Article: "Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein has cautioned...closure of the Strait of Hormuz...warned that this could drive oil prices to $200-300 per barrel,
exacerbating the global inflation crisis and negatively impacting both producing and importing countries, including Iraq."
We are now seeing the impact of the war between Israel and Iran. Higher oil prices are a windfall for Iraq but will cost the USA at the pump. I doubt Trump will put up with one minute of this nonsense.
Government advisor: Foreign exchange reserves are the highest in Iraq's history.
The Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, confirmed on Thursday that Iraq is witnessing economic stability and developmental prosperity, with low inflation and unemployment and high growth. He also noted that foreign exchange reserves are the highest in Iraq's history.
“Iraq faces strong economic challenges in the geopolitical context due to the ongoing war in the Middle East,” Saleh told the official agency, followed by Iraq Observer. “This may be related to the movements of Iraq’s trade balance with the world, especially oil exports and energy markets. While the Gulf and the passage of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz represent approximately 30 percent of the flow of energy from its sources to the world, 99 percent of Iraq’s oil is currently exported through the Gulf and the aforementioned strait to world markets, especially the economies and markets of Asia.”
“The increase in crude oil prices, which jumped by nearly $10 before the recent outbreak of the Iranian-Israeli war, is a positive price shock,” he added. “However, at the same time, we must be careful about the consequences of the war and the safety of oil routes in the Gulf, without forgetting that import trade is also bearing risks represented by rising shipping and insurance costs and rising prices, which may increase with the escalation of conflict levels across the Gulf as well.”
He explained that "the positive external price factors in the value of oil exports, which are dependent on geopolitics, should not be the basis for sustainable fiscal policies based on oil revenues, which constitute a central component of public revenues and shape the 2025 budget schedules, unless stability is achieved and the threat of war in all its forms is eliminated."
Regarding the government's delay in submitting the federal general budget schedules for the year 2025, Saleh explained that "one of the requirements stipulated in the Triennial General Budget Law No. 13 of 2023 is due to the amendment of some paragraphs of the Federal General Budget Law for the three years 2023, 2024 and 2025 last February of this year, which were originally covered by Law No. 13 of 2023."
He explained that "this required systematic, practical and oversight communication between the House of Representatives and the government and its bodies represented by the Ministry of Finance to accurately and comprehensively monitor federal revenues and all financial procedures, especially the management of current operational and investment expenditures without interruption, as well as deficit financing."
He pointed out that "the delay in submitting the schedules was influenced by external factors, which are merely reflections of external geopolitical shocks, whether global trade wars, the energy markets experiencing some price contraction before their sudden improvement, or the beginning of indicators of a downward and upward oil asset cycle that should have been addressed by adjusting some spending rules."
Saleh pointed out that, "Despite the ongoing concerns raised during the first half of the current fiscal year, regarding complete financial stability, our country's financial situation has not shown any concerns. This is due to sound management and the high degree of compatibility between the country's fiscal and monetary policies, as monetary policy supports the country's financial policy with its foreign currency reserves, which are the highest in Iraq's history."
He emphasized that "during such periods, monetary policy plays its role in stimulating the domestic financing market with the strength of reserves, particularly in supporting and stabilizing liquidity and general cash flows in the country. This is done to ensure government development programs for the diverse and comprehensive infrastructure projects our country is witnessing, given their role in stimulating the labor market and businesses."
He continued, "All fears have been dispelled due to the mutual and cohesive immunities within the framework of the economic policy itself and the implementation of the government's program, coupled with high financial excellence and discipline."
He explained that “the delay in submitting the 2025 budget schedules to the House of Representatives did not prevent the implementation of the public finance program covered by the basics of the current general budget law, but the external circumstances and successive international economic shocks in the energy market, and the amendment to the current law No. 13, as we mentioned, regarding the issue of assessing the costs of extracting the region’s oil and its marketing costs, are what required time for partial adjustment in some of the constants and variables related to revenues, public expenditures, and deficit management.”
He pointed out that "these tables will be submitted in the coming period based on the provisions of Article 77/Second of Law 13, as mentioned above, which requires the House of Representatives to approve the general budget tables for the current fiscal year, which are now at the end of their preparations for presentation to the House."
He concluded by saying: “The strength of the coordination between the government’s general policies in the financial and monetary fields has dispelled all those concerns about the management of problems resulting from the global economic situation.
Rather, it is working in the interest of the sustainability of economic stability and sustainable development in our country, which is witnessing years of high stability and remarkable development prosperity, whether through low inflation rates, low unemployment rates, or high levels of growth, especially after the launch of the philosophy of strategic partnership between the state’s economy and the market, within the social market strategy that stipulates protecting the stability of citizens’ living standards and supporting the role of the market in investment, reconstruction, and development together.” link
The video transcript presents a skeptical and cautionary perspective on claims circulating in some online communities about an imminent Iraqi dinar revaluation (RV).
The speaker expresses disbelief at optimistic predictions from dinar gurus who expect the RV to happen once current conflicts settle.
Instead, the video outlines significant geopolitical and economic challenges that currently undermine the likelihood of such an event.
The Middle East is described as volatile, with over 40,000 U.S. troops deployed on high alert due to anticipated Iranian military action. The presence of the U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz moving into the Gulf further signifies rising tensions.
The transcript highlights the economic turmoil within Iraq and the Kurdistan region. The regional government struggles financially due to the federal government’s inability to support salaries, reflecting deeper fiscal instability. Compounding this, an Iraqi oil tanker recently caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil supply—exposing Iraq’s vulnerability in oil exports and its dependence on this route to deliver oil, notably to buyers like China. Since Iraq lacks alternative export routes for oil, any disruption poses a severe economic threat and heightens the risk of broader financial instability.
The video also discusses the political instability within Iraq, including factions calling for the expulsion of American forces and Iraq’s demand for a no-fly zone, which are politically symbolic but unrealistic given Washington’s control over airspace and the conflicting interests in the region, such as Israel’s military operations. The Iraqi dinar’s exchange rate is noted as being weak and unstable, trading around 143,400 dinars to 100 USD on the parallel market, showing no significant positive change that would indicate an RV is forthcoming.
Finally, the speaker advises viewers to be cautious, avoid hype, and focus instead on practical side hustles that do not require advanced skills or large time commitments, emphasizing the importance of maintaining realistic expectations amid ongoing instability.
Highlights
🛑 Skepticism toward Iraqi dinar revaluation claims amidst current Middle East conflicts
🚨 Over 40,000 U.S. troops deployed in the Middle East due to anticipated Iranian attacks
🔥 Iraqi oil tanker fire near the strategic Strait of Hormuz threatens oil exports
💸 Kurdistan region faces a salary crisis due to lack of federal funding from Baghdad
🕊️ Political factions inside Iraq advocate for the removal of U.S. forces, but Iraq lacks control
💼 Advice to focus on practical income-generating side hustles rather than speculative investments
Key Insights
⚠️ Geopolitical instability severely undermines economic predictability in Iraq: The deployment of tens of thousands of U.S. troops and heightened military alert status underscore the fragility of security in the region. This volatile situation, including the Iran-Israel tensions, makes any major financial event like an Iraqi dinar RV highly unlikely in the short term because governments and markets need stability to orchestrate such currency changes.
🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical vulnerability for Iraq’s oil-dependent economy: The fire on the Iraqi oil tanker near this vital passageway is symbolic of the precariousness of Iraq’s main export route. With no alternatives for exporting oil in comparable volumes, disruptions at this chokepoint not only threaten Iraq’s revenues but also affect wider geopolitical energy markets, which could deter foreign investors and trading partners.
💰 Federal funding shortfalls exacerbate internal Iraqi economic problems: The salary crisis in the Kurdistan region points to the federal government’s inability or unwillingness to meet financial obligations due to ongoing conflicts and budget restraints. This situation likely reduces domestic consumption and further destabilizes local economies, emphasizing the interconnectedness of security, politics, and economics.
🔄 Speculative enthusiasm about the Iraqi dinar RV may be misplaced and potentially harmful: Online “dinar guru” hype has persisted for over two decades, yet real-world conditions such as ongoing war threats, economic instability, and lack of political control undermine their claims. Investors relying on such speculation risk losses or delays, reinforcing the need for grounded perspectives in investment decisions.
✈️ Iraqi political demands, such as a no-fly zone, reveal limited sovereignty and influence: Despite vocal calls from Iraqi factions desiring removal of U.S. forces and controlling airspace, the reality is that foreign powers like the U.S. and Israel maintain decisive military presences. This limits Iraq’s autonomy and complicates any national efforts toward political stability or economic reform.
📉 Parallel market exchange rates reflect economic uncertainty and currency weakness: The dinar trading at approximately 143,400 IQD per 100 USD on the parallel market, down from previous rates, indicates continued depreciation and lack of investor confidence. Without official stabilization measures or improved economic fundamentals, currency revaluation remains improbable.
💡 Diversification through practical side hustles offers financial resilience amid uncertainty: The speaker emphasizes developing additional income streams that do not require advanced skills or heavy time investment. This advice reflects a pragmatic approach to personal finance by mitigating dependence on speculative outcomes like an RV, which are subject to geopolitical factors beyond individual control.
The video underscores the multifaceted challenges facing Iraq and cautions viewers to ground their expectations in the current geopolitical and economic realities, while encouraging practical steps to ensure financial security amid ongoing instability.
The gas sector receives exceptional attention from the Prime Minister.
The Ministry of Oil confirmed, on Thursday, that the gas sector has received exceptional attention from Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani.
A statement by the Ministry of Oil received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA) stated that "Undersecretary of the Ministry of Oil for Gas Affairs Izzat Sabir Ismail, during his speech at the Second Liquefied Natural Gas Forum, stressed the importance of government support for the gas industry and investment sector to achieve the ministry's goals and plans for optimal investment of this resource, in a way that supports the national economy and sustainable development."
He added, "The gas sector has received exceptional attention from Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs and Minister of Oil Hayan Abdul-Ghani, as the government has worked to support gas industry and investment projects, which have contributed to increasing national production of natural and liquid gas in accordance with the government program. The volume of gas investment in general has increased to more than seventy percent after it did not exceed fifty-two percent during the first year of the government's term."
He pointed out that "the most important of these projects, implemented by the Ministry and its national companies in cooperation with specialized international companies, are concentrated in the governorates of Basra, Maysan, and Dhi Qar, in addition to the central and Kirkuk fields.
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He explained that "achieving this exceptional leap in production represents a bright sign towards achieving our goal of stopping - and achieving zero - gas flaring during the period extending from 2028 to 2030, which in turn leads to the elimination of harmful emissions to the environment and public health, in addition to fulfilling our moral commitment to the 2016 Paris Agreement, which strengthens Iraq's position and role in the international community and the global energy sector."
The Undersecretary of the Ministry highlighted "the importance of "liquefied gas" as it represents a vital economic tributary that generates significant financial returns for the country and contributes to diversifying sources of income," noting that "the Ministry of Oil's support for this forum stems from its keenness to ensure the development of this industry through economic methods, approaches, and mechanisms built on sound foundations, achieving the highest benefit for the national economy."
The Undersecretary of the Ministry affirmed that "the forum is an important opportunity to exchange views, discuss technical and commercial challenges, and review development and expansion opportunities, in line with the government and ministry's plans in this field. We look forward today to constructive discussions and practical, implementable outcomes that will contribute to drawing a clear roadmap for the future of liquefied gas in Iraq."
The Undersecretary of the Ministry revealed "Basra Gas Company's plans to reach a production of more than eight thousand tons per day of liquefied gas in the next few years, as its current production stands at six thousand tons per day. Achieving this exceptional qualitative leap in production represents a bright sign for the gas sector." link
...in the past my CBI contact also told me the RV process in order to go forward hinged on this matter of Iran depended on either making a peaceful proposal or face a major conflict.
...I was told if attack and bombing scenario did play out, it would only delay the RV process going forward. I was also told at that time you would have to be “crazy” if you thought it could even happen with this all going on...
So, once again the Iranian leader Khamenei chose the path of evil and destruction.
Israel and the U.S. forces are now just carrying out that destined choice.
This is not to say we wouldn’t be close to the RV, only closer now as this Iranian scenario had to happen first.You must understand this is a “good thing” and not a negative event in the larger scheme of things. I know, I know it is hard to see how this could possibly be good for the RV, but at the end you will understand. It will all come together and you will see it.
