NADER FROM MID EAST: RECOVERY OF THE IRAQI DINAR

 NADER FROM MID EAST: RECOVERY OF THE IRAQI DINAR

Summary

In a recent interview with Economy News, economic adviser and banker Samir al-Nusari shared optimistic forecasts regarding Iraq’s economic landscape by 2025. He stated that with foreign cash reserves projected to exceed $108 billion and 163 tons of gold,

 Iraq’s economy is set to witness a strong recovery that would sustain import coverage for 18 months. Al-Nusari highlighted that the local currency’s export value has reached 100 trillion dinars, 

indicating a gradual rebound of the Iraqi dinar towards the Central Bank’s target exchange rate against the US dollar. He emphasized the steady advancements being made by Iraqi banks, which are aligning with the Central Bank’s strategy focused on reform, development, and digital transformation. Currently,

 20 Iraqi banks maintain banking relationships and accounts with international banks, facilitating external transfers in multiple foreign currencies, especially notable as Iraq moves towards enhanced financial integration post the planned transition off the electronic platform by the end of 2024.

• 🚀 Economic Optimism: Samir al-Nusari predicts a robust Iraqi economy by 2025, buoyed by significant foreign reserves and gold.
• 💵 Local Currency Surge: The value of exported local currency has reached 100 trillion dinars, signaling economic rejuvenation.
• 📈 Target Balance Exchange Rate: The Iraqi dinar is showing signs of recovery, aiming to align with the Central Bank’s targeted balance rate against the US dollar.
• 🏦 Banking Advancements: Iraqi banks are enhancing their capabilities, in line with the Central Bank’s strategic reforms and digital initiatives.
• 🌍 International Banking Relations: There are currently 20 Iraqi banks engaged in banking relations with international entities, crucial for external financial dealings.
• 📅 End of Electronic Platform Transition: The anticipated phase-out of the electronic platform by the end of 2024 marks a significant milestone for the Iraqi banking sector.
• 🔄 Multi-Currency Transactions: Iraqi banks are diversifying their operations to handle transactions in multiple foreign currencies.

Key Insights

• 💪 Economic Forecasting as a Strategic Tool: Al-Nusari’s positive economic forecasts underscore the critical need for accurate economic forecasting in national planning. By identifying key indicators - such as foreign cash reserves and gold holdings - national and local stakeholders can steer strategic policies to facilitate growth and economic stability. As Iraq aims towards recovery, understanding these economic metrics will be key for attracting foreign investment and fostering business confidence.

• 📊 Impact of Local Currency Health: The reported increase in the value of exported local currency reflects a restoration in economic activity and consumer confidence. A robust currency not only stabilizes the economy but also enhances purchasing power for imports and investment in sectors such as infrastructure and health. Consequently, this rejuvenation of the dinar not only supports local businesses but also works towards reducing inflationary pressures.

• 🔄 Evolution of the Banking Sector: The mention of the Central Bank’s strategy in promoting reform and digital transformation is significant. It emphasizes the shift towards modern banking practices which can provide Iraq with the tools to engage more transparently and fluidly in global markets. Transitioning banking services to digital channels can enhance efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and improve customer accessibility.

• 🌐  Diversification of Banking Relationships: The engagement of 20 Iraqi banks with international banking entities indicates a strategic effort to reduce reliance on domestic financial mechanisms. This diversification enhances the credibility and reliability of Iraqi banks on an international scale, paving the way for better financing options and conditions which is critical for export-driven economies.

• 💡 Financial Inclusion and Accessibility: Al-Nusari’s comments indirectly hint at the importance of financial inclusion, particularly as banks transition away from electronic platforms. As Iraq’s banking sector innovates and develops, ensuring that smaller enterprises and the general population can access banking services will be integral to overall economic growth. Enhanced accessibility can lead to increased savings rates and investment opportunities.

• 🚀 Positioning for Future Growth: With the target reset in motion for the Iraqi dinar, Iraq is poised for economic advancement through strategic positioning in financial markets. The resilience shown by the banking sector amid fluctuating economic conditions may serve as a template for businesses to follow, emphasizing adaptability and response to global economic shifts.

• 📅 Strategic Planning for Transition: The upcoming transition from the electronic banking platform reinforces the necessity for robust strategic planning. This change not only sets the stage for improved banking practices but also prepares the economy for further integration into the global financial system. Stakeholders must ensure that the transition is seamless and that all associated challenges are adequately addressed to maximize benefits.

By fostering positive economic indicators, enhancing banking capabilities, and aligning with international standards, Iraq is on a path towards sustainable growth and financial stability, which is crucial for the empowerment of its economy and the wellbeing of its citizens. Through ongoing assessments and adjustments in response to market conditions, the Iraqi economic landscape has the potential to not only recover but also thrive in the foreseeable future.

Mnt Goat : Will cash paper dinar coincide with the digital dinar @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinar

 

WHAT DOES THE UNITED STATES MEAN BY REAL SECURITY REFORM IN IRAQ?, 27 MARCH

 WHAT DOES THE UNITED STATES MEAN BY REAL SECURITY REFORM IN IRAQ?

The complex security situation in Iraq is a natural consequence of any country facing occupation, as it becomes a hub and haven for various armed and extremist organizations with deviant ideologies, which in turn leads to a state of security instability. Although the United States views the presence of its forces in Iraq as part of its national security strategy, any security issue related to Iraq inevitably overlaps with this presence.

Iraq is witnessing a conflict between international and regional security visions. The United States is focused on achieving its own goals by addressing the Iraqi security situation, but it is not prioritizing the security of the Iraqi citizen himself, which exacerbates the country’s societal security problems.

Iran, on the other hand, views Iraqi security from a completely different perspective, seeking to end the American presence there and ensure its control in a way that serves its national security and bolsters its regional influence in Iraq and other countries such as Yemen and Lebanon. Iraq’s security services are in a fragile balance between the various forces that support them.

For example, the United States has provided significant support to the Counter-Terrorism Service, particularly in the areas of intelligence, training, and consulting, making it one of the most effective security institutions in the country.
In contrast, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have emerged as a major military and security entity, possessing extensive military and intelligence capabilities and demonstrating their effectiveness in combating armed groups.

The greatest challenge facing Iraqi security now is the US-Iranian conflict, whose features have been imprinted on Iraq’s security landscape.
The consequences of this conflict cannot be ignored or avoided in any form, especially now that every country sees itself as having priority in influencing the situation inside Iraq.

Regarding the regional landscape, the complexities of the situation in Syria and the efforts of some parties to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s regime have contributed to deepening threats and increasing security concerns in the region in general, and in Iraq in particular. Regional political and security transformations carry international dimensions, with interests intertwined and sometimes conflicting, depending on the demands of “political interests.”

Today, Iraq is experiencing a security situation that oscillates between conflicting international and regional perspectives, with each country approaching Iraqi security according to its own vision. The United States has a predetermined vision of what Iraqi security should look like to serve its interests, while Iran seeks to secure its strategic influence and strengthen its ties with pro-Iranian factions within Iraq. But we, as Iraqis, aspire to achieve stable security that serves the interests of the people, independent of foreign agendas.

Our vision for security must be clear: Iraq’s security comes first and foremost.
We must cooperate with any party that serves this interest, provided this does not infringe upon our national sovereignty or prioritize the interests of one state over another.

Ultimately, we cannot accept America’s vision for Iraqi security if it is based on deep interference in the structure of our security services and directing them to serve its own interests. This is illogical and unacceptable.

Nevertheless, we urgently need the support of our international friends and partners, provided that this support is balanced and respects Iraq’s sovereignty, and does not place the interests of one party at the expense of another.

Accordingly, the security and strategic relations between Iraq and the United States will remain fraught with complexities and challenges, due to the sensitive reality in Iraq and the conflicting interests of major and regional powers.

DISTRIBUTING OIL REVENUES TO IRAQIS: “ECONOMIC COLLAPSE INEVITABLE WITHIN TWO YEARS”, 27 MARCH

 DISTRIBUTING OIL REVENUES TO IRAQIS: “ECONOMIC COLLAPSE INEVITABLE WITHIN TWO YEARS”

Controversy is escalating in Iraq over lawsuits filed by citizens demanding their share of oil revenues. An expert has warned of the disastrous economic consequences of such demands, asserting that direct distribution of oil revenues would lead to the collapse of the Iraqi economy within just one year.

Oil revenues for 2024 are estimated at $90 billion, while non-oil revenues are estimated at only $13 billion, barely enough to cover the government’s electricity, gas, and ration card purchases, expert Nabil al-Marsoumi told Shafaq News Agency.

He emphasized that demands to distribute oil revenues to citizens ignore economic realities. Allocating all oil revenues would deplete the central bank’s cash reserves, forcing the government to resort to deficit financing, or “printing money,” to pay employee and pensioner salaries and social security, which total $70 billion annually, in addition to operating and investment expenses, which total no less than $30 billion annually.

Al-Marsoumi add ed that this approach would lead to rampant inflation and a collapse in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar after its flotation, thus plunging the country into a stifling economic crisis within just one year.

However, if half of the oil revenues were distributed, the collapse would occur within two years, according to Al-Marsoumi, who concluded with a sarcastic question: “Isn’t this enough fooling around?”

This statement comes amid l awsuits filed by dozens of Iraqis before the courts of appeal, citing Article 111 of the constitution, which states that “oil and gas are the property of all the Iraqi people in all regions and governorates.”

Legal experts believe these lawsuits involve complex details, noting that national wealth is managed for the benefit of citizens through public services rather than direct cash distribution, a fact confirmed by previous economic experiences in other countries.

On the other hand, some citizens believe that these demands reflect a general dissatisfaction with the performance of successive Iraqi governments in managing wealth, and some have threatened to join these lawsuits if they achieve any positive results.

Mr. Pool: Tier4b activation has begun!! @DINARREVALUATION #iraq #iraqidinar #iraqidinarinvestor

 

MP: The 2025 Budget Amounts To 216 Trillion Dinars, And Sending Its Schedules To Parliament Has Been Postponed, 27 MARCH

 MP: The 2025 Budget Amounts To 216 Trillion Dinars, And Sending Its Schedules To Parliament Has Been Postponed

Deputy Chairwoman of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Ikhlas al-Dulaimi, ruled out on Tuesday the government's submission of the 2025 budget tables within the next two months, confirming that their total value amounts to 216 trillion dinars.

Al-Dulaimi explained that the Ministry of Finance has not yet sent the 2025 budget tables to the Council of Ministers, even though the Financial Management Law stipulated that they be submitted in October 2024 for approval before the start of the new year.

She added that the actual spending in the budget is estimated at 160 trillion dinars, noting that the Ministry of Finance has not yet completed preparing the tables, which could lead to postponing the budget approval until after the election.

The Iraqi Parliament voted last February on the first amendment to the Federal General Budget Law for the fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025.   https://www.radionawa.com/all-detail.aspx?jimare=41469