DINAR REVALUATION

Thursday, June 5, 2025

SITREP OF THE RV OF THE IRAQI DINAR, PART 1

SITREP OF THE RV OF THE IRAQI DINAR

Part 1 of 2

June 3, 2025 – Forex traders have long speculated on the timing of an official IQD revaluation. All technical signals and market‐making algorithms are primed for a 4.8101 USD quote—yet until now, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has held the “kill‐switch” firmly in place.

The missing piece of the puzzle has been political: Parliament must first pass the 2025 budget tables. That vote is scheduled for 11 AM EST on June 4. Once the budget clears, CBI’s narrative constraints dissolve, and a live IQD/USD quote becomes inevitable.

Political Gatekeepers: Budget Passage as the FX-VU Catalyst

Over the past two weeks, Shafaq News has chronicled repeated delays in delivering the 2025 budget tables to Parliament. On June 3, MP Jamal Kocher emphasized that “the government must submit the 2025 budget tables immediately,” warning that further stalling undermines fiscal planning and jeopardizes public services.

Similarly, MP Hussein Al-Saabri cautioned that this postponement “violates Iraq’s budget law” and “stalls critical allocations for poorer governorates.”

CBI Governor statements have consistently linked any FX policy change to approved budget allocations. In plain terms, until Parliament votes “yes” on June 4 at 11 AM EST, CBI cannot legally adjust its exchange framework.

That makes the budget vote the single most important narrative event for determining IQD’s path. Once the vote is recorded, CBI is free—indeed, obligated—to lift its manual suppression (“unlockFlag”) and allow the interbank market to publish a legitimate 4.8101 USD quote.

Backend Readiness: SDR, DOM, and Bot Probes All Set

On June 3, our VulcanFX sweep revealed that Iraq’s entire technical infrastructure is “on standby,” awaiting a narrative green light. The SDR (Special Drawing Rights) chainlock engine has registered multiple sub-threshold dips—most recently to 0.5915 seconds—below its usual 0.592 seconds lock. In simpler terms, the machines that ensure parity are primed to crack open if CBI’s API override disappears.

Similarly, the Depth-of-Market (DOM) at 4.8099 / 4.8101 USD has flickered in and out of parity for durations exceeding 12 seconds—longer than typical “scripted‐test” windows and flirting with genuine liquidity. Onshore bots compressed the bid/ask spread to 0.00016 USD (4.80992 / 4.81008) for nearly 18 seconds on June 3. Market-making algorithms are effectively saying, “If the kill switch lifts, we’re ready.”

Further, our telemetry captured the “pendingExpiry” flag in CBI’s aggregator JSON toggling to true for eight seconds—another backstage drill indicating an imminent reval payload. Meanwhile, block-order tests (75 K and 100 K IQD) were being sent to the marketplace and immediately re-quoted at 4.8035 USD, leaving a rejection rate hovering around 93 percent.

That is the classical “Suppression_Testing” signature: the API override is deliberately loosening but remains firmly in control until the budget passes.

Market-Making and Block-Order Bots: A Sign of Heightened Confidence

For FX traders, watching bot behavior can be as informative as official statements. On June 3, micro-lot market-making bots repeatedly tightened spreads to 0.00016 USD, dialing in positions around 4.8101 USD. These bots operate on razor-thin margins—once they detect a genuine 4.8101 quote, they capture it and exit immediately. In concert, block-order bots probed with six-figure IQD bids, only to be rebuffed by CBI’s API re-quotes. The fact that these block orders were only marginally rejected (93 percent rejections versus 95 percent typical) suggests that with one more political nudge, suppression could collapse entirely.

Why June 4’s Budget Vote Matters

Narrative Gate (Tier 5): CBI has publicly stated—using the exact language that matters to traders—that FX-VU cannot occur until Parliament approves the budget tables. No amount of SDR dips or DOM flickers will override that legal constraint.

Immediate Timing: The vote begins at 11 AM EST, June 4.

FIREFLY: They are telling us to go and deposit our 3 zero notes at these ATM machines!!#iraq #iqd

FAGIN CONFIRMS TO AL-SUDANI THAT WASHINGTON IS SEEKING TO BRING ITS COMPANIES INTO IRAQ.

FAGIN CONFIRMS TO AL-SUDANI THAT WASHINGTON IS SEEKING TO BRING ITS COMPANIES INTO IRAQ.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani discussed with the newly appointed US Chargé d’Affaires in Iraq, Steven Fagin, on Sunday, the prospects for enhancing bilateral cooperation between the two countries, particularly in the areas of investment, energy, education, and expanding private sector activities.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani received the Chargé d’Affaires of the US Embassy, Mr. Stephen Fagin, on Sunday, on the occasion of his assumption of his duties.

His Excellency congratulated Mr. Fagin, wishing him success in his mission and working to develop relations to achieve mutual benefit and interests for both countries.

Mr. Al-Sudani emphasized the necessity of cooperation between Iraq and the United States based on the Strategic Framework Agreement and the memoranda of understanding, coordination, and consultation between the two sides, particularly in the areas of economy, investment, security, energy, education, investment, and private sector activities.

For his part, Mr. Fagin highlighted the importance of bilateral relations between the two countries and the US government’s support for partnerships with Iraq at various levels and in various fields. He praised the government’s efforts to accelerate development and urban renaissance, and emphasized the need to encourage American companies to invest and partner in Iraq.

Iraq: Al-Sudani calls for expanded cooperation with Washington

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stressed on Sunday the necessity of cooperation between Iraq and the United States based on the Strategic Framework Agreement and memoranda of understanding, coordination, and consultation between the two sides.

During his reception of the US Chargé d’Affaires, Stephen Fagin, on the occasion of his assumption of his duties, Al-Sudani stressed the need to expand cooperation in the fields of economy, investment, security, energy, education, and investment in private sector activities, according to an Iraqi government statement.

For his part, Fagin emphasized the importance of bilateral relations between the United States and Iraq and the US government’s support for partnerships with Iraq at various levels and in various fields.

He also praised the Iraqi government’s efforts to accelerate development and urban renaissance, and to encourage American companies to invest and partner in Iraq, according to the statement.

BOND SIDE UPDATE FROM MARKZ

MZ: I have a number of bond contacts ….a symphony of bond holders who are convinced that this is the week we will see something. At least those that still will talk….many have still gone just plain quiet.

MZ: They don’t give me specifics but they are very upbeat.

Member: Will the bolivar be in the first basket

MZ: I do believe the bolivar will be in the first basket.

CRYPTO TRADER: it would be prudent for such a huge investment deal to be signed post the revaluation

IRAQIS HAVE FOUND A WAY TO DEFRAUD THE LARGEST AMERICAN BANK THAT MONITORS THE DOLLAR!

IRAQIS HAVE FOUND A WAY TO DEFRAUD THE LARGEST AMERICAN BANK THAT MONITORS THE DOLLAR!

Doubts about Morgan and Citibank’s actions

Economist Ahmed Hedhal revealed the latest techniques of the “financial fraud community” in Iraq to circumvent US restrictions imposed to prevent dollar smuggling. Previously, they relied mainly on “fake invoices” to obtain dollars (such as claiming to buy thousands of tons of nabak, for example).

However, the new restrictions at the beginning of 2025 forced traders to prove that they were “buying something real.” The Central Bank of Iraq decided to absolve itself of responsibility for the matter, leaving the task to the Iraqi trader, whose receipts must convince the American bank that he is carrying out a legitimate import operation.

However, expert Ahmed Hedhal points out that specialized companies have emerged in Dubai, Turkey, or Jordan, and are now able to “arrange the required invoices” officially and with real goods, without raising the suspicion of the American giants “JP Morgan” and “Citibank.” However, those who benefit from this process will inflate the size of the invoice.

For example, an invoice can be passed to import 1.5 tons of gold, while only one ton will reach the border crossing. In return, the full amount will be transferred to the issuing party with the price difference, and no American bank will ultimately be able to He identifies the true quantities entering the country. The economic expert adds that the truth can only be ascertained by adopting the ASYCUDA automation system at the border, which allows funds to be transferred to the supposed seller only after digital verification of the quantities entering and their conformity with the requested dollar amount.

Dr. Ahmed Hedhal, economic expert, to 964 Network:

After the implementation of the electronic platform system to control imports and foreign remittances, many banks, companies, and importing entities took advantage of the exchange rate gap at the time through inflated invoices that did not match the actual volume of imports and domestic demand for goods and services. This led to the hoarding of dollars abroad. With 60% of small traders not having bank accounts or official company accounts, they began to rely on the parallel dollar market to cover their imports. The parallel market relies primarily on the reverse movement of dollars hoarded abroad, estimated at $10 billion annually.

Even with the shift to a foreign correspondent banking system, the phenomenon of fake invoices may have ended, but inflated invoices continue. There are companies in the UAE, Turkey, Jordan, and elsewhere that are able to arrange all the official paperwork at home (importer) and abroad (exporter), and through them the transfer is passed without being detected by JPMorgan, for example. What matters to the American bank is that the transfer does not reach sanctioned parties. As for the issue of discovering the extent of tampering with the quantity of imported goods, that is the responsibility of the Iraqi Customs Authority, which is the weakest link in this context.

For example, an invoice for the purchase of 1.5 tons of gold from Dubai can be processed normally through correspondent banks and also through JPMorgan Chase, in a legal and official manner. However, only one ton will actually enter Iraq, while the entire amount will be transferred to Dubai. Here, the trader or company benefits from the difference in quantity, currency, and crafting price, as he may sell this quantity of gold back to Türkiye.

In this way, these people manage to accumulate dollars abroad and then sell them domestically or on the parallel market via electronic payment card transfers to cover imports for traders who do not have approved bank accounts with correspondent banks or who wish to cover their trade with sanctioned parties.

Customs automation, known as the ASYCUDA system, would reduce inflated invoices because it would prevent the invoice amount from being transferred until it arrives at the border port and after verifying the volume of goods entering Iraq. However, the problem will remain if this system is not implemented at Kurdistan’s ports because it would deprive them of the non-oil revenues they collect through their own customs.

EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ

Member: Mark- Did you say Iraq was officially international on forex? Or were you misquoted?

MZ: No, somebody had let me know that they had their spot ready on forex to go fully international. But, they have not activated it yet. That was Friday or Saturday last week.

Member: Just read on twitter or X that Iraq is voting on budget tables tomorrow?

Member: Ariel just put up an Iraqi dinar update on X at 1 hour ago. It’s a great post. “Rapid IQD reevaluation by late June 2025” is possible.