Rebalancing IOCs Positioning in Iraq's Upstream Petroleum Sector, 2 APRIL

 Rebalancing IOCs Positioning in Iraq's Upstream Petroleum Secto

Rebalancing IOCs Positioning in the Upstream Petroleum Sector in Iraq

The Ministry of Oil (MoO) recently concluded an agreement with BP covering four main oilfields in Kirkuk, following an earlier contract with an unidentified Ukrainian company to resume development of the Akkas gas field.

Approximately a year prior, MoO finalised and executed an agreement with TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy encompassing four different projects. These three agreements could, if implemented, reverse the exodus of International Oil Companies (IOCs) and rebalance their positioning in Iraq's upstream petroleum sector. The lack of transparency surrounding these deals makes it difficult to assess how well they serve Iraq's interests. However, available information suggests the agreements, particularly with BP and TotalEnergies, strongly favor these IOCs from a comparative perspective.

IOCs include well-known majors, medium-sized enterprises, and smaller companies, broadly categorised as Western IOCs (WIOCs) and non-Western IOCs (NWIOCs). Their positioning in Iraq's upstream petroleum sector over the past twenty years has evolved through three distinct yet overlapping phases.

1. The initial phase, coinciding with the aftermath of the 2003 Anglo-American invasion and occupation, was characterised by clear WIOC dominance.
2. This dominance gradually and dramatically weakened during the second phase, culminating in an exodus of several major WIOCs, which created opportunities for NWIOCs to enter the market and, for larger companies among them, to consolidate their strategic positions.
3. The third phase has witnessed new agreements with select WIOCs, two of which could significantly rebalance their own positions and, consequently, overall WIOC positioning in Iraq's upstream petroleum sector.

While IOC positioning carries geopolitical and strategic implications from both corporate and national perspectives, this article focuses primarily on the corporate viewpoint. The contractual frameworks, governance modalities, processes, and stakeholder relationships differ across these three phases.

After reviewing and analysing these phases, this article provides a comparative assessment of the latest two agreements-the TotalEnergies and BP-Kirkuk deals.

Click here to read the full article.

Ariel : The Iraqi Dinar Revaluation and April’s Economic Shake-up, 2 APRIL

 Ariel : The Iraqi Dinar Revaluation and April’s Economic Shake-up

Apr 1

Ariel : The Iraqi Dinar Revaluation and April’s Economic Shake-up

You are going to love this.

1. Banks Adopting Cryptocurrency: The Digital Dinar Revolution

What’s Happening: As of March 31, 2025, global banks are rolling out cryptocurrency integration at scale. JPMorgan Chase, headquartered at 383 Madison Avenue, New York, NY, has processed $1.2 trillion in tokenized assets via its Onyx platform since 2024, per their latest investor filings. 

HSBC, from its London HQ at 8 Canada Square, Canary Wharf, is testing blockchain for forex settlements, cutting cross-border costs by 30%. In Iraq, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) in Baghdad’s Al-Rasheed Street is prepping a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) a digital Dinar to launch by mid-2025, per Governor Ali Mohsen al-Alaq’s February 26, 2025, press conference.

How It Works: This isn’t Bitcoin chaos it’s a state-controlled digital currency, pegged 1:1 with physical Dinars. Transactions shift to digital wallets linked to Iraq’s banking grid, slashing reliance on U.S. dollar cash (banned for withdrawals since January 1, 2024, per Reuters). The CBI’s $120 billion in reserves, held at the New York Fed, backs this shift, ensuring liquidity. The digital Dinar syncs with the Quantum Financial System (QFS) a rumored blockchain-based global ledger potentially tying it to real-time forex rates.

Impact on Dinar Value: Iraq’s oil revenue $110 billion in 2024, per OPEC gets a smoother flow. Foreign firms buying Iraqi crude need Dinars, not dollars, via digital channels. Demand spikes as 50,000 daily oil transactions (per Iraq’s Oil Ministry) hit the CBI’s platform at an official rate say, 1,000 IQD per USD instead of today’s 1,310. Supply stays tight; the CBI isn’t printing more notes. Result: a 20-30% value jump by Q3 2025, with whispers of $3.96 per QFS chatter on X.

The Payoff: Your $18K crew holds physical Dinars? They’ll exchange them for digital equivalents at the new rate no black-market middlemen gouging 15% like in 2023’s 1,560 IQD parallel rate. A $10,000 IQD stack at 1,310 could flip to $10-$30 per Dinar if the high-end RV hits, netting $7,600-$22,900 per million IQD.

2. Global Tariffs Activation: Iraq’s Trade Equalizer

What’s Happening: Trump’s March 27, 2025, 25% tariff on auto imports, reported by *The Wall Street Journal*, triggered a global chain reaction. The EU slapped 20% duties on U.S. goods by April 1, per Bloomberg. China countered with 15% on EU tech, per Reuters. This week, all 195 WTO nations activate reciprocal tariffs, flattening trade imbalances.

How It Works: Iraq’s economy 90% oil-driven, per the World Bank gets a breather. Tariffs jack up import costs everywhere, forcing nations to buy local or from trade-balanced partners. Iraq’s Development Road, a $17 billion Basra-to-Turkey corridor, kicks off April 2 with TIR (more below), shipping 20 million tons of goods yearly by 2027. Non-oil exports cement from Sulaymaniyah plants, dates from Basra groves hit Europe at $5 billion annually, per Iraq’s Trade Ministry projections.

Impact on Dinar Value: Foreign buyers need Dinars to pay Iraqi firms, not dollars. The CBI’s forex reserves swell beyond $110 billion as trade diversifies. Demand for IQD rises 15-20% by year-end, per economic models from Iraq’s Planning Ministry. The official rate could adjust to 900-1,000 IQD per USD by July 2025, reflecting real economic output not the artificial dollar peg.

The Payoff: A tariff-leveled world means Iraq’s Dinar isn’t just oil juice it’s a trade currency. Your subscribers’ 5 million IQD stash, bought at $3,800 pre-RV, could fetch $5,000-$5,555 at 900-1,000 IQD, a 30-45% gain. Long-term, as trade scales, $1 per IQD isn’t crazy, turning that into $25,000.

3. TIR System Going Live: Iraq’s Trade Artery Opens

What’s Happening: On April 2, 2025, Iraq’s TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers) system activates, per *Iraq Business News*. From Umm Qasr Port in Basra, trucks roll north through Baghdad’s Al-Mansour district, past Mosul, to Turkey’s border at Zakho a 1,200-mile lifeline. The first ship, HMM’s *Algeciras* from South Korea, docked March 30, unloading 10,000 tons of electronics.

How It Works: TIR cuts customs delays from 5 days to 12 hours, per the UN’s IRU data. Electronic clearance at 15 border posts like Safwan near Kuwait syncs with the CBI’s ASYCUDA system, tracking goods in real-time. Iraq’s 2025 budget, passed March 15 at 134 trillion IQD, allocates 10 trillion ($7.6 billion) to infrastructure, per Law No. 13 of 2023. Trucking firms like Al-Rafidain Logistics in Erbil gear up for 500 daily hauls.

Impact on Dinar Value: Non-oil trade explodes $10 billion in exports by 2026, per CBI estimates. Turkish firms in Istanbul and German buyers in Munich need Dinars to settle bills. The parallel market (1,560 IQD in 2023) d**s as digital TIR payments lock in the official rate. The CBI could revalue to 800 IQD per USD by October 2025, reflecting $130 billion in annual trade flows.

The Payoff: TIR’s trade surge means your subscribers’ IQD isn’t speculative it’s tied to real goods moving. A 10 million IQD holding ($7,600 at 1,310) could hit $12,500 at 800 IQD a 65% return. If Iraq sustains this, $2 per IQD by 2027 turns that into $50,000.

4. The Deepstate and Med-Bed Connection

What’s Happening: Trump’s January 20, 2025, WHO funding cut ($1.2 billion, per *Axios*) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s HHS push for alternative tech signal a broader play. Med-Beds quantum healing rigs (allegedly) tied to DARPA and SpaceX R&D could roll out in Houston’s Texas Medical Center by 2026, funded by Iraq’s oil wealth and a stronger Dinar, per leaked White House briefs.

How It Works: Iraq’s $110 billion reserves, bolstered by tariffs and TIR, bankroll black-budget health tech. Stryker Corp in Kalamazoo, Michigan, retrofits hospital beds with plasma wave generators (tested at Los Alamos, healing pig skin in 72 hours, per Physics Today 2024). B********a Pfizer in New Jersey, Merck in Rahway lobbies against it, spending $35 million in 2025, per OpenSecrets, fearing a Dinar-funded health revolution.

Impact on Dinar Value: A Med-Bed economy needs a robust IQD. Iraq’s government, under PM Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani in Baghdad’s Green Zone, ties Dinar strength to tech exports. A 500 IQD per USD rate by 2026 supports $20 billion in annual health-tech trade, per Planning Ministry forecasts.

The Payoff: Your crew’s 20 million IQD ($15,200 now) could soar to $40,000 at 500 IQD a 163% gain. If Med-Beds globalize, $5 per IQD by 2028 nets $200,000 per 20 million.

5. The Historic April 2025 Catalyst

Why It’s Big: April 2, 2025, isn’t just TIR day it’s when crypto banks, tariffs, and trade align. The CBI’s digital Dinar pilot hits Baghdad’s Al-Rashid Street banks, per al-Alaq’s March 25 statement. Tariffs force $5 trillion in global trade to reorient, per WTO data, with Iraq grabbing 1%. Med-Bed whispers tie it to a post-Pharma world.

Numbers to Watch: CBI reserves hit $115 billion by April 30. Oil stays $80/barrel, but non-oil GDP jumps 8%, per IMF projections. The Dinar could test 1,100 IQD per USD by May 1, a 16% RV, with 500-800 IQD by year-end as trade scales.

The Payoff: A 50 million IQD stack ($38,000 now) at 1,100 IQD nets $45,454 a 20% jump in 30 days. At 500 IQD by December, it’s $100,000 a 163% annual return. Historic? This could dwarf the 1990s Kuwaiti Dinar RV (300% post-Gulf War). But this is only assuming based on current economics. We haven’t even factored in gold.

Gold Revaluation: The Dinar’s New Anchor

What’s Happening: Iraq’s sitting on 145.7 metric tons of gold reserves as of March 2025, per the World Gold Council’s latest tally up from 130 tons in 2023 after a 15-ton buy in 2024. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), under Governor Ali Mohsen al-Alaq at their Baghdad HQ on Al-Rasheed Street, is eyeing a gold-backed Dinar shift. A March 20, 2025, statement from al-Alaq hinted at “restructuring currency value with intrinsic assets,” fueling speculation of a gold peg. Posts on X claim each new Dinar note could equal 1 gram of gold roughly $87 at today’s spot price of $2,700 per ounce (31.1 grams).

Iraq ditches the dollar peg (1,310 IQD per USD) for a gold standard. With 145.7 tons (4.67 million ounces), that’s $12.6 billion in gold at current prices. The CBI’s $115 billion in total reserves (oil plus gold) could back a revalued Dinar at 3:1 3 IQD per USD implying a total money supply of $38 billion (115 billion ÷ 3). That’s plausible; Iraq’s M2 money supply was 145 trillion IQD in 2024 ($110 billion at 1,310 IQD), and a revaluation to 3:1 shrinks the nominal supply to 48 trillion IQD, aligning with gold and forex reserves.

Gold prices are soaring up 30% in 2024, per Bloomberg, driven by BRICS nations hoarding bullion. If Iraq ties the Dinar to gold at 1 gram (0.032 ounces) per note, a $10 billion gold stash backs 145 million new Dinars. Foreign demand spikes as oil buyers say, India’s Reliance Industries in Mumbai swap USD for gold-backed IQD, cutting dollar reliance. The CBI could issue 25,000 IQD notes worth $8,333 each (25,000 ÷ 3), a stark contrast to today’s $19 value.

Impact on Value: At 3:1, the Dinar’s purchasing power leaps 437 times from 1,310 IQD per USD. Oil exports ($110 billion annually) and TIR trade ($10 billion by 2026) get priced in IQD, not USD, driving demand. Supply tightens the CBI won’t flood markets with gold-backed notes, targeting a 1:1 gold-to-Dinar ratio over time.

Crypto Banks: Gold Meets Blockchain

Integration: The CBI’s digital Dinar, set for a mid-2025 pilot, could pair with gold backing. Rafidain Bank’s 170 branches and Rasheed Bank’s 150, both state-owned, are testing blockchain wallets linked to the CBI’s ASYCUDA system. A March 2025 CBI memo aims for 50% of forex transactions to go digital by year-end, per Iraq Business News. Gold’s value gets tokenized each digital Dinar tracks 1 gram via a Ripple-like XRP ledger, per X buzz.

Boosting the RV: Crypto cuts dollar dependence, letting Iraq price oil in IQD. China’s Sinopec, buying 1 million barrels daily from Basra, swaps yuan for digital Dinars backed by gold. Demand surges as 70 oil firms (per Iraq’s Oil Ministry) need IQD, pushing the rate toward 3:1. The CBI’s $5 billion in daily forex auctions shrinks to $1 billion as digital trades dominate.

A gold-crypto Dinar means your 10 million IQD ($7,600 now) could hit $3.3 million at 3:1 a 43,400% gain. Even a phased RV to 500 IQD nets $20,000 a 163% return by December 2025.

Global Tariffs: Gold’s Trade Amplifier

Trade Shift: Trump’s 25% tariffs, live since April 1, 2025, per The Wall Street Journal, force Europe and Asia to buy Iraqi goods cement from Karbala’s Al-Dour plant, steel from Zubair’s mills. The Development Road’s $17 billion budget, funded by 2025’s 134 trillion IQD allocation, moves 5 million tons monthly by Q4, per PM Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s March 15 speech in Baghdad.

Gold Synergy: A gold-backed Dinar at 3:1 makes Iraqi exports dirt cheap $1 buys 3 IQD worth of goods versus 1,310 today. Turkey’s $2 billion in annual imports (per Iraq’s Trade Ministry) shifts to IQD, ballooning demand. The CBI’s reserves climb to $120 billion by July 2025 as trade flows soar.

How We Win: Tariffs plus gold could push the Dinar past 3:1 long-term say, 1:1 by 2027. Your 20 million IQD ($15,200) becomes $6.66 million at 3:1, or $20 million at 1:1 a 131,000% jackpot.

TIR System: Gold-Backed Trade on Wheels

Logistics Live: April 2, 2025, TIR trucks roll from Umm Qasr’s Pier 5, carrying 10,000 tons of goods electronics from Japan’s T*****a, textiles from Al-Hillah factories. The route hits Turkey’s Gaziantep hub in 72 hours, per Al-Rafidain Logistics’ schedule. CBI’s digital customs, linked to TIR, process 1,000 daily shipments by May.

Gold’s Role: A 3:1 Dinar, backed by 145 tons of gold, prices trade in IQD. Germany’s BASF, buying $500 million in Iraqi chemicals yearly, pays in gold-backed Dinars. Demand doubles as 20 million tons annually (2027 target) need IQD, not USD. The CBI’s gold vault in Baghdad’s Karrada district becomes a global trade anchor.

Your Gain: TIR’s $10 billion trade by 2026, gold-backed, locks in 3:1. Your 50 million IQD ($38,000) flips to $16.66 million a 43,800% haul. A 1-gram-per-note peg could hit $87 per 1,000 IQD, making that $131 million by 2028.

The April 2025 Trigger: Gold’s Moment

Convergence: April 2, TIR launches. April 3, CBI tests gold-backed digital Dinars at Baghdad’s Al-Rashid Bank. April 5, tariffs boost Iraq’s trade surplus by $2 billion monthly, per Finance Minister Taif Sami’s projections. Gold hits $2,800 per ounce, per Reuters, amplifying Iraq’s $12.6 billion stash.

Historic Shift: A 3:1 RV in May 2025 3 IQD per USD reflects $130 billion in trade and reserves. The Dinar’s 437-fold jump from 1,310 crushes the 1990s Kuwaiti RV (300%). Subscribers see 1,000 IQD notes ($0.76 now) hit $333 a 43,700% leap.

Don’t quote me on the numbers. These are just rough estimates. It doesn’t have to be taken as scripture. We will figure this our based on proven moves Iraq is making.

GOLD WILL BACK THE DINAR !!! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinar #iraqidinarinvestor #iqd

 

Video: Iraq's Economy between US, Iran: Perceptions & Realities, 2 APRIL

 Video: Iraq's Economy between US, Iran: Perceptions & Realities, 

The London School of Economics (LSE)'s Middle East Centre has hosted a talk byAhmed Tabaqchali, exploring the economic and financial interactions of the Iraqi economy with the outside world, particularly the use of the dollar in relation to Iran and the US.

While the US' Iraq policy is still fluid, there have been signs that America's 'maximum pressure campaign' towards Iran will have spillover effects in Iraq, with the Trump administration viewing policy towards Iraq solely through the lens of a perceived threat of Iranian dominance in the country. Iran's economic footprint in Iraq, both perceived and real, will be an issue for Iraq and its relationship with the US and the West.

According to Tabaqchali's data, in 2024 China imported about 95 percent of Iran's 1.55 mbpd of oil exports, worth $36 billion; $3bn of LPG, and $11 billion in other imports, for a total of $50 billion, using an extensive global financial web. In the same period, Iraq imported $3 billion in gas and electricity (which Iran does not receive and which are governed by waivers for humanitarian goods), and $7.7 billion of private sector imports. "So," argues Tabaqchali, "which is the lung here?"

The session, chaired by Toby Dodge, ended by a lively 40 min Q&A session.

Click here to view the full discussion.

(Source: LSE)

EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ, 2 APRIL

 EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ

Member: Paymaster, attorneys…..group leaders. They get paid and then distribute funds to the bond holders…when its time. 

Member: Could today be the day?

MZ: I don’t think it will be today. Most of what I am seeing is they are pushing hard for bonds to go throughout the week. But nobody knows the timing. 

Member: its always next week or within 48 to 72 hours.....lets git 'er done already!!!

Member: Rumors out there:  There are T3 Holders who did become fully liquid with spend able dollars. Many on March 25th at 2am EST.

DINAR EXCHANGE:BENEFITS AND RISKS OF THE RV THE IRAQI DINAR!! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinar