Hormuz...warned that this could drive oil prices to $200-300 per barrel,
exacerbating the global inflation crisis and negatively impacting both producing and importing countries, including Iraq."
We are now seeing the impact of the war between Israel and Iran. Higher oil prices are a windfall for Iraq but will cost the USA at the pump. I doubt Trump will put up with one minute of this nonsense.
Government advisor: Foreign exchange reserves are the highest in Iraq's history.
The Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, confirmed on Thursday that Iraq is witnessing economic stability and developmental prosperity, with low inflation and unemployment and high growth. He also noted that foreign exchange reserves are the highest in Iraq's history.
“Iraq faces strong economic challenges in the geopolitical context due to the ongoing war in the Middle East,” Saleh told the official agency, followed by Iraq Observer. “This may be related to the movements of Iraq’s trade balance with the world, especially oil exports and energy markets. While the Gulf and the passage of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz represent approximately 30 percent of the flow of energy from its sources to the world, 99 percent of Iraq’s oil is currently exported through the Gulf and the aforementioned strait to world markets, especially the economies and markets of Asia.”
“The increase in crude oil prices, which jumped by nearly $10 before the recent outbreak of the Iranian-Israeli war, is a positive price shock,” he added. “However, at the same time, we must be careful about the consequences of the war and the safety of oil routes in the Gulf, without forgetting that import trade is also bearing risks represented by rising shipping and insurance costs and rising prices, which may increase with the escalation of conflict levels across the Gulf as well.”
He explained that "the positive external price factors in the value of oil exports, which are dependent on geopolitics, should not be the basis for sustainable fiscal policies based on oil revenues, which constitute a central component of public revenues and shape the 2025 budget schedules, unless stability is achieved and the threat of war in all its forms is eliminated."
Regarding the government's delay in submitting the federal general budget schedules for the year 2025, Saleh explained that "one of the requirements stipulated in the Triennial General Budget Law No. 13 of 2023 is due to the amendment of some paragraphs of the Federal General Budget Law for the three years 2023, 2024 and 2025 last February of this year, which were originally covered by Law No. 13 of 2023."
He explained that "this required systematic, practical and oversight communication between the House of Representatives and the government and its bodies represented by the Ministry of Finance to accurately and comprehensively monitor federal revenues and all financial procedures, especially the management of current operational and investment expenditures without interruption, as well as deficit financing."
He pointed out that "the delay in submitting the schedules was influenced by external factors, which are merely reflections of external geopolitical shocks, whether global trade wars, the energy markets experiencing some price contraction before their sudden improvement, or the beginning of indicators of a downward and upward oil asset cycle that should have been addressed by adjusting some spending rules."
Saleh pointed out that, "Despite the ongoing concerns raised during the first half of the current fiscal year, regarding complete financial stability, our country's financial situation has not shown any concerns. This is due to sound management and the high degree of compatibility between the country's fiscal and monetary policies, as monetary policy supports the country's financial policy with its foreign currency reserves, which are the highest in Iraq's history."
He emphasized that "during such periods, monetary policy plays its role in stimulating the domestic financing market with the strength of reserves, particularly in supporting and stabilizing liquidity and general cash flows in the country. This is done to ensure government development programs for the diverse and comprehensive infrastructure projects our country is witnessing, given their role in stimulating the labor market and businesses."
He continued, "All fears have been dispelled due to the mutual and cohesive immunities within the framework of the economic policy itself and the implementation of the government's program, coupled with high financial excellence and discipline."
He explained that “the delay in submitting the 2025 budget schedules to the House of Representatives did not prevent the implementation of the public finance program covered by the basics of the current general budget law, but the external circumstances and successive international economic shocks in the energy market, and the amendment to the current law No. 13, as we mentioned, regarding the issue of assessing the costs of extracting the region’s oil and its marketing costs, are what required time for partial adjustment in some of the constants and variables related to revenues, public expenditures, and deficit management.”
He pointed out that "these tables will be submitted in the coming period based on the provisions of Article 77/Second of Law 13, as mentioned above, which requires the House of Representatives to approve the general budget tables for the current fiscal year, which are now at the end of their preparations for presentation to the House."
He concluded by saying: “The strength of the coordination between the government’s general policies in the financial and monetary fields has dispelled all those concerns about the management of problems resulting from the global economic situation.
Rather, it is working in the interest of the sustainability of economic stability and sustainable development in our country, which is witnessing years of high stability and remarkable development prosperity, whether through low inflation rates, low unemployment rates, or high levels of growth, especially after the launch of the philosophy of strategic partnership between the state’s economy and the market, within the social market strategy that stipulates protecting the stability of citizens’ living standards and supporting the role of the market in investment, reconstruction, and development together.” link
The video transcript presents a skeptical and cautionary perspective on claims circulating in some online communities about an imminent Iraqi dinar revaluation (RV).
The speaker expresses disbelief at optimistic predictions from dinar gurus who expect the RV to happen once current conflicts settle.
Instead, the video outlines significant geopolitical and economic challenges that currently undermine the likelihood of such an event.
The Middle East is described as volatile, with over 40,000 U.S. troops deployed on high alert due to anticipated Iranian military action. The presence of the U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz moving into the Gulf further signifies rising tensions.
The transcript highlights the economic turmoil within Iraq and the Kurdistan region. The regional government struggles financially due to the federal government’s inability to support salaries, reflecting deeper fiscal instability. Compounding this, an Iraqi oil tanker recently caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil supply—exposing Iraq’s vulnerability in oil exports and its dependence on this route to deliver oil, notably to buyers like China. Since Iraq lacks alternative export routes for oil, any disruption poses a severe economic threat and heightens the risk of broader financial instability.
The video also discusses the political instability within Iraq, including factions calling for the expulsion of American forces and Iraq’s demand for a no-fly zone, which are politically symbolic but unrealistic given Washington’s control over airspace and the conflicting interests in the region, such as Israel’s military operations. The Iraqi dinar’s exchange rate is noted as being weak and unstable, trading around 143,400 dinars to 100 USD on the parallel market, showing no significant positive change that would indicate an RV is forthcoming.
Finally, the speaker advises viewers to be cautious, avoid hype, and focus instead on practical side hustles that do not require advanced skills or large time commitments, emphasizing the importance of maintaining realistic expectations amid ongoing instability.
Highlights
🛑 Skepticism toward Iraqi dinar revaluation claims amidst current Middle East conflicts
🚨 Over 40,000 U.S. troops deployed in the Middle East due to anticipated Iranian attacks
🔥 Iraqi oil tanker fire near the strategic Strait of Hormuz threatens oil exports
💸 Kurdistan region faces a salary crisis due to lack of federal funding from Baghdad
🕊️ Political factions inside Iraq advocate for the removal of U.S. forces, but Iraq lacks control
💼 Advice to focus on practical income-generating side hustles rather than speculative investments
Key Insights
⚠️ Geopolitical instability severely undermines economic predictability in Iraq: The deployment of tens of thousands of U.S. troops and heightened military alert status underscore the fragility of security in the region. This volatile situation, including the Iran-Israel tensions, makes any major financial event like an Iraqi dinar RV highly unlikely in the short term because governments and markets need stability to orchestrate such currency changes.
🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical vulnerability for Iraq’s oil-dependent economy: The fire on the Iraqi oil tanker near this vital passageway is symbolic of the precariousness of Iraq’s main export route. With no alternatives for exporting oil in comparable volumes, disruptions at this chokepoint not only threaten Iraq’s revenues but also affect wider geopolitical energy markets, which could deter foreign investors and trading partners.
💰 Federal funding shortfalls exacerbate internal Iraqi economic problems: The salary crisis in the Kurdistan region points to the federal government’s inability or unwillingness to meet financial obligations due to ongoing conflicts and budget restraints. This situation likely reduces domestic consumption and further destabilizes local economies, emphasizing the interconnectedness of security, politics, and economics.
🔄 Speculative enthusiasm about the Iraqi dinar RV may be misplaced and potentially harmful: Online “dinar guru” hype has persisted for over two decades, yet real-world conditions such as ongoing war threats, economic instability, and lack of political control undermine their claims. Investors relying on such speculation risk losses or delays, reinforcing the need for grounded perspectives in investment decisions.
✈️ Iraqi political demands, such as a no-fly zone, reveal limited sovereignty and influence: Despite vocal calls from Iraqi factions desiring removal of U.S. forces and controlling airspace, the reality is that foreign powers like the U.S. and Israel maintain decisive military presences. This limits Iraq’s autonomy and complicates any national efforts toward political stability or economic reform.
📉 Parallel market exchange rates reflect economic uncertainty and currency weakness: The dinar trading at approximately 143,400 IQD per 100 USD on the parallel market, down from previous rates, indicates continued depreciation and lack of investor confidence. Without official stabilization measures or improved economic fundamentals, currency revaluation remains improbable.
💡 Diversification through practical side hustles offers financial resilience amid uncertainty: The speaker emphasizes developing additional income streams that do not require advanced skills or heavy time investment. This advice reflects a pragmatic approach to personal finance by mitigating dependence on speculative outcomes like an RV, which are subject to geopolitical factors beyond individual control.
The video underscores the multifaceted challenges facing Iraq and cautions viewers to ground their expectations in the current geopolitical and economic realities, while encouraging practical steps to ensure financial security amid ongoing instability.