Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Iraqi Dinar RV: The Number’s Set, Just Not Public Yet! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinar #iraq

Al-Sudani acknowledges the "actual" realization of the budget deficit , 23 APRIL

Al-Sudani acknowledges the "actual" realization of the budget deficit

4/21/2025

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani acknowledged on Monday that the federal budget deficit has been realized.

In his speech during a meeting with the head and members of the Dhi Qar Provincial Council, as reported by Shafaq News Agency, Al-Sudani said, "In our government, the budget deficit has actually appeared to achieve accomplishments, and there is efficiency in spending, performance, and work, while the previous deficit was planning."

He added, "Our government has arranged the spending mechanism according to the principle of the most important, then the important, and we have worked in many sectors and achieved positive results," indicating, "In the 2024 budget, (156) trillion dinars were spent out of (213) trillion planned, including (90) trillion for salaries, (40) trillion for operational, and (13) trillion for ministries and governorates' projects."

Last year's budget amounted to 211 trillion dinars, with revenues estimated at 144 trillion and 336 billion dinars, while expenditures amounted to 210 trillion and 936 billion dinars, and the deficit was 63 trillion and 599 billion dinars. LINK

CRYPTO TRADER : MP: The budget cannot be delayed and Parliament will discuss it next week, 23 APRIL

CRYPTO TRADER

MP: The budget cannot be delayed and Parliament will discuss it next week

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Corruption, Mismanagement, Unemployment, and Poverty in Iraq: A Comprehensive Economic Analysis and Path Forward

Corruption, Mismanagement, Unemployment, and

Poverty in Iraq: A Comprehensive Economic

Analysis and Path Forward

BY: Shatha Kalel
Introduction
Over two decades after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, Iraq continues to face a series of interconnected structural challenges that hinder its economic and social development. These include widespread financial and administrative corruption, chronic mismanagement, high unemployment, and alarming poverty rates. Despite possessing abundant natural resources, particularly oil, Iraq has struggled to transform this wealth into sustainable growth and social prosperity.

The following analysis examines these crises through a comprehensive economic lens, shedding light on their root causes and interconnectedness. It also presents targeted policy recommendations for addressing Iraq’s socio-economic vulnerabilities and fostering long-term stability.

I. Financial and Administrative Corruption: A Systemic Threat
Corruption in Iraq is not merely a peripheral issue—it is a systemic crisis deeply embedded in public administration and economic policy. According to estimates, hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost to corruption over the past two decades, placing Iraq consistently among the most corrupt nations globally, according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.

This rampant corruption has depleted the state treasury and crippled the government’s ability to finance public goods and services. Key sectors—including healthcare, education, infrastructure, and industrial production—have deteriorated due to embezzlement, inflated contracts, and ghost employees. Corruption networks, often linked to political factions and militias, exert significant influence over state institutions, undermining regulatory oversight and the rule of law.

II. Mismanagement and the Fragility of the Oil Rentier Economy
Iraq’s economy remains overwhelmingly dependent on oil, which accounts for over 95% of government revenue. This “rentier state” model exposes Iraq to volatile global oil markets, leading to alternating periods of boom and bust. For example, the 2020 collapse in oil prices resulted in an 11% contraction in GDP, while a rebound in prices in 2022 temporarily boosted growth to 9.3%.

Such volatility hinders medium- and long-term economic planning. The absence of economic diversification leaves Iraq vulnerable to external shocks, exacerbates fiscal imbalances, and limits job creation. Successive governments have failed to develop productive sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology, thereby deepening the country’s structural dependence on oil.

Furthermore, the management of Iraq’s oil revenues is complicated by international arrangements. Under U.S. Executive Order 13303, Iraqi oil funds are held in the “Iraq-2” account at the U.S. Federal Reserve, allegedly to protect assets from international claims. While this framework offers a degree of legal protection, many Iraqis perceive it as a restriction on national sovereignty. Recent moves to replace the Central Bank’s currency auction with direct international transfers may signify a step toward financial autonomy.

III. Unemployment and Poverty: A Social Time Bomb
The social repercussions of corruption and mismanagement are dire. Iraq’s unemployment rate reached 16.5% by early 2024, while the poverty rate stands at approximately 22%, affecting more than 10 million Iraqis. This economic insecurity is compounded by years of war and displacement, which have created approximately 6 million orphans and 2 million widows.

An estimated 4 million Iraqis live in informal settlements or slum areas, lacking access to clean water, healthcare, education, and other basic services. These conditions not only erode human capital but also fuel resentment, instability, and migration.

Public sector employment remains the largest source of jobs, yet it is bloated, inefficient, and unsustainable. The private sector is underdeveloped, constrained by poor infrastructure, corruption, and lack of access to finance. Young Iraqis entering the labor market face limited prospects, which contributes to social unrest and brain drain.

IV. Policy Recommendations: Toward a Resilient and Inclusive Economy
To address these structural challenges, Iraq must adopt a comprehensive national reform agenda that targets both economic diversification and institutional rebuilding.

1. Anti-Corruption Framework

Establish an independent anti-corruption commission with prosecutorial powers.

Digitize government services and public procurement to increase transparency.

Enforce asset declarations and auditing for public officials.

2. Economic Diversification

Invest in agriculture and agribusiness to reduce food imports and create rural jobs.

Promote small and medium enterprises (SMEs) through targeted credit programs.

Develop strategic industries, including renewable energy, construction, and information technology.

3. Labor Market Reform

Modernize vocational education and training

to align with market needs.

Facilitate public-private partnerships to absorb youth into the workforce.

Introduce labor-intensive public works programs in infrastructure and housing.

4. Social Safety Nets

Expand conditional cash transfers targeting vulnerable households.

Provide housing subsidies and basic services in marginalized areas.

Prioritize mental health and social reintegration programs for orphans, widows, and IDPs.

5. Fiscal and Monetary Reforms

Revise the budget structure to prioritize capital investment over operational spending.

Strengthen the independence and capacity of the Central Bank of Iraq.

Renegotiate the legal framework for managing oil revenues to restore financial sovereignty.

Conclusion
Iraq stands at a critical juncture. While the challenges of corruption, unemployment, poverty, and mismanagement are daunting, they are not insurmountable. With strong political will, institutional reforms, and an inclusive economic vision, Iraq can chart a new course toward prosperity and stability.

The road to recovery requires more than just financial resources—it demands courageous leadership, civic engagement, and an unwavering commitment to justice and equity. Only then can Iraq reclaim its rightful place as a stable, prosperous, and sovereign nation.

Economic Unit/North America Office
Al Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

WOLVERINE:“ This was the holdup… now we are ready to go" @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinarinvestor

APIKUR Pushes for Written Agreements in Ongoing Kurdistan Region Oil Export Negotiations, 22 APRIL

APIKUR Pushes for Written Agreements in Ongoing Kurdistan Region Oil Export Negotiations

4/20/2025 ERBIL —

Member companies of the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) reiterated their call for formal written agreements during the latest round of discussions with Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) officials over the resumption of oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.

The meeting, held on April 20, focused on the necessary conditions to restart oil flows that have been suspended for over a year. While all sides presented their positions on a range of technical and legal matters, no final agreements were reached.

APIKUR member companies emphasized the need for fair implementation of Iraq’s federal budget law, especially regarding the role and responsibilities of an independent consultant tasked with overseeing oil production and exports. They also stressed that any future arrangements must not infringe on existing contracts with international oil companies (IOCs), which have been upheld by Iraqi courts.

Crucially, APIKUR is seeking written agreements that provide clear guarantees on payment terms and the settlement of outstanding arrears. According to a statement from the organization, the member companies "did not receive satisfactory assurances" on these key issues during Saturday's meeting.

In an effort to move the talks forward, several APIKUR members have submitted draft sales and lifting agreements, along with detailed recommendations for the independent consultant’s scope of work, to both KRG and federal Iraqi officials.

Despite the lack of immediate progress, APIKUR reaffirmed its readiness to resume exports—contingent on securing signed agreements that protect the fiscal and economic terms of their existing contracts.

The talks come amid growing pressure to resolve the impasse, which has had significant financial implications for both the federal and regional governments, as well as oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region. LINK

TIDBIT FROM MARKZ, 22 APRL

MarkZ

I keep hearing there is a rate tucked into the budget tables…and they are doing their best to stall the budget until they get the clearance to “GO”…

That is the rumor I am getting out of Iraq from Iraqi sources.

“Why is it important for American companies to visit Iraq?”

For stability of course. There are a number of US and International companies that signed with the private sector. They need this for the reform process.

DINAR REVALUATION