MarkZ
[via PDK]
Question: Is this attack on Iraq the start of the RV or a distraction?
MarkZ: Maybe it's both. We may be heading to a culmination here.
With this unrest gas and oil prices are about to go up…they may spike in the next day or two…which will mean a spike at the gas pumps...oil prices are in the low 70’s right now…an oil price spike would put Iraq well above the number they needed to revalue their currency.
As part of efforts to protect domestic industry, the Iraqi Cabinet has approved the imposition of an additional 20% customs duty on imported aluminium cans used for carbonated beverages, juices, and energy drinks.
This brings the total tariff to 50% per unit of measurement, applicable to imports from all countries and origins.
The measure will be in effect for four years without reduction, with implementation to begin four months after the decision date.
The General Authority for Customs has been tasked with enforcing the additional tariff and regularly informing the Ministry of Industry and Minerals of the quantity and value of imports, as well as the additional revenues collected.
The ministry will assess the effectiveness of the tariff in protecting the domestic producer, including the complainant's ability to meet local market demand, and will review the policy one year after implementation in line with the Product Protection Law.
(Source: Iraqi Government)
Walkingstick
Iraqi banks are mirroring our banks in the United States.
IMO these International standards are not for 1310. They're not. It makes no sense.
That's why 1310 has become silent. ; It doesn't make sense internationally.
It doesn't make sense logically. There has to be a new rate...
Real GDP in Iraq is expected to increase by 1.2 percent this year, according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report.
This represents a significant reduction on the previous forecast of 3.5 percent growth, issued in January.
The report says:
"In non-GCC oil exporters, current account balances are expected to deteriorate, mainly reflecting lower oil prices and a slowdown in oil exports, with increases in imports in Algeria and Iraq".
Growth projections for 2026 have been revised upwards to 4.4 percent, with 3.1 percent expected in 2027.
Click here to download the full report.
To browse our comprehensive library of reports on Iraq, click here.
(Source: World Bank)
DINAR EXCHANGE : HOT HEADLINES FROM IRAQ
1. Kurdish–Baghdad Oil Revenue Clash Escalates
Baghdad has halted salary payments to public employees in the Kurdish region over alleged revenue-sharing failures, accusing Erbil of oil smuggling and non-compliance. Kurdish authorities denounce it as “collective punishment,” affecting thousands amid deepening tensions .
2. Iraq’s OPEC Oil Strategy: Cuts to Stabilize Markets
In May, Iraq cut oil output to meet OPEC+ quota compliance, even as OPEC+ overall output rose slower than planned. Reuters notes Iraq intentionally reduced production to compensate for previous overproduction .
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3. Legal Clampdown on Kurdish Oil Smuggling
Iraq’s Oil Ministry has formally deemed the Kurdish region legally responsible for ongoing crude smuggling and may take action. The dispute includes stalled talks on resuming pipeline exports via Turkey .
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4. Central Bank Reserves Bouncing Back
As of May 22, Iraq’s foreign reserves increased to $98.8 billion, up from $97.9 b in early May, signaling stronger liquidity despite pressures on current account balances .
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5. Iraq Ranks #2 Arab Seaborne Oil Exporter
In May, Iraq averaged 3.27 million bpd of seaborne exports, second in the Arab world. This aligns with export strategies to remain within OPEC thresholds .
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6. Major Infrastructure & Trade Moves
•Iraq Development Road receives international attention—TIR transit agreement now active, linking Asia to Europe by mid‑2025 .
•Collaborations with the UK: A £12.3 billion trade package covers infrastructure, defense, and 5G networks aimed to fuel long-term economic reform .
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Why This Matters for the IQD Revaluation Narrative
•Energy revenues drive fiscal health: Oil export stability, stronger reserves & infra deals form the bedrock of any future currency strength.
•Internal disputes pose risk: Kurdish revenue standoffs and pipeline disruptions could undermine macroeconomic stability.
•CBI strength vs. currency stability: Reserves restoral suggests liquidity—key but not a signal of immediate RV.
Bottom line: Oil policies and geopolitical rifts with the Kurdish region are currently the central levers shaping Iraq’s economy. These lay the groundwork—but still no official signal—for any dinar revaluation. Official CBI announcements remain the only credible triggers. #iraqidinarinvestor