😊So, once again all the chatter in the news from Iraq is about the dinar and how strong it is slowly becoming.
Everyone should take the time to look of the articles on this subject matter and they can be found in the Articles Section. Do think this topic is HOT right now and why all the talk about it now? Do you think six (6) articles on this subject matter are in the news for a reason? Are you kidding me, of course it is important. We are about to see a monumental change in the dinar.
“MONETARY POLICY RAISES THE VALUE OF THE DINAR AND REDUCES RELIANCE ON THE PARALLEL MARKET”
“AL-NUSAIRI: OUR DINAR CONTINUES TO RECOVER UNTIL IT REACHES THE OFFICIAL PRICE.”
“MOST NOTABLY, THE TRAVELERS’ DOLLAR. AL-SUDANI’S ADVISOR REVEALS THE REASONS FOR THE EXCHANGE RATE’S DECLINE.”
“THE SECRETS OF “BLACK TRADE”… FACTION TACTICS BRING THE DOLLAR BACK TO 140,000 DINARS”
“THE DOLLAR’S EXCHANGE RATE IS STABILIZING TOWARDS ITS TARGET: ADAPTATION OR ADJUSTMENT?
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“9 REASONS FOR THE SUDDEN DROP IN THE DOLLAR IN IRAQ: AN ECONOMIST EXPLAINS”
Going Forward…
So, what do I mean by “monumental change” of the dinar? Lots of questions and so let’s dive into what is happening going forward in Iraq to satisfy your curiosity.
😊Now I want to present yet more amazing news to you from the IMF. In the article titled “COOPERATION BETWEEN IRAQ AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND”. There are two events to point out to you today from this article:
1.Determining the most appropriate tax systems for the Iraqi social situation
Iraq and the International Monetary Fund agreed to strengthen relations with foreign correspondent banks in the field of foreign trade financing.
2.An agreement was reached to support the use of the Iraqi dinar in economic transactions to maintain the stability of the local currency.
Both of these events are going to move the dinar yet higher. The one I like the most is #2 which is basically telling us that the dinar (not the dollar) will soon be used to conduct economic transaction, meaning to be used in trade between Iraq and its trading partners. Yes, it a time to make that next step and liberate the Iraqi dinar yet even more.
9 REASONS FOR THE SUDDEN DROP IN THE DOLLAR IN IRAQ: AN ECONOMIST EXPLAINS
An economic expert revealed the reasons behind the sudden drop in the US dollar’s exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar over the past few days, noting the possibility of the US currency continuing its decline.
Over the past few days, Iraqi markets have witnessed a significant decline in the dollar exchange rate against the dinar on the parallel market, approaching 1,420 dinars per dollar, a level very close to the official rate after accounting for associated costs. According to the economic expert, “This decline reflects multiple changes in supply and demand within the local market and raises questions about the factors behind it.”
Iraqi economic expert Munar Al-Abidi pointed to nine reasons that led to the decline in the value of the US currency in Iraqi markets:
First: Declining demand versus abundant supply
The main reason for this decline is a decline in demand for dollars on the parallel market, coupled with a significant increase in the supply of hard currency within the market. “This new balance has contributed to narrowing the gap between the parallel and official rates,” according to Al-Obaidi.
Second: Investors shift towards gold
The economist pointed to a decline in confidence among some local investors in the dollar as a savings instrument, especially with growing expectations of a decline in its value against gold. This trend prompted many to cash in their dollar holdings and convert them into gold as a safe haven, increasing the supply of dollars in the market.
Third: Dollar inflow from non-oil sources
According to Al-Obaidi, the amount of dollars coming from outside Iraq has increased, “particularly from foreign investments and financial transfers from international companies operating within the country, which has boosted the dollar supply, regardless of oil sales.”
Fourth: The decline in the money supply of the dinar
The Central Bank of Iraq has reduced the dinar money supply by more than 6 trillion dinars over the past six months, from 104 trillion to approximately 98 trillion dinars. This contraction has led to a relative increase in the value of the dinar, which has put downward pressure on the dollar, according to Al-Obaidi.
Fifth: Declining imports and trade contraction
Despite a 6% increase in imports from China, exports from key countries such as India, Turkey, and the United States declined. Import data from the UAE—Iraq’s largest trading partner, which accounts for 30% of its total imports—is expected to arrive, according to Al-Obaidi. “The figures are likely to reveal a decline, reflecting an economic contraction and a decline in general demand, thus declining the need for dollars.”
Sixth: Diversify channels for obtaining dollars at the official price.
The recent period has witnessed an expansion in access to dollars at the official exchange rate, through bank transfers, cards, and direct transfers. Many merchants have adapted to these channels, reducing their reliance on the parallel market.
Seventh: The impact of regional conditions
Al-Obaidi explained that the deteriorating economic situation in Iran led to a decline in demand for goods imported from Iraq, especially since a portion of these goods were re-exported to Iran. Furthermore, the halt in trade with Syria—which also received a portion of Iraqi goods through re-export—contributed to a decline in demand for imports and, consequently, for the dollar.
Eighth: Pressure on the smuggled oil trade
Markets also witnessed a tightening of Iranian oil smuggling channels, which had been used by the Iraqi market to obtain dollars. This restriction reduced the amount of dollars required for these activities, thereby contributing to easing pressure on foreign currency.
Ninth: Decline in the trade of prohibited substances
Illicit trade has declined as a result of the cessation of its sources, including drug and similar trade, a large portion of which used to be conducted with Syria and which placed significant pressure on the dollar price on the parallel market, as this trade was covered through the parallel market.
The economic expert emphasized that all of these factors combined have created an environment that has driven the dollar’s exchange rate down. Given these indicators, it is expected that the US currency will continue its decline, approaching 1,395 dinars per dollar in the coming period, unless there are fundamental changes in monetary policy or the regional and international situation.
Once the parallel market gap is gone and the dollar matches or better (1:1), the CBI official rate of 1320, my contact told me the “official” rate will then revalue.
My guess is it will be around 1166ish or better. They might go straight to 1 dinar = $1 dollar even. Was 1166 not the “official” rate of the Dr Shabibi era when in 2012 he announced the Project to Delete the Zeros was targeted for the fall of that year? I think Ali Alaq has a better plan going better because he can, while in Dr Shabibi era Iraq was still under sanctions.
This is how it works:
Remember for your thought process that a rise in the rate of the dinar is less dinars to the US dollar not more.
I know it is backwards to what some believe as we call a rise usually means more not less. So, actually it is a downward trend in the number of dinars to make up one US dollar. This strengthens the dinar.
So, if the official rate is 1320 we want the dollars in the parallel market to reflect the same or less rate of 1320.
IRAQ’S CUSTOMS REVENUES REACHED 59 BILLION DINARS AFTER IMPLEMENTING THE ASYCUDA SYSTEM.
Finance Minister Taif Sami announced on Friday a significant increase in customs revenues following the implementation of the ASYCUDA Customs Automation System, amounting to more than 59 billion dinars.
Sami said in a statement to the official agency, followed by “Al-Eqtisad News,” that “customs revenues before the implementation of the ASYCUDA system amounted to 375,675,732,360 dinars, while after the implementation they rose to 435,421,672,805 dinars, an increase of 59,745,940,445 dinars.”
She added, “The General Authority of Customs has begun implementing the ASYCUDA system in 15 customs centers, including: Air Cargo Customs, Dry Port, Baghdad International Airport Terminal, Grand Welcome Square Customs, Trebil, Safwan, Arar, Umm Qasr Middle, Umm Qasr South, Kirkuk Airport, Zurbatiyah, Al-Mundhiriyah, Mandali, Al-Shaib, and Al-Shalamcheh.”
She explained that “the Authority has currently begun implementing the second phase of the system, which will extend over two years. This phase includes its implementation in eight remaining customs centers, in addition to linking 12 electronic applications to the system, including: land transport clearance, the value system, smart selectivity, the exemptions system, and licenses and certificates. This will enable the system to be linked with all ministries.”
I want everyone to know that I have thought about having a “live” conference call however with my very busy schedule this simply is not possible right now.
As we get closer to the reinstatement perhaps, I can juggle some time to do short update calls while we exchange or are about to exchange.
This way you do not have to wait till the next Newsletter to get answers to your questions at that critical time.
However this is up to each and every one of my readers as I cannot do all this without some appreciation for all my efforts of research and calls to Iraq.
Also, these up-front audio snip-its I include with the Newsletters are VERY, VERY important. You may want to listen carefully to them and then maybe even replay them. They are chock-full of information. Listen carefully!
In today’s news I want to point out again the rise of the dinar against the dollar continues.
Many economists believe that the rate of the dollar will SOON be equal to the “official” CBI rate of the dinar.
Does this sound like 1:1 to you?
Let’s break it down. So, if the dollar on the parallel market does reach 1320 that’s 1320:1320, is it not?
Then the official rate:parallel market rate, right?
Is this not the same as 1:1? Can you see why they had to get this parallel under control for the next stage of currency reform which in the next in-country revaluation?
Okay all you mathematicians out there – what do you think? Do you get it now? Do you see it now? “WOW! WOW! WOW!” again… Do you see now why I have been placing so much emphasis on this parallel market?
Heck, it was not me alone but the CBI too, of course with the efforts from my CBI contact. “WOW! WOW! WOW!” again… Choo-Choo!
Why would they tell us this if there was not some substance to it. In the articles today we get both sides of the story about the rising dinar and so we can make up our own “opinions” on this matter.
So is this rise in the dinar being permanent or just a short phase. But if you do remember all the FACTS we have been reading like the US cutting off the dollar supply, the correspondent banks and June’s next move and so on and so forth. You can’t forget what you learned from the past.
So, let’s stick to the main issues. Let’s stick to the FACTS and see where it gets us. The main issues are:
1.Will the trend in rise continue or not? 2.Are the causes of this trend from the CBI monetary reforms or other factors,
3. or are you going to believe in false claims of other short-term reasons, which would allow the dinar to drop again?
I’d like to believe that the CBI reforms are now kicking in as the reason for the rise in the dinar.
In fact the director of the CBI told us it was himself. There is also more substantial proof that this is the case. Yes, these other factors help too. They have told us over and over again that they needed time for the reforms to work and so now we see them working now.
All currencies have an element of “speculation” involved to drive up or down the rate very quickly.
But, we in my blog are looking at trends and not speculation. We must look at all the information as a whole of what we have been reading from the past and current news to draw our conclusions.
And the conclusions show us all indicators the rise in the dinar is being orchestrated by the CBI, as the dinar is slowly being pulled out the “sanctioned” mode and put back into circulation with the rest of the world, for the rest of the world.
Just keep remembering there is a process to do this work and it simply does NOT happen overnight as many of these idiotic, stupid intel gurus want you to believe
.
My CBI contact has told me that the Iraqi dinar must get off the sole de facto peg to the US dollar to realize (show) any real value of significance.
This can only happen using a “basket” of currencies for the new peg.
This will only happen with a reinstatement back to FOREX is applied.
But for now, we take each step slowly and with an understanding of what is happening. We watch and wait for the next step and then the next and next. This is our choo-choo ride and the stops along the way are the steps to get the reinstatement…remember?
Yes, it is all happening NOW not years from NOW. It is right in our faces now only many can’t see it, want to believe and yet since all these other articles play a role for the significance of the actions of the CBI in the monetary reform process.
Yes, many of these intel gurus are all too busy with their fantasy intel guru bullshit and it has clouded their reality.
What can we expect, most likely in 2025?
Once the parallel market gap is gone and the dollar matches or better (1:1), the CBI official rate of 1320, my contact told me the “official” rate will then revalue.
My guess is it will be around 1166ish or better. They might go straight to 1 dinar = $1 dollar even. Was 1166 not the “official” rate of the Dr Shabibi era when in 2012 he announced the Project to Delete the Zeros was targeted for the fall of that year? I think Ali Alaq has a better plan going better because he can, while in Dr Shabibi era Iraq was still under sanctions.
This is how it works:
Remember for your thought process that a rise in the rate of the dinar is less dinars to the US dollar not more.
I know it is backwards to what some believe as we call a rise usually means more not less. So, actually it is a downward trend in the number of dinars to make up one US dollar. This strengthens the dinar.
So, if the official rate is 1320 we want the dollars in the parallel market to reflect the same or less rate of 1320.