DINAR REVALUATION

Monday, May 26, 2025

FIREFLY: the dinar is gaining against the dollar in our country. @DINARREVALUATION #iraq #iqd

Nuclear talks fizzle: Iran-US hopes fade

Shafaq News/ Hopes for a breakthrough in the ongoing nuclear talks between Iran and the United States appear to be fading, as momentum from earlier rounds has cooled and the latest session ended with only modest progress. While some diplomats speak of cautious optimism, Iranian officials and analysts are expressing growing frustration, pointing to what they see as Washington’s increasingly rigid demands.

The fifth round of indirect negotiations, hosted by Oman at its embassy in Rome, wrapped up on Friday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the meeting as “the most professional,” highlighting a “clearer understanding from the American side of the Iranian position.” Oman’s Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, acknowledged progress, though he stopped short of calling it decisive. A date for the next round has yet to be announced.

These Muscat-based talks—conducted through intermediaries—have emerged as one of the last surviving diplomatic backchannels between Tehran and Washington. Their importance has only grown since the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the landmark agreement that once placed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activity. That deal, signed under President Barack Obama, imposed a cap of 3.67% on uranium enrichment and limited Iran’s stockpile to 300 kilograms. But following the US withdrawal under President Donald Trump in 2018, Iran has ramped up its enrichment levels to 60%—dangerously close to weapons-grade.

Fading Hope

Inside Iran, there is a growing sense that the talks are drifting off course. Saeed Sharoudi, a Tehran-based expert on Iranian affairs, noted a clear shift in the mood of Iran’s negotiating team.

“The enthusiasm we saw in the early rounds has worn off,” Sharoudi explained to Shafaq News, adding that the team feels Washington’s stance contradicts earlier claims of readiness for a fair deal that would lift sanctions.

That shift, according to Sharoudi, is rooted in Washington’s continued imposition of new sanctions during the negotiations. “The United States, it seems, wants a one-sided agreement,” he remarked, where Iran halts its nuclear activity while sanctions remain untouched.

More than 1,500 US sanctions have been reimposed on Iran since 2018, targeting banking, shipping, and the energy sector. The pressure caused Iran’s economy to contract sharply, shrinking by over 6% immediately after the US exit from the JCPOA. Although there was some recovery in 2023 due to deepening trade ties with China and Russia, Iran’s access to global financial markets remains limited, fueling domestic discontent.

Sharoudi added that Washington’s position appears aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear ambitions altogether. “The demand to reduce uranium enrichment to zero is something Tehran cannot agree to,” he explained. For Iran, such a step would incapacitate its nuclear infrastructure. “Without enriched uranium, the facilities would effectively shut down,” he said, warning that the consequences would be far-reaching.

There is growing skepticism within the Iranian political class that the US genuinely wants a solution. “Iran is beginning to understand that the US is not genuinely seeking a solution to the nuclear file,” Sharoudi observed. Instead, he believes Washington’s promises to lift sanctions and welcome Western companies mask deeper intentions to undermine the entire program.

Race Against Time

Across the Atlantic, time is shaping up to be a critical factor, especially for the White House. Haitham al-Hiti, Professor of Political Science at the University of Exeter in the UK, believes the clock is ticking more loudly in Washington than in Tehran. “The timing will settle everything,” he remarked to Shafaq News, noting that the US administration is working on a faster timeline than Iran’s.

For President Donald Trump, speed is of the essence. “Trump does not want two years of his administration to pass without resolving these issues,” al-Hiti said, pointing to the pressure of looming elections. “Failure to reach a deal could weaken Trump in Congress and limit his ability to make major decisions,” he added. “He’s unlikely to let a full year go by without taking decisive steps.”

With Republicans currently holding the House and Democrats maintaining a narrow edge in the Senate, the midterm elections in November 2026 could dramatically shift power dynamics. Trump, who returned to office in January 2025, has made a new Iran deal one of his foreign policy priorities—but divisions within his administration over how far to go remain unresolved.

That sense of urgency, al-Hiti noted, is something Tehran is trying to exploit. “The Iranians are playing on this matter,” he said. “They give promises, delay responses, and try to stretch the talks over two years, hoping the Democrats will return to Congress and the Senate, weakening Trump’s hand.”

Two rounds left?

Aqil Abbas, an expert in US political affairs, pointed to a narrowing window for action. “Trump spoke of a negotiation ceiling of about two months,” Abbas mentioned in comments to Shafaq News. “I believe there may be only two sessions remaining before a decision must be made.”

Abbas contrasted this approach with past strategies. “Trump and the Europeans want to avoid the drawn-out process of previous talks, which lasted nearly a year and a half without results,” he explained. Europe appears aligned with Trump’s push for a faster resolution. A recent EU statement urged an “urgent restoration of full JCPOA compliance” while recognizing that “adaptations may be required in light of new realities.”

The US president, Abbas noted, is seeking to secure a result quickly, leaving time to measure its effectiveness. “An agreement is expected. What remains is the form in which it will be presented.”

Concessions on the table

While both sides remain tight-lipped about specifics, Abbas predicted that any deal will likely depend on Iranian compromises, especially on uranium enrichment. “The agreement will likely involve major Iranian concessions on enrichment,” he assessed. In exchange, the US may offer broad economic relief—possibly a full lifting of sanctions.

He emphasized the stakes: both sides, he believes, are trying to avoid conflict. “The most important thing is that both sides steer clear of military options or war. And that is a positive outcome.”

Weekend Coffee with MarkZ. 05/24/2025

Weekend Coffee with MarkZ. 05/24/2025

Some highlights by PDK-Not verbatim

MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions

Mod: GOOD MORNING ALL! LET THE PARTY BEGIN! HAPPY BIRTHDAY MARK! MANY BLESSINGS ON YOUR SPECIAL DAY!

MZ: Thank you all for the Birthday wishes!!!

Member: Also- Happy Memorial weekend everyone!

Member: So many rumors that we're so close

Member” Bank Screen at SouthState Bank says: Due to system maintenance as we welcome Independent Financial customers services may be temporarily unavailable Saturday and Sunday...!!!!

MZ: Memorial Weekend is a crazy time to make it unavailable.

Member: Not slow according to Bruce it’s going down today since it didn’t yesterday. He also stated this is for real it’s this weekend.

Member: A friend that got me into this has their Iraq contact that they heard 3.48 for a sat night to sun morning kick off

Member: Bank story: Called credit union 5/23 2 ask when credit cards wld be relinked on app (every1 rec’d new tap cc’s in May). I said “this new QFS sys” is gonna b gr8!” She agreed & said it’s coming soon!

MZ: “US State Department SPOX (spokesperson?) hails Kurdistan regions $100 billion energy deals with American firms” This is coming at a key time.

MZ: We also have “US Department of State Secretary Rubio and Barzani at Friday 1:30 pm est and 8:30 pm Erbil” they met in the US and they had two different meetings I was told. It was hailed as a “breakthrough” for oil to start flowing from that region and for them to settle all disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdish region.

Member: MarkZ, please enlighten us regarding what must still happen before we RV.

MZ: I was told over a decade ago that when those two came together- we would see a change in value of the dinar. That is why I watch this.

MZ: “Maximizing non-oil revenues reaches 60%: Expert identifies Iraq’s needs “ They are 60% done towards their goal. This is part of the stability of the Iraqi economy. I did not know they were this far along in progress.

MZ: “As Chinas economy weakens, Tens of thousands of workers protest against unpaid wages” These protests started before Trump was president. There are serious weaknesses in the Chinese economy that they have been covering up.

MZ: I have zero updates from bonds, groups and even redemption center folks. This is the biggest “quiet” I have ever seen in my life. Very Eery

Member: Happy Birthday Mark. Thank you for being here for us. Keep up the hard /good work

Member: A Wonderful Happy Birthday MarkZ And StacieZ

Member: Have a blessed and happy Memorial Day Weekend to everyone.

The CBD Gurus join the stream today. Please listen to the replay for their information.

THE CONTENT IN THIS PODCAST IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY&NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE ANY PROFESSIONAL, FINANCIAL OR LEGAL ADVICE. PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN MARKZ’S OPINION ONLY

EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ: "We are in a 36-48 hour window" #iraq #iqd @DINARREVALUATION

Iraq targets overseas refineries to boost oil revenue

Shafaq News/ Iraq is exploring investments in high-capacity overseas refineries to secure steady crude sales and maximize revenues, with a particular focus on fast-growing Asian markets, according to Nizar Al-Shatri, Director General of the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO).

In an interview with Asharq, Al-Shatri said 75% of Iraq’s oil exports are directed to Asia, citing the region’s accelerating demand and expanding refining capacities, especially when compared to European and North American markets.

China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, and Malaysia remain Iraq’s top crude buyers.

Al-Shatri explained that investing in foreign refineries would allow Iraq to secure fixed refining quotas, shielding exports from market volatility.

“We aim to work with reputable clients who operate high-capacity refineries in various markets to absorb price fluctuations without affecting export volumes,” he said.

SOMO is currently pursuing long-term partnerships with major refiners across Asia, Europe, the Americas, and several African markets. These deals typically allow Iraq to sell crude at official prices, while benefiting from price differentials during market surges—taking 65% of the profit, with partners retaining 35%. In case of losses, the foreign partner bears the cost.

Al-Shatri reaffirmed Iraq’s commitment to OPEC+ quotas, stating that the country respects its production ceiling—currently set near 4M barrels per day (bpd), though Iraq’s full production capacity is closer to 5.5M bpd.

“This discipline has helped stabilize the global oil market,” he said.

Iraq has, however, expressed past concerns over OPEC+ restrictions, as it seeks to rebuild its economy and expand trade following decades of conflict and sanctions.

Al-Shatri also clarified that condensates and associated gas are included in production figures for some fields to enhance crude quality, but stressed these should be reported separately as they are not technically crude oil.

In 2024, Iraq exported approximately 1.2B barrels of oil, generating nearly $95B—accounting for over 90% of the country’s total budget revenues.

SOMO also utilizes the spot market to generate additional profits. Al-Shatri noted that in one recent year, this strategy brought in $80 million in bonus revenue.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Iraq needs oil prices around $92 per barrel to balance its 2025 budget. Meanwhile, global oil benchmarks such as Brent crude are trading significantly lower, hovering near $65 per barrel—intensifying pressure on public finances.

Founded in 1998, SOMO oversees Iraq’s oil sales and has managed domestic fuel imports since 2003 to fill gaps in gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and liquefied gas supplies.

SANDY INGRAM: Iraqi IQD Analysis (Exchange Rates: May-June 2025) Buy, Hold and Sell

Summary

In the currency update for May and June 2025, several exotic currencies show promising trends against the US dollar, driven by a mix of domestic economic improvements, global financial developments, and geopolitical shifts.

The Indian rupee stands out with a strong buy recommendation as Bank of America revises its forecast to 84 per US dollar by December 2025, reflecting stable economic fundamentals, supportive monetary policies, and improved current account balances due to lower oil prices.

Similarly, Asian currencies like the South Korean won and Taiwanese dollar have appreciated thanks to anticipated US trade deals that might include currency exchange clauses, prompting these countries to limit dollar interventions; these are marked as “wait and see” decisions.

The South African rand exhibits resilience despite global economic uncertainties, underpinned by governmental efforts to stabilize the economy and foreign investment prospects, as well as its BRICS affiliation—a coalition quietly making strategic moves beyond mainstream media attention. Investors are advised to monitor gold prices, cryptocurrencies, and BRICS news weekly to capitalize on potential opportunities.

The Vietnamese dong continues to experience tight currency management by the State Bank of Vietnam, with gradual depreciation expected to maintain export competitiveness amidst US tariffs and dollar strength.

This presents a strategic contrast with Iraq’s currency approach: the Iraqi dinar remains pegged at about 1,310 IQD per US dollar and is a highly speculative asset due to limited convertibility and fixed exchange rates.

While Iraq’s oil wealth offers long-term potential, the dinar is unlikely to appreciate significantly without a move towards a floating exchange rate or major reforms. Investors are advised to hold existing dinar assets while diversifying into other low-cost currencies.

The channel encourages ongoing vigilance and engagement, especially considering the possibility of Iraq allowing the dinar to float at some uncertain future point, either early next year or later. A membership program offering insider access to Middle East exchange explorations is also promoted.

Highlights

💹 Indian rupee forecast revised to 84 per USD by December 2025, signaling strong buy potential.
🌏 Asian currencies like the South Korean won and Taiwanese dollar appreciating due to expected US trade deal currency clauses.
🇿🇦 South African rand shows resilience supported by BRICS membership and economic reforms.
🪙 Gold prices are advised to be monitored regularly as a stable investment opportunity.
💻 Cryptocurrency is worth monitoring; stay alert for developments surrounding the Iraqi dinar.
🇻🇳 Vietnamese dong managed tightly but expected to depreciate slightly to maintain export competitiveness.
🇮🇶 Iraqi dinar remains fixed and speculative; recommendation to hold and diversify portfolio.

Key Insights

💹 Indian Rupee’s Upward Trajectory Reflects Robust Economic Fundamentals: The rupee’s appreciation outlook hinges on India’s stable growth, progressive monetary policies, and the positive impact of lower oil prices on its current account deficit. This combination makes the rupee attractive for investors looking for emerging market exposure with some stability. Bank of America’s revised forecast signals growing investor confidence and may reflect stronger foreign equity inflows, suggesting India remains a key driver in the Asia-Pacific financial landscape.
🌏 Anticipated US Trade Deals Are Influencing Currency Policies in Asia: The expected inclusion of currency exchange rate clauses in future US trade agreements is causing Asian nations to limit direct interventions in their currency markets. This strategic move not only fosters currency appreciation but also aligns local policy with global trade frameworks, potentially reducing volatility and promoting healthier trade balances. This presents investors with a nuanced “wait and see” stance, hinting at potential upside but caution given ongoing trade dynamics.
🇿🇦 South African Rand’s Stability Is Bolstered by BRICS and Economic Stabilization Efforts: South Africa’s role as a founding BRICS member and its internal policies aiming at economic stabilization provide a foundation for the rand’s resilience. Although external uncertainties persist, this geopolitical bloc’s growing influence and covert strategic moves may hint at future economic integration and investment opportunities that are presently underappreciated by mainstream audiences. Investors monitoring BRICS developments could uncover hidden gems.
🪙 Monitoring Gold Remains Crucial Amidst Economic Uncertainties: The recommendation to follow gold closely, having started investing at $1,900 an ounce and seeing prices rise to over $3,300, highlights gold’s role as a safe haven and hedge against turmoil. In uncertain markets, gold’s intrinsic value and historical preservation of wealth make it an essential component of a diversified portfolio. This underscores the importance of physical or digital gold investments as part of long-term financial planning.
💻 Cryptocurrency and Iraqi Dinar Present Contrasting Risk Profiles: While cryptocurrency continues to be an area of interest, it carries volatility and speculative risks. In contrast, the Iraqi dinar remains a unique case: tightly controlled, with a fixed exchange rate and speculative status largely fueled by misinformation and scams. The dinar’s potential is tied to possible future reforms like moving to a floating exchange rate, but until such changes materialize, it remains a “hold” with cautious diversification suggested. This highlights the need for due diligence and informed decision-making in lesser-known currency markets.
🇻🇳 Vietnam’s Currency Management Reflects Strategic Export Competitiveness: The Vietnamese government’s deliberate strategy to manage the dong tightly, allowing for a modest depreciation, is aimed at preserving export advantages amid US tariffs and dollar strength. This mode of currency management underscores how emerging markets can harness monetary policy to bolster trade while mitigating inflationary pressures. Investors should recognize such policies as indicators of a country’s economic priorities and stability.
🇮🇶 Iraq’s Dinar Remains Speculative Pending Financial Reform Amidst Oil Resource Potential: Despite Iraq’s vast oil reserves offering considerable long-term economic promise, the dinar’s current fixed peg and limited market convertibility leave it speculative. The potential for meaningful appreciation is contingent upon Iraq adopting a free-floating currency regime or implementing comprehensive financial reforms — events that are uncertain in timing. This creates both risk and opportunity for investors who must balance asset holding with diversification to mitigate exposure to illiquid or controlled currency environments.

Overall, the May–June 2025 currency outlook emphasizes a diversified approach: favoring strong emerging market currencies supported by fundamental growth, while maintaining vigilance on geopolitical and monetary policy shifts. Gold and select cryptocurrencies complement this strategy, with a watchful eye on BRICS developments shaping future investment landscapes. Meanwhile, speculative assets such as the Iraqi dinar require patience, due diligence, and a cautious approach until political and financial reforms drive clarity and unlocking of value.