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FRANK26: "WHAT DID I TELL YOU FAMILY... DO YOU RECALL?".......F26
Iran may lose Iraq." Trump and the possibility of exploiting "fear" in nuclear negotiations.
3/12/2025
The American magazine "Foreign Affairs" reported that the Trump administration has an opportunity to expel Iran from Iraq, not through military action, but rather through "firm diplomacy, the threat of sanctions, and intelligence operations," giving the Americans greater leverage at the negotiating table with the Iranians .
After the American report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, pointed to the success of Iran's strategy since 1979, establishing a network of "agents and friends" across the Middle East, which has given Tehran influence in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, the report said that the events of the past year have upended this regional order, with Israel's destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the control of Sunni forces supported by Türkiye over Syria.
He added that Iran is "terrified of another domino falling," with Iraq considered the most likely place for this to happen, as Tehran's allies in Baghdad are already on edge.
Sudanese concessions
According to the report, Iraqi politicians appear more eager than usual to appease the United States, noting that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's team made three concessions to American officials in late January: the cancellation of an arrest warrant for US President Donald Trump for ordering the killing of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy head of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, and General Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, in an airstrike on January 3, 2020, near Baghdad International Airport during his first presidential term.
The second concession, he noted, was agreeing to work toward the release of Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, as well as approving a significant budget amendment long sought by the Kurds, whom the report described as "the segment of Iraqi society most closely connected to Trump."
While the report viewed these concessions as an indication that Iran's allies in Iraq feel "weak," it noted that Washington must exploit this moment to permanently limit Iranian influence in Iraq. It added that this should not be achieved through extensive military action, but rather through assertive diplomacy, the threat of sanctions, and intelligence operations.
The report considered that such measures would deprive Iran of a vital source of funding, give the United States leverage in any negotiations with Iranian leaders, and, most importantly, lead to better governance for Iraqis who have suffered under the yoke of Iran.
"The cash cow"
The report spoke of a "cash cow" and how Iran and its proxies feed off the Iraqi economy, which is why Tehran is holding on tightly to Baghdad, just as the East India Company did, plundering India's wealth to finance the British Empire for centuries.
The report addressed some of the actions of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in this context in Iraq, such as transporting Iranian oil into Iraqi waters to be falsely labeled as Iraqi and exported to global markets. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed militias, such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah, "steal" Iraqi oil directly from wells or by establishing "front companies" that unfairly receive subsidized fuel from the government.
The report also touched on the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which are nominally under the control of the Iraqi government and receive approximately $3 billion in government funding. It also touched on the state-owned Al-Muhandis Company, which cooperates with Chinese and Revolutionary Guard-run companies to receive oil and construction contracts from the Iraqi government. The report noted that the Iranian government is under immense financial pressure, with the national currency collapsing, and commodity prices rising daily, with inflation averaging 32%.
The loss of Lebanon and Syria
The report continued, stating that maintaining control over Iraq is vital for the Iranian regime after losing two Arab states, as this makes it appear vulnerable and boosts the morale of its opponents. It added that losing influence in another Arab state, namely Iraq, which is geographically and socially closer to Iran, would be devastating and could have negative repercussions domestically, as the regime in Tehran fears that if it loses control over its neighbor, it will likely lose control over its own people.
However, the report stated that "expelling Iran from Iraq is not an easy task," given its significant influence within the Iraqi government, far exceeding that of the United States. However, Washington must take steps to ensure that Iraqi leaders do not submit to Iranian demands by setting clear red lines that Iraqi leaders understand.
The report stated that Washington should hold exclusive meetings with Iraqis who serve Iraq's national interests and take a tougher stance against Iraqi elites who harm their country's interests through their alliance with Iran. It should impose sanctions on their assets, marginalize them diplomatically, and threaten the use of force against Iranian-backed "terrorists" and their financiers in Iraq.
In this context, the report noted two "steps in the right direction" taken by the Trump administration: the memorandum calling on the Treasury Department to "impose immediate sanctions or take appropriate enforcement action" against anyone violating sanctions on Iran, and Washington's refusal on March 7 to renew the sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran.
Although the report acknowledges that such steps may not dissuade all Iraqi leaders from coordinating with Iran, given that there is a small segment of elites who despise the United States, it states that the vast majority of Iraqis are neither loyal to Tehran nor to Washington, but are simply responding to incentives, which Iran has been adept at providing so far.
Strict diplomatic sanctions
Therefore, the report argues that sanctions and tough diplomacy could further help Washington strengthen its position with Iraq and may also help it gain an advantage over Iran during the nuclear talks.
He added that Iran fears losing its influence in Baghdad, and that the Trump administration could use this fear as leverage in negotiations.
The report continued, saying that Trump may engage with Tehran while tightening the noose on its networks inside Iraq, which would encourage Iran to come to the negotiating table rather than evade or prolong the negotiations.
The report concluded by stating that "by removing Iran from Iraq, Washington will have an opportunity to limit Tehran's global influence and enhance the chances of reaching an agreement that halts its nuclear program at the same time. The Trump administration must seize this opportunity."
(AS WE HAVE BEEN TEACHING DR. SHABIBI WANTED SECURITY & STABILITY FOR THE NEW EXCHANGE RATE TO BE RELEASED... AND YOU FAMILY, AND TRUMP KNOW WHO TO REMOVE FOR THIS SECURITY & STABILITY. -F26)
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