GEOPOLITICAL FLUCTUATIONS AND OIL MARKETS: HOW CAN IRAQ PROTECT ITS ECONOMY FROM SHOCKS?, 30 MARCH

 GEOPOLITICAL FLUCTUATIONS AND OIL MARKETS: HOW CAN IRAQ PROTECT ITS ECONOMY FROM SHOCKS?

Amid the geopolitical turmoil sweeping the world, energy markets remain vulnerable to extreme volatility, posing significant challenges for oil-producing countries, including Iraq.

In this context, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, the Prime Minister’s advisor for financial affairs, confirmed that Iraq’s public finances are well-prepared to withstand any disruptions to global oil prices.

Peace Economics: Post-War Is Not Necessarily Stable

Despite global anticipation of an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war, Saleh believes that the post-war period will not mean immediate market stability. Rather, affected countries will enter what is known as “peace economies,” which focus on reconstruction and increased investment to offset losses. This will create a new wave of demand for oil, driving prices higher.

Saleh explained that every 1% increase in global economic growth leads to a 0.5% increase in oil demand, which enhances oil price stability and prevents sharp collapses in the energy market.

Between Washington and Moscow… the oil balance game

While the United States is the world’s largest crude oil producer, it faces major challenges if prices fall below $70 per barrel, due to the high cost of shale oil production. Russia, the second-largest producer, is not in its interest to sell oil at low prices, as it seeks to maintain international consensus within OPEC, especially in the post-Ukrainian war period.

The Iraqi economy: financial hedging and relative stability

Despite global challenges, Salih affirmed that Iraq’s financial situation is stable, with the first quarter of 2025 drawing to a close without any financial disruptions. The country’s fiscal policy is also operating with high discipline, ensuring the provision of salaries, pensions, and social welfare, in addition to the continued implementation of service projects according to the government’s program.

He pointed out that the three-year federal budget, approved under Law No. 13 of 2023, set the price of oil at $70 per barrel, ensuring stable public revenues despite global economic fluctuations.

Finally, is Iraq heading towards financial stability?

While the world experiences severe volatility in oil markets, Iraq’s fiscal policy appears to be moving steadily toward hedging and stability, while ensuring the sustainability of public revenues. As the three-year budget continues, the question remains: Will Iraq remain immune to the coming economic storms, or will geopolitical challenges impose a new reality on global oil markets?

TIDBIT FROM FRANK26, 30 MARCH

 Frank26  

Did we not say there would be a phase where they're going to show them the lower notes, ATMs, the new exchange rate, bulletin boards on the street, at the CBI, commercials? 

 Article:  "The Central Bank announces new plans to expand the 'Asraflak' campaign over the next two months." 

 This is it.  The definition of this word is extremely important - financial literacy...IMO this is the start of the campaign of the education of the new exchange rate of the new currency...I think this is big..

We are waiting for VERIFICATION of Tier 3 liquidity Revaluation : let's review the steps #iraq

 

AL-MANDLAWI: IRAQ IS WITNESSING STABILITY AND HAS AN ATTRACTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTMENTS, 30 MARCH

 AL-MANDLAWI: IRAQ IS WITNESSING STABILITY AND HAS AN ATTRACTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTMENTS

First Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohsen al-Mandalawi affirmed on Tuesday that Iraq is interested in developing its relations with its brothers, neighbors, and friends. He also stated that Iraq invites reputable companies to invest in Iraq and benefit from its internal stability and attractive environment.

The media office of the First Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohsen Al-Mandalawi, said in a statement received by Al-Maalouma that “Al-Mandalawi received the Turkish Ambassador to Iraq, Anil Bora Inan, and his accompanying delegation to discuss a number of important issues at the local and regional levels, as well as bilateral relations and ways to strengthen them in various fields.”

He stressed, according to the statement, that “Iraq is interested in developing its relations with its brothers, neighbors, and friends, and provides significant facilities for solid companies to invest in the country. He called on them to take advantage of the internal stability and attractive environment to expand their participation and presence, particularly in the areas of developing the energy and electricity sectors, improving infrastructure services, and strengthening their economic partnership to serve common interests.”

Al-Mandlawi called for urgent, high-level dialogue between the governments and parliaments of the region’s countries to address threats that destabilize regional security and stability, and to work seriously to prevent the expansion of the conflict, deter the Zionist occupation forces from implementing their malicious plans, and to work together to stop the crimes of genocide in Gaza, and to condemn the ongoing violations of the autonomy of Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. 

EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ, 30 MARCH

 EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ

MZ: A high level delegation from the US will be visiting Iraq soon. There are big conversations going on in Iraq. . 

MZ: “Sudanese: US sanctions have contributed to reforming the banking system and the rise in the dollar  returns to construction”  it is more reliable now and international groups are coming to Iraq. Changes being done by Ernst and Young and Iraq fully controls their accounts in the US Federal Reserve  and there is no American guardianship over them ! This is big 

MZ: He stresses that the reform plan for Central Banks system will be launched at Eid Al Fitr at the end of today … and this plan is most important for the history of Iraq. I would think a new rate would also be important to the history of Iraq. A “Golden Age” if you will. 

FIREFLY: HCL Cards and New Exchange Rate!!! ‪@DINARREVALUATION‬ #iraqidinarinvestor #iraq

 

Rafidain Bank directs its branches to work on Saturdays and Sundays to disburse outstanding financial dues., 30 MARCH

  Rafidain Bank directs its branches to work on Saturdays and Sundays to disburse outstanding financial dues.

Today, Friday, March 28, 2025, Rafidain Bank directed its branches to work on Saturdays and Sundays to disburse "pending" financial dues.

A statement from the bank's media office, received by Baghdad Today, stated that "Rafidain Bank has directed its identified branches (Al-Muheet - Arab Quarter - Haifa - Al-Waziriya - Sheikh Omar - Al-Zawiya - Nasr Square - Bab Al-Muadham - Seven Palaces) to work on Saturday and Sunday."

He pointed out that the directive to work is to "disburse financial dues to owners of outlets and collect revenues from petroleum products and gas stations." link

Tishwash:  Iraq prepares for the largest leap in electricity production: historic contracts with GE and Siemens and plans to compensate for gas shortages.

Minister of Electricity Ziyad Fadhil revealed on Friday that Iraq is about to sign two historic contracts with the American company General Electric and the German company Siemens to boost electricity production. The first contract will provide 24,000 megawatts, while the second will add 10,000 megawatts to the national grid.

The minister confirmed in a statement received by Al Furat News that "the issue of importing Iranian gas has not yet been resolved, explaining that the ministry has not received any official notification of the suspension of supplies, while discussions on the matter are still ongoing." 

In the face of any potential gas supply shortage, Fadel noted that "the government has alternative plans, including the use of kerosene, taking advantage of electricity interconnection projects with neighboring countries, solar power plants, combined-cycle units that do not require fuel, and the establishment of a floating gas platform at the port to enhance energy sources." ;

The minister noted that "the ministry is currently implementing the largest campaign to resolve power grid bottlenecks in all governorates, by upgrading and creating new lines and installing transformer stations, with the goal of achieving greater stability in supply hours." 

Regarding warnings of an electricity crisis next summer, Fadel confirmed that "there is an exaggerated hype," emphasizing that the government is well aware of the challenges and has clear plans to address them and ensure stable electricity supply in the coming months.  link