AUS REPORT MONITORS IRAQ’S “QUIET RETURN” TO THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET.
The American website International Policy Digest reported that Iraq is making a “quiet return” to the global energy scene, questioning whether it can transform oil into sustainable economic influence while still facing “institutional fragility” and ongoing political volatility.
The report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, explained that Iraq is quietly recalibrating its energy diplomacy as the global oil market enters a new phase of volatility, shaped by shifting geopolitical alliances, demand trends, and the rapidly increasing priority of the transition to green energy.
The report noted that Iraq’s recent agreements with China, India, and France indicate a strategic effort to diversify trade partnerships, allowing Baghdad to balance its economic future between Eastern and Western powers. However, it added, these deals reflect a larger dilemma: how to transform oil diplomacy into sustainable economic influence in a country that continues to face “institutional fragility” and ongoing political volatility.
The report considered that Iraq’s heavy reliance on oil has made Baghdad vulnerable to global economic shocks, adding that Iraq’s energy strategy has traditionally focused on exports to Western markets, and that ongoing political instability has led many Western companies to hesitate to invest in the long term.
To address this, Iraq has increasingly turned to Asia, and to a lesser extent, Europe, in its quest for economic stability and geopolitical importance, the report noted. China has rapidly emerged as Iraq’s energy partner, importing 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd), representing a third of Iraq’s oil exports despite not being formally part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese corporate investments are cementing Beijing’s role as another Asian power in energy diplomacy.
The agreement reflects a similar logic, demonstrating Chinese state-backed companies in Iraq’s reconstruction while gaining long-term access to strategic goods. However, as China consolidates its position through large-scale investments and control of commodities, another Asian power is gaining ground through a more aggressive form of energy diplomacy. India, now the world’s third-largest oil consumer, is increasing its purchases of Iraqi oil, with its purchases from Iraq expected to exceed those from Saudi Arabia by 2024.
In addition to this Asian component, the report stated that Iraq’s oil diplomacy with France adds a key European layer to Baghdad’s diversification strategy, including through the agreement with TotalEnergies in 2023. It added that the two-year suspension of the agreement, followed by its resumption, confirms Baghdad’s willingness to pursue deeper engagement with European stakeholders.
The report continued, “Most importantly, this agreement with the French also includes solar infrastructure, signaling the reality that the dominance of fossil fuels has an expiration date.” Equally important, the French partnership demonstrates Iraq’s desire to keep diplomatic doors open with the West, even as it expands eastward.
However, the report stated that Iraq’s energy landscape continues to be shaped by powerful regional players, including Iran and Turkey. Turkey has leveraged its role in Iraq’s electricity supply to exert political influence, but Baghdad’s repeated failure to pay for Iranian energy has led to recurring power outages, giving Tehran significant leverage over Iraq’s domestic stability.
After noting the often-complicated clash between Turkey’s ambitions to become a regional energy corridor and Iraq’s infrastructure constraints, the report explained that nowhere was this more evident than in the case of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, a vital oil export artery that has been out of service since 2022. Legal disputes over Kurdish oil exports and revenues have complicated its re-operation, although bilateral negotiations may be making progress.
Thus, the report stated that within the broader context, Iraq’s energy diplomacy appears simultaneously expansive and restrictive. On the one hand, Baghdad is expanding its economic base and diversifying its international partners, but on the other, its ability to implement a long-term political vision remains at risk due to internal divisions and external dependencies.
The report went on to explain that the Iraqi government’s current five-year plan requires greater economic diversification, but without deeper structural reform, oil diplomacy risks becoming a short-term solution to governance failures.
However, the US report considered Iraq’s advanced strategy to have significant weight, explaining that with the shift in global demand for oil and the geopolitical transformation of energy toward a multipolar system, mid-level producers like Iraq can play a significant role in shaping future energy dynamics.
He added that Baghdad’s balancing policy of building relationships across Asia and Europe, while avoiding over-reliance on any one party, is part of a strategic hedging strategy. The success of this strategy hinges not only on its reliance on international engagement, but also on the country’s ability to rebuild local institutions and policy infrastructure.
The report concluded by stating that “energy diplomacy in Iraq is about more than just barrels and buyers,” explaining that it reflects a broader experience, and questioning whether the resource-rich but “politically fragile” country can turn economic need into geopolitical advantage.
He continued by saying that if Iraq succeeds, its emerging energy strategy could mark the beginning of a new chapter, one that relies not only on diversifying its buyers, but also on recalibrating its foreign policy. He explained that by courting both Eastern and Western powers, Baghdad is asserting itself not only as a passive source, but as an increasingly deliberate player in the future of global energy policy.
Shafaq.com