Central Bank Prudential Policies To Counter The Impact Of Changes In The Global Economy
Samir Al-Nusairi
For several years, the global system has been witnessing complex economic, financial and security crises, the accumulated causes of which have centered on rising energy and food prices due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, US and European sanctions on Russia, and the Zionist entity's aggression against Palestine, Lebanon and Syria.
The Zionist entity continues to employ a strategy of using war and its military machine, with the support of America and Europe, to draw the political, security and economic map of the new Middle East.
In addition to the impact of the US-China struggle for global economic control, the divisions in the visions and strategies of the G20, the G7, the BRICS group, and other international groups working to form new economic poles, and finally Trump's new policies of increasing taxes and tariffs on some competing industrial countries, which has led to confusion in the global economic and trade map.
The evidence is the current crises that have harmed the economies of major countries before smaller ones, and what we are currently witnessing of high stagflation in most countries of the world, most notably in the United States, the European Union countries, and countries of the geographical region, and the decline in the purchasing power of these countries' local currencies.
Therefore, we believe that our economy will suffer in the near term from the negative effects of the global economic system, from the lack of control over the supplies of food and basic commodities, and oil prices may fall below what was planned in the general budget for 2025, in light of the changing circumstances.
These effects will lead to negative repercussions on our economy and the methodology of financial and banking reform.
Given that economic stability is achieved through stability in the financial and monetary systems, the Central Bank's precautionary measures in 2023 and 2024, and its objectives outlined in its third strategy until 2026, in light of expected developments in future crises, require a fundamental reliance on building foreign reserves at a level that covers the local currency in circulation, imports, external debt repayments, and other international obligations.
It also seeks to diversify reserves to include a basket of currencies, gold, bonds, and securities. It also adopts policies and mechanisms to regulate foreign trade financing and comply with international standards.
This is exactly what the Central Bank did during this period, as its foreign exchange reserves reached more than $107 billion and 162.7 tons of gold. The World Gold Council announced that Iraq ranks fourth in the Arab world and twenty-eighth globally.
This confirms that the Central Bank is proceeding steadily to achieve the objectives of monetary policy in reducing inflation and controlling the general price level.
This is what it recently announced, that the annual inflation rate reached 2.8% and the basic rate 2.5%, as well as controlling the money supply and maintaining the exchange rate of the dinar within the balanced price in the trading market, despite the fluctuations from time to time in the exchange rate of the dollar in cash on the black market.
Continuous monitoring and analysis of the interest rate set by the Central Bank.
This requires fiscal policy, key economic sectors, and the ministries responsible for them to work together and in clear and specific coordination with the Central Bank's management to achieve economic stability, hedge against the global economic crisis, and mitigate its expected future repercussions over the next three years.
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