Thursday Coffee with MarkZ. 06/05/2025

Thursday Coffee with MarkZ. 06/05/2025

Thursday Coffee with MarkZ. 06/05/2025

Some highlights by PDK-Not verbatim

MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context.  Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions

Member: Good morning everyone, happy to see you all on this great Thursday morning!

Member: A long time ago….we were told that just before the RV/reset there would be lots of confusion, misinformation and chaos.  Then quiet…….I really hope we are in the quiet part right now 

MZ: It is eerily quiet everywhere. I am salty that this is taking so long. 

Member: I am salty too.,…but, I still believe!

Member: Mark I got me a hat says “salty crew” maybe we all need one? Haha

Member: Can’t be salty…you get accused of whining. Just sayin ….so I don’t speak anymore.

Member: We ARE moving forward...just havent hit Warp Drive yet...JUST IN: President Trump holds telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade.

Member: MTWGA= Make The World Great Again!!!!!!

MZ: I continue to hear from bond folks there is great expectations for the weekend. 

MZ: Some historical asset sources believe the Russian/Ukraine flare up could slow things down…but bankers disagree. They believe things are moving forward as we speak. 

Member: Isaac (bond holder) posted, he had his appointment today and should get his confirmation Tuesday or Wednesday.

MZ: “Economist: Expanding bank transfers contributed to the decline of the price of the dollar” they want us to know their banking reforms have been affective. Things are starting to operate through the international banking system. 

MZ: “Oil Minister from London: Iraq will achieve self sufficiency in white products by the end of the year” In other words they say they are ahead of schedule. 

Member: Could a less-corrupt nation have been selected as the trigger to get this all started?

Member: I think Sudani is trying…..But, They move at a snails pace in the Middle east….and many in the past were very corrupt…

Member: Most countries are corrupt anymore…..Nesara and Gesara are supposed to fix that -if it would ever happen. 

Member:  There is a banking holiday in Iraq from the 6-10!  Cover for the RV?

MZ: Yes we are coming up on an extended banking holiday in Iraq. My sources are seeing older lower denominations from the Saadam Hussein era in circulation. 

MZ: I was also told by one Iraqi whose spouse works in the banking industry that they are circulating a “cut-sheet” showing what the new lower denominations are going to look like in Iraq. That is a very good sign. 

Member: Our banker was so excited to hear about it being close....she makes our wire transfers for silver

Member: This is like the last 10 min of a Hallmark movie…misunderstanding and then everything is fixed.

MZ: LOL- That is eerily accurate.

Member: Please God let this month be the month.

Member: I think we should all have a day of fasting and prayer to bring this to pass if we have faith the size of a mustard seed nothing shall be impossible to us -Matthew 17

Member: Let's do this thing. this weekend sounds good to me. been here 15 years and this is the closest we've ever been.

Member: Happy Birthday Blessings and Wishes for anyone celebrating today!

 StacieZ joins the stream today. Please listen to the replay for her information

FIREFLY: the dinar is gaining against the dollar in our country. @DINARREVALUATION #iraq #iqd

 

FRANK26: "SO FAR SO GOOD".

 KTFA

FRANK26: "SO FAR SO GOOD".........F26

Sudani's financial advisor: Cooperative hypermarkets reduced demand for the parallel dollar and prevented a rise in inflation.

 

5/29/2025

 

Baghdad/Iraq 

The Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Saleh, confirmed that the hypermarket policy has effectively contributed to reducing demand for dollars on the parallel market, which has had a positive impact on price stability.

He explained in a press statement that this policy helped prevent inflation rates from rising, keeping them within the 3% range, noting that the measures implemented have boosted market confidence.

He added that the proliferation of hypermarkets has encouraged merchants to shift toward importing through official dollars instead of parallel currencies, which has contributed to regulating market activity and financing foreign trade in a legal and stable manner.

LINK

SAMSON: The dollar's decline improves citizens' living standards and monetary policy

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE FALLING DOLLAR RATE 

 Samson 

 Article: "Economist: The dollar's decline improves citizens' living standards and monetary policy." 

Quote: "Economic expert Salah Nouri confirmed that the continued decline in the dollar exchange rate carries with it multiple positives that are directly reflected in the lives of Iraqi citizens...

The decline in the dollar exchange rate leads to a significant decline in import costs, which positively impacts commodity prices in local markets... Citizens will be able to purchase larger quantities of goods, especially basic food items and medicines, 

which will help alleviate their living pressures... 

The  economic expert emphasized that this decline reflects a clear improvement in the monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of Iraq, noting that it contributes to reducing dollar acquisitions and speculation, thereby enhancing overall economic stability in the country." 

GROUP PAYOUTS AT REDEMPTION CENTERS: Dinar/Dong = double-digit USD , Notification Phase underway

 

FRANK26: "FIX THE EXCHANGE RATE"

 KTFA

FRANK26: "FIX THE EXCHANGE RATE"..........F26

Foreign reserves between inflation targeting and external rent shocks

5/29/2025

 

Dr. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al-Mansour

   

 

---

Monetary policy relies on a fixed exchange rate system to guide the real exchange rate towards the short-term target inflation rate. This system is appropriate for the Iraqi economy, as real output values ​​are linked to global prices due to the unilateral structure of the economy and the sharp decline in the contribution of non-oil exports to fixed capital formation.  Therefore, the fixed exchange rate system was a realistic option to avoid the erosion of the value of the dinar.
Due to the impact of external rent shocks, controlling foreign reserves (dollars, gold, and securities included on the asset side of the Central Bank's balance sheet as Iraq's external debt) has become an instrumental approach to managing the Central Bank's responses to the aforementioned shocks. This involves regulating exchange rate fluctuations, targeting inflation rates. Inflation can rise and fall due to external rent shocks, leading to fluctuations. Therefore, the Central Bank uses its reserves to sterilize the dinar's expansion through dollar purchases and sales, and cash transactions in the stock market, both buying and selling, to achieve the target exchange rate. The movement of foreign reserves is linked to public spending on oil revenues in dollars after the Central Bank exchanges them for dinars to meet demand from the private and public sectors, as well as government and household purchases. Depending on the surplus and deficit in the balance of payments, reserves grow or shrink. When oil revenues rise, the central bank refrains from financing the budget deficit, and the government reduces its spending, aiming to raise foreign reserves to be used to finance the budget deficit when oil revenues decline again.
Foreign reserves witnessed a significant increase due to the positive shock in the second half of 2021, reaching 3.244 million barrels per day at an average price of $110 per barrel. This increased Iraq's surplus in public finances and overall external balances, as reserves exceeded $90 billion, helping to stabilize the stabilization system and inflation targeting. However, with global oil prices heading towards a negative shock this year (2025) to less than $60 per barrel, and the Central Bank continuing its sterilization policies and measures towards international compliance, this led to a decline in reserves to less than $97 billion in March 2025, after having been around $105 billion in December 2024. Due to the recent shock, the Central Bank resorted to compensating by increasing its foreign exchange sales.

Therefore, in light of external rent shocks, we see the need for coordination between government policy and the Central Bank. From the government policy side, spending must be restricted to purely technical limits, thus deepening the reduction of the government deficit and strengthening the strategic role of reserves. Monetary policy must sustain its goal of achieving a stable inflation rate by managing the movement of the dollar exchange rate and demand for it in the interest of price stability and reducing costs in favor of rational spending policies. Achieving low and stable inflation is an important factor in enhancing the local and foreign investment climate, which is linked to related economic policies, including commercial, agricultural, and industrial policies.

In short, the dependence of foreign reserve volatility on external shocks will remain a limiting factor in the national economy's ability to combat inflation and support the investment climate. Therefore, two levels of optimal solutions can be identified. The first, at the strategic level, involves sustained coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. The second, at the macro and structural level of the Iraqi economy, lies in addressing the rentier nature of the economy by gradually increasing the contribution of non-oil GDP to meet aggregate domestic demand, while supporting export diversification policies.

LINK

 

BROTHERS TECHNOLOGY: Sounds like something was discussed without announcing a discussion.

 BROTHERS TECHNOLOGY

Sounds like something was discussed without announcing a discussion. The Presidency of the Iraqi House of Representatives expresses its deep regret at the decision of the Ministry of Finance in the Federal Government to cut the salaries of the employees of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

This measure will inevitably harm citizens in the region and create an economic crisis, which is contrary to the decisions of the Federal Court and the Constitution, which guaranteed the rights of all citizens in all governorates.

The Presidency of the Council calls on the federal government to reverse the decision, especially as we are on the verge of the blessed Eid al-Adha, and the strength and entitlements of the people must not be linked to political issues and technical issues, 

and sitting at the table of dialogues and understandings is the best way to solve problems and files and address issues between Baghdad and Erbil.

Presidency of the Iraqi House of Representatives Wednesday 2025/6/4