FRANK26: "EVERYTHING WAITS FOR THE NEW EXCHANGE RATE, END OF STORY.".....F26
Oil Minister announces imminent activation of export file via Turkish port of Ceyhan
3/6/2025
Baghdad
Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani Al-Sawad announced today, Thursday, the imminent activation of the oil export file to the Turkish port of Ceyhan and the possibility of increasing exports of Basra oil.
A statement by the Ministry of Oil received by "Al-Eqtisad News" stated that "the Minister of Oil chaired a meeting to discuss the work of the joint Iraqi-Turkish committee in the presence of committee members from the Iraqi ministries."
He stressed the "importance of the files related to the committee's work, especially the water and oil files."
He pointed out the "necessity of activating the water file in a way that serves Iraq's interests by achieving a fair share of water releases, pointing to the imminent activation of the oil export file via the oil pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan and the possibility of increasing exports via this pipeline of Basra oil."
The statement indicated that "the meeting discussed the topics included in the agenda related to the subcommittees in the fields of water, energy and oil, education, border crossings and communications, trade exchange, and the sports and youth file."
He stressed that "the meeting concluded with the importance of completing the technical requirements of the committees, and activating the joint committees with the Turkish side in a manner that serves the interests of the country."
Article: "The evaluation of the central bank's policy journey for 22 years"
They wanted to go do back from 2003 because inflation was so high, it exceeded 35%, now it's 3% or 5%...Huge difference now.
The stability Iraq has proven with their gold...foreign reserves ...non-oil income..
.taxes and tariffs...electronic system...all of that is going to support the value of their new currency.
Everything was based off just oil. It's not going to be that way anymore.
The real effective exchange rate is going to be based off real analysis in real time, international standards rules just like Iraq has done in the past, long long time ago.
Prime Minister's Advisor Explains Details Of "Bridge Borrowing"
Economy Yesterday, 13:19 Baghdad- WAA- Amna Al-Salami The Prime Minister's Advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, explained today, Thursday, the details of "bridge borrowing", while indicating that
more than 50% of the domestic debt is concentrated in the investment portfolio of the Central Bank. Saleh told the Iraqi News Agency (INA):
"Historically, government borrowing through treasury transfers is a type of short-term borrowing from the banking market that British public finance has adopted since the reign of Queen Victoria."
He added that "this type of borrowing was done for limited periods not exceeding weeks or financial quarters, and is known as (bridge borrowing), as
it aims to bridge the temporary deficit gap resulting from the slowdown in revenues compared to actual expenditures." He pointed out that
"due to the monthly financial obligations, public finance may resort to issuing treasury transfers as a financing tool to bridge the temporary deficit in the budget until cash flow stabilizes in the next period of the fiscal year." He added that
"in light of the fluctuations in the oil revenue cycle on the general budget over the past ten years, the government was forced to borrow multiple and accumulated,
which led to an increase in expenditures in three stages: the
first during the war on ISIS terrorism, the second due to the economic closure caused by the pandemic, and finally the increase in expenditures in the areas of reconstruction and implementation of suspended projects." He added that
"these circumstances resulted in the accumulation of domestic public debt, part of which was borne by government banks, as more than half of it was deducted from the Central Bank of Iraq through open market operations." He stressed that
"this necessitated a complementary monetary issuance that led to a significant increase in the monetary mass,
especially since the domestic public debt, amounting to 82 trillion dinars, is still mostly within the government financial and banking system, more than 50% of this debt is concentrated in the investment portfolio of the Central Bank." He added,
"On the positive side, this debt is covered by foreign currency by more than 100%
, which reflects a high level of monetary stability, as the annual inflation growth rate did not exceed 3%."
He added that "despite these challenges, both the monetary and fiscal authorities seek continuous consultation in order to gradually extinguish the domestic debt," stressing that
"the government relies on enhancing financial sustainability by reducing the public debt balance annually and
reducing the annual budget deficit to a percentage not exceeding 3% of the gross domestic product." He concluded that
"this approach is part of a fiscal policy aimed at providing financing and protecting economic activity, which contributes to achieving stability and
sustainable economic growth through coordination between fiscal and monetary policies."
😊I want to bring up another VERY IMPORTANT topic too. The topic is fighting inflation. If you look at the Dr Shabibi plan to get to the reinstatement you can clearly see the he planned to put the brakes on after each step, then monitor closely for inflation.
In our first article today, we see that in 2003 after the 10-year embargo and sanctions on Iraq, the inflation rate was rampant in 2003, which exceeded 35% and today it is only 2.8%. Only 2.8%? Yes, only 2.8% and this is fantastic and amazing news since this is way in line with acceptable inflation rates for country, according to the IMF.
Check out this article titled “INFLATION’S FREEFALL: IRAQ HITS 2.8%, ECONOMIC HOPES SOAR”. Announced by the CBI on Wednesday that Iraq’s annual inflation rate has dropped to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 4% a year earlier. Folks the process is working……. 😊 😊 😊
Now let me joggle your memory a bit. What has the CBI told us many times is their main responsibility? Did they not tell us it was to manage the currency and monitor the inflation rate? Why is this so important then to get to 2.8% inflation only? Well, well today we confirm once again why this has been so important and still is. Saleh in this article stressed that these achievements come within the framework of “a comprehensive strategy aimed at achieving sustainable financial stability and enhancing the confidence of citizens and investors in the future of the Iraqi economy”, calling on all segments of society to engage more in the use of electronic payment tools in the interest of the national economy. Again Saleh emphasizes the use of electronic payment tools and no cash.
So in our conclusion today, what we all we should do now, as investors, is monitor the monitors, lol..lol..lol.. and watch this all play out. Just give it some time. They are almost there. Folks they are telling us they nearly broke the parallel market and is this not what my contact told us had to happen and if they could get the rate of the dollar of this parallel market down or very close to the “official” CBI rate, we would see the triggering of the “official” rate going even lower and for us this means more value to the Iraqi dinar. Yes, the in-country revaluation close to a buck we have been waiting for. This then would allow the kickoff to the Project to Delete the Zeros. No, my CBI contact, as part of the committee to head off this project, is not yet back on this effort, but she has told me all is going as planned and finally “real” success can be seen. She emphasized “real” and sounded very glad that finally the efforts of the CBI are showing substantial success.
But remember unlike how many of us investors think we go off half-cocked wanting everything now and have it our way. This is not how it works. We are not in control. Yes, we had a huge disappointment from last December through January hoping they could break the parallel market quickly by just using the correspondent banks and doing away with the currency auctions. However, this strategy alone did not work and fix it entirely so they moved on to other strategies, which are now working.
What else is in the news?
Next, I want to take another peek at the article by Samir Al-Nusairi titled “EVALUATION OF THE CENTRAL BANK’S JOURNEY IN 22 YEARS”. I want to pay attention especially to the part when it talks about going forward in future strategies. They talk about what they plan to do for the next 2 years. Will we have to wait for two years for the RV? I don’t think so but we don’t control it rather only follow the REAL news and where it takes us. I certainly also hope the US can finally breaks Iran leadership and the overthrow this insane terrorist dictator and supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. So, in this article it talks about another phase of the strategy is about to be implemented. Why would they begin yet another phase if not finished with the previous one? What is this new strategy?
The third strategy identified the main goals with 7 goals, 24 sub-goals and 75 initiatives to achieve the main and sub-goals and charted the path for banking and financial reform. I am not going to list them as you can go read the article for yourself. But I do like the 6th and 7th goals which I quote “Enhancing the position of the Central Bank locally and internationally” and “Enhancing compliance of the banking sector and the non-banking sector in line with international standards”. I especially liked the part as the article goes on to say “strengthening the bank’s internal and external relations, and representing it locally and internationally.”
So this is telling us there is still work to be done in this area. They then go on to tell us that “What has been presented accurately and transparently for the 22 years of the financial and banking reform process confirms that the next two years will inevitably result in the transition to a comprehensive and radical reform of the Iraqi banking sector and transforming it into a solid sector.”
Folks, its all in the words of these articles today as they are packed full of good information. These next 2 years are going to be amazing. I firmly believe that within these next years we will see the reinstatement. Whether they do decide to go with a digital currency in the timeframe I do not know. This would seemingly bypass the Project to Delete the Zeros as there would be no necessity to do it. But we also know that they have talked and talked about the Project to Delete the Zeros for so long and my contact still says they plan to do it. So go figure.
Again, note I did not say we had to wait the full two years to fully implement this new strategy. There could be a benchmark with the strategy where they say they are ready and the US finally gives approval. I only report on progress and give you an HONEST & TRUTHFUL updates twice a week. You do want to know the TRUTH don’t you? So, what is the motto of this blog? Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, No Opinions ,,,,,
In Numbers ... The Banking Sector During 2024 Is Witnessing A Decrease In Total Deposits
Economics 2025-03-06 |Source: Alsumaria News 616 Viewed Alsumaria News -banking sector witnessed During the year 2024, the Iraqi a noticeable decrease in total deposits, as
it decreased by 9%, to decrease from 133.5 trillion Iraqi Iraq Future Foundation dinars at the end of 2023 to 123.5 trillion Iraqi dinars, registering a loss of 10 trillion dinars, according to a report published by the independent concerned with economic affairs.
The head of the Foundation, Manar Al-Ubaidi, said in a post that Alsumaria News followed,
this decline is mainly due to a decrease in government sector deposits by 14%, as it decreased from 47.3 trillion dinars to 42.8 trillion dinars.
The deposits of public institutions decreased by 7.4%, declining from 29.6 trillion dinars to 27.4 trillion dinars. As for the
deposits of the private sector, it witnessed a decrease of 6.52%, as it decreased from 56.5 trillion dinars to 53.2 trillion dinars. At the level of the types of deposits,
the
current deposits recorded the largest decline by 11.6%, to decrease from 107.5 trillion dinars at the end of 2023 to 97.4 trillion dinars. As for
fixed deposits, it declined slightly, from 9.67 trillion dinars to 9.62 trillion dinars, in return, the
savings deposits witnessed a marginal increase of 0.7%, up from 16.3 trillion dinars to 16.43 trillion dinars, according to Al-Ubaidi.
Al-Ubaidi added that this decline raises important questions about the impact of the trend towards electronic payment and the use of modern payment techniques on the banking sector. As
it was expected that the spread of these technologies will contribute to increasing the volume of deposits, especially the ongoing ones, by stimulating banking transactions and reducing dependence on criticism. However, the
current data reflects a different reality, which requires reviewing electronic payment mechanisms and assessing the extent of their effectiveness in achieving the desired financial and banking goals. He added that
electronic payment is a means, not an end, as
it is supposed to contribute to enhancing financial inclusion and increasing dependence on banks by raising deposit rates.
As bank deposits continue to decline in this large percentage, it becomes necessary to review the electronic payment policies and its application mechanisms. The
expansion of this system must be accompanied by motivational and encouraging measures that enhance the confidence of individuals and companies in banking transactions,
instead of being a technical transformation that does not achieve the required impact on the financial sector.