THE DOLLAR’S EXCHANGE RATE IS STABILIZING TOWARDS ITS TARGET: ADAPTATION OR ADJUSTMENT?
Dr. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al-Mansour
It became clear in the period from last April until this May that the dollar exchange rate in Iraq began to stabilize, declining towards the (official) target level. Therefore, a question may be raised in this context: Is this stability the result of “adaptation” or “adjustment”?
To answer this question, we examine the reality of monetary policy measures that strengthened the foreign exchange signal’s response to the downward trend, which can be described in the following paragraphs:
1.The Central Bank’s restrictive policy of controlling dollar sales to banks through transparency measures for transfers of unclear origin aimed at combating smuggling. This increased the official supply and eased pressure on the exchange rate.
2.The effectiveness of monetary policy in financing foreign trade through highly rated correspondent banks, within the framework of the US Treasury and Federal Reserve’s conditions. This is in addition to the trend toward settlement in euros, yuan, and UAE dirhams, which has facilitated remittance transactions in our trade with China, Turkey, and the UAE.
3.Added to this is the decline in demand for the dollar due to the increased level of banking compliance with international conditions on dollar transfers to prevent their smuggling to Iran, Syria, and Turkey via Iraq. As a result, suspicious transfers have decreased, and illicit demand for dollars has declined, contributing to the stability of the dollar exchange rate.
4.The effectiveness of the Central Bank’s foreign reserves management to compensate for the decline in the dollar supply in the parallel market, thus curbing the exchange rate towards the target.
5.The effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy led to a slowdown in the rise in the general price level (inflation) in Iraq, which limited the phenomenon of dollarization and raised the real value of the dinar.
6.Decline in speculation in the parallel market. Following the regulatory measures, the activity of unlicensed money changers and speculators who artificially raised prices declined.
7.The effectiveness of financing travelers in dollars through the official rate using payment cards at reduced costs and at the official exchange rate of 1320 dinars per dollar, in addition to collecting cash dollars through Iraqi airports, in the amount of 3000 dollars at the official rate for each traveler per month who carries an electronic payment card.
8.External international factors related to a general weakness in purchasing power in global markets and a decline in stocks, which caused a decline in the value of the dollar and a rise in gold, leading to a decline in demand for it globally and locally.
From the above-mentioned reasons, we find that exchange rate stability, despite its importance as a short-term objective of monetary policy, was achieved through “adjustment,” i.e., a short-term price adjustment trend resulting from short- or medium-term measures and treatments for exchange rate fluctuations. The aim was to restore temporary economic equilibrium without changing the basic structure of the economy and without deep-rooted long-term policies, which reduces the effectiveness of targeting the exchange rate at the long-term target level. Stability could have been achieved as a result of long-term structural “adjustment” by following long-term policies as follows:
1- Decrease in demand for the dollar due to the availability of agricultural or industrial GDP revenues as a substitute for imports.
2- Improvement in the balance of payments thanks to non-oil agricultural and industrial exports.
3- Structurally reforming the banking system and activating the role of monetary tools, especially the interest rate structure, in a way that restores the overall balance to its natural state without a split between what is real and what is monetary.
4. Reducing rentierism by diversifying the economy through allocating resources based on foreign trade to generate national surplus value. The result: more sustainable stability, as the economy becomes less dependent on external factors.
If the current balance remains in place, the dollar supply will still be vulnerable to depletion within a year of imports if oil exports cease due to wars and threats, for example, or if the economy is exposed to similar external shocks. Furthermore, reliance on reserve management and other stringent measures will not be sufficient to ensure long-term exchange rate stability.
In conclusion, while ensuring that the exchange rate stabilizes near its target level is a significant achievement for monetary policy, the absence of structural reforms, economic diversification, improving the business environment, combating corruption, and other factors will make any exchange rate stability vulnerable to reversal, particularly with oil price fluctuations, political crises, and external shocks. This underscores the importance of planning for long-term structural adjustment at the macroeconomic policy level.
