NADER FROM MID EAST CC HIGHLIGHTS NOTES, 2 MARCH

 NADER FROM MID EAST CC HIGHLIGHTS NOTES

Chapter Summary: Fluctuations in the Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate (2005-2024)

Introduction

In recent years, the Iraqi dinar has experienced significant volatility against the US dollar, particularly in the parallel market. A comprehensive report released by the Future Iraq Institute for Economic Studies and Consultations analyzes this fluctuation over a span of nearly two decades, from 2005 to 2024. 

The report emphasizes the interplay of internal and external factors that have shaped the dinar’s exchange rate, pointing out that understanding these dynamics is crucial for economic stability in Iraq. Key concepts such as supply and demand, national budget releases, and geopolitical conditions are fundamental to grasping the fluctuations of the dinar. This summary will dissect the report’s findings, presenting the critical elements influencing the exchange rate and their implications for the broader economic landscape.

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Key Factors Influencing Exchange Rate Volatility

Supply and Demand Dynamics

• Supply and demand are identified as primary drivers of the dinar’s value fluctuations.
• The exchange rate is significantly affected by varying levels of demand for foreign currency, particularly the US dollar.
• The report notes that changes in the exchange rate have been inconsistent, varying from month to month due to a combination of both internal economic conditions and external market influences.

Timing of National Budget Releases

• The timing of the national budget release plays a pivotal role in influencing the exchange rate.
• Periods surrounding the budget release often correlate with shifts in the dinar’s value, as government spending and fiscal policies impact the overall economy.

Seasonal Patterns

• The report highlights distinct seasonal patterns in exchange rate movements:

  • December: The dinar appreciates in value in 13 out of 21 years analyzed.
  • August and June: Each month shows significant gains in 11 years.
  • April: The dinar appreciates in 10 instances.
  • October and November: Notable improvements in 9 years.
  • March: Increased value noted 8 times.
  • May: The month with the least depreciation, showcasing a rise in only 4 years.

• The consistent pattern reveals that early months of the year, particularly February, March, and April, tend to witness appreciation of the dinar, while May often sees a decline due to heightened demand.

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Political and Financial Factors

Central Bank Dollar Sales

• The Iraqi Central Bank’s dollar sales are crucial in managing the money supply within the market.
• These sales directly influence the availability of the US dollar, thereby affecting the dinar’s exchange rate.

Geopolitical Conditions

• The report underscores that geopolitical conditions significantly impact currency demand and supply.
• Unexpected disruptions in demand for foreign currency can lead to heightened volatility in the exchange rate.

Legislative and Economic Conditions

• Political developments and legislative changes also play a role in shaping the economic environment, which subsequently influences the exchange rate.
• The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these factors to understand their impact on the parallel market.

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Case Studies and Real-World Examples

Historical Data Analysis

• The report includes a thorough analysis of exchange rate data from 2015 to 2024, identifying recurring trends and patterns.
• This longitudinal study allows for a clearer understanding of how specific months historically influence the dinar’s value.

Implications of Seasonal Trends

• The consistent seasonal trends suggest that economic stakeholders, including policymakers and investors, should anticipate fluctuations based on historical data.
• For instance, the appreciation of the dinar in December could signal a favorable period for investments or economic activities.

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Conclusion

The analysis presented by the Future Iraq Institute reveals that while seasonal patterns play a significant role in the fluctuations of the Iraqi dinar, there are multifaceted factors such as monetary policy, political developments, and economic conditions that also contribute to its volatility.

 Understanding these dynamics is essential for stakeholders looking to navigate the complexities of the Iraqi economy. The report’s findings underscore the necessity of continuous monitoring of internal and external variables to achieve a more nuanced comprehension of exchange rate movements.

 The implications of these fluctuations extend beyond mere currency values, affecting trade, investment, and economic stability in Iraq. Thus, a comprehensive approach to analyzing the dinar’s exchange rate is crucial for fostering a more resilient and predictable economic environment.

MNT GOAT: IRAQ IS NOW SERIOUS ABOUT MOVING AHEAD @DINARREVALUATION

Oil Price: Washington pressured Baghdad on Kurdistan oil to limit Iran’s exports, 2 MARCH

 Oil Price: Washington pressured Baghdad on Kurdistan oil to limit Iran’s exports

Shafaq News / The American energy-based oil press website published on Friday a report on the resumption of oil pumping from the Kurdistan Region, stressing that Washington pressured Baghdad for this, to reduce Iranian oil exports.

According to the report translated by Shafaq News, “despite the Iraqi federal government’s assurances that the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan is imminent, foreign oil companies operating in the region said they will not resume oil exports today.”

The report noted that “oil exports from Kurdistan have now been suspended for nearly two years, after being stopped since March 2023 due to the dispute over who should allow Kurdish exports.”

He explained that “the companies that are members of APIKUR for the export of oil from the region are ready to resume exports immediately once formal agreements are reached to provide guarantee of payment for previous and future exports in accordance with the current legal and contractual terms.”

The report said that “foreign oil producers in Kurdistan want agreements and firm guarantees before resuming exports, while Baghdad is under pressure from the United States to allow the supply of Kurdish supplies to the market, as the Trump administration is looking to impose a significant reduction in Iranian oil exports as part of the “maximum pressure” campaign.

Eight international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region announced on Friday that they would not resume oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan despite Baghdad’s announcement of the imminent export resumption.

The Kurdistan Petroleum Industry Association (Abecor), which represents 60% of the region’s production, said that “no official contacts have been made to clarify trade agreements and guarantees of payment for past and future exports.”

Earlier on Friday, Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs and Minister of Oil, Eng. Hayyan Abdul Ghani, announced the start resumption of Kurdistan Region oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan in the coming hours, in a statement he made on the sidelines of his visit to the port of Khor Al-Zubair to see the operations of connecting the gas pipe, and quoted by the Ministry of Oil in a statement.

https://www.shafaq.com/ar/سیاسة/ويل-برايس-واشنطن-ضغطت-على-بغداد-بش-ن-نفط-كوردستان-لتحجيم-صادرات-يران

MAJEED UPDATE, 2 MARCH

 MAJEED

They decided to meet on Tuesday to sign the agreement for payment Resuming oil export is ready to go once the agreement is signed on Tuesday Which requires releasing the budget

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APIKUR spokesperson Myles Caggins told Zoom News the group’s eight member companies are ready to resume oil exports in the Kurdistan Region once they receive guarantees for payment and a plan to settle outstanding debts.

MAJEED : BIG CHANGES WILL COME IN THE 2025 FOR THE IRAQI DINAR @DINARREV...

Al-Alak: Iraq adopts the most disciplined and controlled mechanism in the world to control the dollar, 2 MARCH

 Al-Alak: Iraq adopts the most disciplined and controlled mechanism in the world to control the dollar

Baghdad – Mil

The Governor of the Central Bank, Ali Al-Alak, considered on Saturday that Iraq and Iraq adopts the most disciplined and controlled mechanism in the world to control the dollar, warning of the “media distortion” on the banking sector.

Al-Alak told the official agency that “Iraq has become today one of the best countries in the world in controlling the sale of the dollar, as this process is carried out with transparency and accuracy, and the citizen verifies through it his documents and leaving the country,” explaining that “this mechanism is the most disciplined, transparent and control in the world, as indicated by international experts.”

Al-Alak noted that “erroneous news and media distortion may harm the interest of Iraq and the banking sector,” stressing “the importance of being proud of the great developments in Iraq.”

He pointed out that “the government and the central bank are working hard to establish sound practices that are in accordance with international standards,” calling for “the need to highlight these achievements in the media.”

He pointed out that “highlighting these transformations and developments helps to strengthen international confidence in the Iraqi banking sector, which is vital to further develop the financial system in Iraq.”

https://miliq.news/political/43333–.html

Awake-in-3D: A Gold Monetary Reset is Happening Now, 2 march

 Awake-in-3D: A Gold Monetary Reset is Happening Now

Something Unprecedented is Happening with Gold—A Gold Monetary Reset is Happening Now

Awake-In-3D
February 28, 2025

Gold is reclaiming its role in the financial system, signaling a shift we haven’t seen in over five decades.

A Monetary Shift Unlike Any Other

For the first time since 1971, gold is no longer just a hedge against inflation—it is at the center of a financial shift that could redefine the global monetary system. The world has relied on a debt-driven economy for decades, but cracks are beginning to show. Now, a gold monetary reset is unfolding, and the implications could be historic.

What’s driving this transformation, and what does it mean for the future of money? The answers lie in a series of economic and geopolitical moves that are reshaping the role of gold in ways we haven’t seen in over 50 years.

Text links highlighted in blue are informative things I read. You should too! 

The 1971 Shock: The Last Time Gold Threatened the System

To understand why gold is now at the forefront of a potential monetary reset, we must look back to August 15, 1971, when President Richard Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold.

• Up until then, foreign governments could redeem U.S. dollars for gold at $35 per ounce.
  
• But rising U.S. debt, inflation, and excessive money printing made this system unsustainable.
  
• When France and other nations began demanding gold for their dollars, Nixon abruptly closed the gold window, effectively defaulting on the U.S.’s gold obligations.

Since that moment, the world has relied on a purely debt-based monetary system—one that has allowed governments to print unlimited money but is now reaching its breaking point.

The question is: What happens when the system can no longer sustain itself?

The Global Gold Puzzle: Why These Reserves Matter Now More Than Ever

For decades, the U.S. has claimed to hold 8,133 metric tons of gold—more than any other nation. Yet where this gold is actually stored is often overlooked:

• Fort Knox: Allegedly holds 4,581 metric tons (~56% of total U.S. reserves). This is the site most people associate with U.S. gold holdings, but it has not undergone a full audit in over 40 years.
  
• New York Federal Reserve: Stores roughly 6,190 metric tons of gold—more gold than Fort Knox—but most of this belongs to foreign governments, central banks, and international organizations rather than the U.S. Treasury.

Despite the New York Fed housing more gold than Fort Knox, its role in U.S. gold policy is rarely discussed. Some reports indicate that much of this gold is leased, swapped, or rehypothecated, meaning multiple parties hold claims on the same gold.

Why does this matter now? Because if the world begins to doubt the existence or accessibility of U.S. gold, confidence in the dollar’s credibility could erode rapidly—accelerating a shift away from the fiat-based system.

The Shocking Gold Disconnect: Markets Are Ignoring the Obvious

The financial world continues to ignore gold’s increasing significance. Consider this:

• Central banks globally hold $3 trillion worth of gold, yet Microsoft alone has a market capitalization of $3 trillion.
  
• The gold price (currently ranging between 42,850 and 42,950 per ounce over the past week) has failed to reflect its historical role in economic stability, despite rising debt and inflation.
  
• The U.S. national debt now exceeds $36 trillion, making it mathematically impossible to repay without massive inflation or a currency reset.

This massive disconnect between gold and financial assets suggests that gold remains artificially suppressed—but history shows that suppression never lasts forever. When it breaks, it does so v*******y and suddenly.

The Acceleration Phase: Why This Gold Monetary Reset Will Be Unlike Any Other

For decades, gold has been dismissed as a relic of the past. But now, central banks are buying at record levels, signaling that something big is coming:

• 2022-2023: Central banks purchased more gold than at any time in history, even surpassing the Bretton Woods era.
  
• The gold-silver ratio is 91:1, meaning silver is historically undervalued and could move 2-3 times faster than gold in an upcoming rally.
  
• Interest rates are rising, making debt-based assets less attractive, while gold, which has no counterparty risk, is becoming more desirable.

Unlike previous gold bull markets, this one stems from structural cracks in the global financial system—not just investor speculation.

The Endgame: Is a Global Gold Monetary Reset Already Underway?

What if the real story isn’t about gold’s price, but rather its return to monetary dominance? There are growing signs that a new gold-backed system is being quietly prepared:

• BRICS nations are increasing gold reserves, with China’s gold purchases accelerating significantly.
  
• The IMF has hinted at a new global reserve currency based on a basket of assets and gold. The IMF currently holds over 2,800 metric tons of gold! Did you know that? I didn’t…
  
• U.S. Treasury bonds are losing their global appeal, leading to speculation that a gold-backed alternative may emerge.

We may be witnessing the beginning of a financial transition where gold regains its place as a global standard.

The Gold Monetary Reset Reckoning Has Arrived

For the first time since 1971, gold is being forced back into the spotlight—not by choice, but by necessity. The world’s debt-driven system is crumbling under its own weight, and history suggests that when fiat money loses trust, gold becomes the default solution.

This isn’t just another gold rally. This is the beginning of a structural shift—a move toward a gold monetary reset where gold plays a defining role.

The question is no longer if gold will reassert itself, but when—and whether you’ll be prepared when it does.