Prime Minister's Advisor Explains Details of "Bridge Borrowing", 7 MARCH

  Prime Minister's Advisor Explains Details of "Bridge Borrowing"

 Prime Minister's Advisor Explains Details of "Bridge Borrowing"

 The Prime Minister's Advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, explained today, Thursday, the details of "bridge borrowing", while indicating that more than 50% of the domestic debt is concentrated in the investment portfolio of the Central Bank.

Saleh told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "Historically, government borrowing through treasury transfers is a type of short-term borrowing from the banking market that British public finance has adopted since the reign of Queen Victoria."

He added that "this type of borrowing was done for limited periods not exceeding weeks or financial quarters, and is known as (bridge borrowing), as it aims to bridge the temporary deficit gap resulting from the slowdown in revenues compared to actual expenditures."

He pointed out that "due to monthly financial obligations, public finance may resort to issuing treasury transfers as a financing tool to bridge the temporary deficit in the budget until cash flow stabilizes in the next period of the fiscal year."

 He added that "in light of the fluctuations in the oil revenue cycle on the general budget over the past ten years, the government was forced to borrow multiple and accumulated, which led to an increase in expenditures in three stages: the first during the war on ISIS terrorism, the second due to the economic closure caused by the pandemic, and finally the increase in expenditures in the areas of reconstruction and implementation of suspended projects."

He added that "these circumstances resulted in the accumulation of domestic public debt, part of which was borne by government banks, as more than half of it was deducted from the Central Bank of Iraq through open market operations."

He stressed that "this necessitated a complementary monetary issuance that led to a significant increase in the monetary mass, especially since the domestic public debt, amounting to 82 trillion dinars, is still mostly within the government financial and banking system, more than 50% of this debt is concentrated in the investment portfolio of the Central Bank."

He added, "On the positive side, this debt is covered by foreign currency by more than 100%, which reflects a high level of monetary stability, as the annual inflation growth rate did not exceed 3%."

He added that "despite these challenges, both the monetary and fiscal authorities seek continuous consultation in order to gradually extinguish the domestic debt," stressing that "the government relies on enhancing financial sustainability by reducing the public debt balance annually and reducing the annual budget deficit to a percentage not exceeding 3% of the gross domestic product." 

He concluded that "this approach is part of a fiscal policy aimed at providing financing and protecting economic activity, which contributes to achieving stability and sustainable economic growth through coordination between fiscal and monetary policies."  link

TIDBIT FROM SANDY INGRAM, 7 MARCH

 Sandy Ingram  

Changes are happening in Iraq.  We can only hope this means an increase, even a small increase, in the value of the currency is on the agenda further down the road. 

 We have reason to believe the value of the currency will automatically push up once the Development Road Project is in place...

PIMPY: This means the Iraqi dinar has grown in value!! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinarinvestor

 

Inflation's freefall: Iraq hits 2.8%, economic hopes soar, 7 MARCH

  Inflation's freefall: Iraq hits 2.8%, economic hopes soar

Iraq’s annual inflation rate has dropped to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 4% a year earlier, the central bank (CBI) announced on Wednesday.

In an official statement, CBI confirmed that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, had also declined to 2.5% from 4.5% in the same period of 2023.

“Both headline and core inflation remain within acceptable levels, reflecting price stability and the effectiveness of Iraq’s monetary policy,” the statement read.

The latest figures point to a slower rise in consumer prices, strengthening purchasing power and reinforcing economic stability.

Notably, Iraq has experienced inflation swings in recent years. The annual rate stood at 5% in 2022 before climbing to 6.6% in 2023, driven by currency fluctuations and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Projections for the coming years remain mixed. An International Monetary Fund report in October 2024 forecast a slight increase to 3.5% in 2025, before easing to 3% by 2029.  link

SANDY INGRAM CC HIGHLIGHTS NOTES: BREAKING: The Demand for the IQD is Increasing Here's Why, 7 MARCH

 SANDY INGRAM CC HIGHLIGHTS NOTES: 

BREAKING: The Demand for the IQD is Increasing Here's Why

Highlights

Summary

The video from the Edu Matrix Channel outlines a comprehensive financial game plan for investing in the Iraqi dinar (IQD) in light of Iraq’s ambitious Development Road Project. This $17 billion initiative aims to transform Iraq into a major trade hub by establishing a network of highways and railways connecting the Gulf to Europe. 

This project is projected to significantly enhance Iraq’s economic landscape by reducing transportation costs, creating jobs, and increasing the demand for the IQD. 

The video emphasizes the potential financial benefits for investors, particularly as the project is likely to attract various countries to utilize Iraqi infrastructure for their trade needs. The speaker also discusses how the demand for IQD could substantially increase, leading to a stronger currency and improved economic stability for Iraq.

• 🚧 Transformative Infrastructure: The Development Road Project aims to connect Iraq to Europe via a modern network, enhancing trade efficiency.
• 💰 Economic Boost: Expected annual revenue of $86 billion from various countries utilizing the new route for shipping.
• 📦 Shipping Cost Reduction: The project is anticipated to lower shipping costs significantly compared to traditional routes, such as the Suez Canal.
• 🌍 Regional Trade Hub: Iraq is positioned to become a central transit point for goods between Asia and Europe, benefiting neighboring countries.
• 📈 IQD Demand Surge: Transactions in IQD for shipping services are expected to drive demand for the currency, increasing its value.
• 💼 Job Creation: The initiative is expected to create numerous job opportunities within Iraq, improving local economic conditions.
• 🔄 Diversification of Trade Routes: The development of this project allows countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan to diversify their export routes.

Key Insights

• 🌟 Strategic Economic Initiative: The Development Road Project is a crucial step for Iraq, positioning it as a trade bridge between Asia and Europe. By enhancing infrastructure with a $17 billion investment, Iraq is not only improving its internal logistics but also making itself a pivotal player in international trade. The project promises to create a more efficient transport system, potentially reducing costs and transit times significantly, which is vital for boosting regional trade.

• 📊 Significant Revenue Potential: The video estimates that combined shipping costs from countries such as China and India could generate around $86 billion annually for Iraq. This figure underscores the financial potential of the project, as it attracts international trade and commerce, thereby enhancing the country’s economic landscape. Iraq’s strategic location and improved infrastructure could facilitate smoother trade routes, making it an attractive option for businesses in neighboring regions.

• 🔄 Currency Appreciation Mechanism: A notable insight from the video is the mechanism through which the IQD could appreciate in value. As international companies begin to pay for shipping and logistics services in IQD, the demand for the currency will rise. This increased demand, coupled with a decrease in available dinars due to scarcity, could lead to a higher value of the IQD. This dynamic creates a compelling argument for potential investors in the currency.

• 🏗️ Job Creation and Economic Stability: The Development Road Project is projected to create numerous jobs, which can lead to economic growth and improved living standards in Iraq. By stimulating the local economy, the project could foster stability and reduce reliance on foreign currencies, particularly the US dollar. A stronger economy typically leads to a stronger currency, which is beneficial for IQD investors.

• 📦 Cost Efficiency Over Traditional Routes: The video’s discussion on shipping costs illustrates the substantial benefits of using Iraq’s new route over traditional methods. For instance, transporting goods via Iraq could save significant time and money compared to the Suez Canal. This cost efficiency can make Iraq a preferred choice for shipping goods, further increasing the demand for IQD as more companies will need the currency for transactions.

• 🌍 Regional Collaboration: The project opens avenues for collaboration among neighboring countries, allowing them to leverage Iraq’s enhanced logistics for their trade needs. Countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan are expected to benefit from improved export routes, which could enhance their economic conditions and increase trade volumes. This collaborative regional approach could amplify Iraq’s role as a trade hub.

• 📈 Long-term Investment for Stability: The potential long-term benefits of investing in the IQD are significant. Given the anticipated demand for the currency as a result of its growing role in international trade, investors could see substantial returns. The fundamentals of the Development Road Project indicate a promising future for the IQD, as the economic landscape of Iraq transforms through enhanced infrastructure and increased trade activity.

In conclusion, the Edu Matrix Channel presents a compelling case for investing in the IQD, emphasizing the transformative impact of the Development Road Project on Iraq’s economy and the potential for currency appreciation.

 The insights provided highlight both the immediate and long-term benefits of engaging with Iraq’s evolving economic landscape, making it an intriguing opportunity for investors.

AJ: The One Dinar Mystery @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinarinvestor #iraqidinar

 

Evaluation Of The Central Bank's Journey In 22 Years, 7 MARCH

 Evaluation Of The Central Bank's Journey In 22 Years

Samir Al-Nusairi

Since 2003, the Iraqi economy has suffered from financial and banking challenges and crises due to the difficult and complex subjective and objective circumstances that the country has gone through over the past 22 years. 

Since the monetary policy of the Central Bank, according to its Law No. 56 issued in 2004, is responsible for achieving economic stability, overcoming the challenges of the financial and monetary system, and addressing the structural imbalance in the economy in the transition from a rentier economy to a real (productive) economy, as well as from a monetary economy to a digital economy.

During the above period, the Central Bank went through four important and basic stages:

First - reducing rampant inflation in 2003, which exceeded 35%, controlling the stability of the exchange rate, building foreign reserves, and controlling the money supply.

Second - overcoming the economic and security shocks in 2014.

Third - addressing the financial crisis during the Corona pandemic in 2020.

Fourth - controlling the exchange rate, regulating foreign trade financing, achieving digital transformation, enhancing financial inclusion, and complying with international standards in 2023 and 2024

Considering that the Central Bank, in cooperation with the government, has accomplished important steps towards implementing the financial and banking reform methodology and moving towards completing its strategy to achieve the goals according to the roadmap drawn up in 2025,

it is necessary to evaluate and analyze the economic reality over the past 22 years with impartiality and high transparency and identify cases of failure and dysfunction in the productive economic sectors and procrastination in not implementing the economic reform programs that all successive governments have worked on but have not been able to achieve the goals of radical and comprehensive reform for the reasons above. 

However, the reality of the situation and the reform efforts made in 2023 and 2024 have made us, as specialists, look with hope and optimism at what has been achieved and what is planned to be achieved in the next two years based on what is stated in the third strategy of the Central Bank with its main and sub-goals.

The banking reform steps taken by the Central Bank from 2003 to 2024 addressed the effects of the economic and security shocks in 2014, most notably the 75% drop in global oil prices and the government’s inability to pay employees’ salaries on time. 

The Central Bank was able to use its foreign exchange reserves and the method of rediscounting treasury transfers to support the government in the amount of 16 trillion dinars, and the crisis was overcome at the time. 

In 2015, the Central Bank, in light of these difficult economic conditions, began to move to develop its plans for the coming years and draw up a methodology for banking reform and structural, technical and administrative development of the Central Bank. 

This resulted in the issuance of its first strategy for the years (2016-2020),
which included 5 main objectives and 140 sub-objectives, 129 of which were achieved, at a rate of 92%, during the years of implementing the strategy. 

It contributed to establishing the basic structures and pillars for moving to a new stage of financial and banking reform, accompanied by the strategic banking projects plan for the years (2019-2023) and the issuance of the second strategy (2021-2023) to complete the achievement of the sub-objectives that could not be implemented in the first strategy, which numbered (11) sub-objectives, during which the government continued to seek help from the Central Bank and obtain (30) trillion dinars, and the total amount owed by the government became (46) trillion dinars. 

In 2023, the Central Bank worked on studying the achievements of the two previous strategies and diagnosing the foundations of the desired reform. 

The efforts to prepare for the third strategy continued throughout 2023, and the foundations and foundations were built to set the goals for this new strategy for the years (2024-2026), which derived its main and sub-goals from the state's general economic policies and its strategy for financial and banking reform adopted by the government in the government program and from Central Bank Law 56 of 2004. 

It included programs with clear goals and initiatives for a period of three years in a special, complex economic and financial circumstance fraught with risks and challenges at the level of internal and external economic and financial relations.

The third strategy identified the main goals with 7 goals, 24 sub-goals and 75 initiatives to achieve
the main and sub-goals and charted the path for banking and financial reform according to the following strategic goals:

1- Supporting and enhancing monetary stability.
2- Enhancing digital transformation, activating electronic payment and supporting cybersecurity.
3- Enhancing financial inclusion
4- Maintaining a sound financial system
5- Developing the organizational structure and human resource capabilities
6- Enhancing the position of the Central Bank locally and internationally
7- Enhancing compliance of the banking sector and the non-banking sector in line with international standards.

Programs, policies and initiatives have been identified to achieve the goals. Perhaps the most prominent program is the launch of the National Strategy for Bank Lending in Iraq (2024-2029) and the approval of the Council of Ministers to implement it, which will restructure banking financing in Iraq, 

in addition to leaving the electronic platform and adopting correspondent banks in foreign transfers, 

protecting the financial system, 

enhancing financial inclusion, 

managing monetary and financial stability, 

developing oversight and supervision,

developing regulation in the banking sector, 

completing the development of the infrastructure for digital transformation, 

licensing digital banks, 

implementing regulatory policies in the Central Bank in accordance with the frameworks and technologies adopted in global central banks, 

raising the capabilities of human resources, 

developing banking operations, strengthening the bank's internal and external relations, 

and representing it locally and internationally.

What has been presented accurately and transparently for the 22 years of the financial and banking reform process confirms that the next two years will inevitably result in the transition to a comprehensive and radical reform of the Iraqi banking sector and transforming it into a solid sector that contributes to sustainable development.   https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=53139