Member: Another Intel person says IQD rate being 4.75 and contract rate at 5.19. And possible announcement on Saturday.
Member: Majeed is indicating Iraq Forex this Weekend!
Member: That would be amazing.
MZ: I am hearing they have sped things up massively in the last 10 days.
Member: With Kuwait having the highest currency in the world, it makes no sense for Iraq to revalue at a rate too much higher than Kuwait.
Member: Mark why hasn’t 4b got notifications for the rv? what are your thoughts on when it would happen?
MZ: I have zero bond updates today. This may have been one of the longest stretches I have seen in weeks with nothing on that front. Same with PP’s CMKX ect…..contacts are not sharing information. They have really tightened up the lips. Zipped the lips
Member: Maybe that is good news then?
MZ: We are hearing in Iraq some kind of agreement was reached with Sudani and crew and they are expecting fireworks on Friday –or completion in the voting……That is what I was told this morning from a contact in Iraq. We will see how this plays out.
In light of global economic challenges and fluctuations in oil prices, attention is directed to the financial situation of Iraq and its stability during the current year, the Prime Minister’s Advisor for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, confirmed in statements to Baghdad Today that the monetary reserve of the Central Bank of Iraq is “reassuring”, and there is no fear of a liquidity crisis during this year.
He pointed out that the global demand for oil will remain high, which enhances the financial stability of Iraq, which relies heavily on oil revenues, but in light of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about the future of the global economy, the same question arises: Does Iraq really have a solid financial strategy that protects it from any sudden economic shocks?
Cash reserve: reassuring numbers but…
The appearance of Mohammed Saleh indicates that the Central Bank of Iraq manages cash reserves efficiently, which ensures the stability of financial liquidity, and the cash reserve is a fundamental pillar to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and ensure the ability to meet the financial needs of the state.
According to government sources, the central bank’s reserve has exceeded the $100 billion barrier in recent months, a figure seen as “reassuring” by financial experts, but total reliance on this reserve may be a double-edged sword, especially if the economy is under unexpected pressures, such as falling oil prices or political crises affecting domestic and external investments.
Oil prices: a stabilizing factor or a threat?
Saleh stressed that oil prices will not fall below $70 per barrel, considering this a positive matter for Iraq, which depends on oil revenues to finance its general budget, but economic observers warn that oil markets are characterized by instability, especially with the escalation of political tensions in the region and the possibility of a slowdown in the global economy.
Historically, Iraq witnessed severe economic crises when oil prices fell, as happened in 2014 and 2020, forcing the government to take austerity measures and resort to internal and external borrowing to fill the budget deficit, so any sudden drop in oil prices may bring Iraq back to similar scenarios.
Non-oil revenues: are you going in the right direction?
The financial adviser noted that non-oil revenues are “going properly,” referring to the government’s attempts to boost other sources of income, such as taxes, customs, and investments in non-oil sectors.
However, non-oil revenues still constitute a small percentage of the total national income, which raises questions about the government’s seriousness in achieving economic diversification. Some analysts believe that Iraq needs serious structural reforms in the industrial and agriculture sectors, in addition to enhancing the investment climate to attract foreign capital, which has not been concretely achieved so far.
Economic Challenges: Is Iraq Immune to Crises?
In his statements, Saleh explained that Iraq has overcome major crises such as terrorism and the COVID-19 pandemic, making him more capable of facing any future challenges, but at the same time acknowledged that “the collapse of the global economy or the fall in oil prices beyond our control,” an implicit recognition that Iraq remains vulnerable to external factors.
The challenges that may affect the Iraqi economy in the next phase lie in political and security tensions. Any escalation in the region may lead to the fluctuation of oil markets and negatively affect financial flows.
Also, administrative and financial corruption, as Iraq still faces great challenges in combating corruption, which is a major factor hindering economic development, in addition to unemployment and the weakness of the private sector. Unless the business environment is strengthened and investments are encouraged, the public sector will remain the main operator, which increases the pressure on the general budget, with the exchange rate and inflation factors, as despite the stability of the Iraqi dinar, any disturbances in global markets may lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate and increased inflation.
Is Iraq moving towards a developed economy?
The Iraqi government’s statements reflect optimism about the country’s ability to maintain its financial stability, but they do not hide the fact that the economy is still fragile in the face of external variables. Despite the current good monetary reserves and stable oil prices, the absence of a clear economic strategy to diversify sources of income puts Iraq in an insecured position in the long term.
The question remains: Can the government implement real reforms that guarantee long-term stability, or can the current optimism be just a period of calm before facing new challenges?
“Longest Stretch” – Coffee with MarkZ Intel Stream Highlights 1-30-25
MarkZ Update – Some highlights by PDK-Not verbatim
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
Member: Good morning, everyone. I grieve for family members who lost loved ones on either the American Airlines aircraft or the military helicopter. H******e accident.
Member: Our thoughts, and prayers go out to the people, and the Families of everyone involved in that tragic, tragic Accident…
Member: Can’t we ever just go a week or two without some heartbreaking news???
MZ: A terrible tragedy……many details will be coming out today. Lots of conspiracy theories….we will be hearing more throughout the day.
Member: BREAKING: President Trump will hold a press briefing in the D.C. aviation disaster at 11 am EST.
Member: Some are saying nothing until Chinese new year ends and HSBC is open on Monday next week
Member: Another Intel person says IQD rate being 4.75 and contract rate at 5.19. And possible announcement on Saturday.
Member: Majeed is indicating Iraq Forex this Weekend!
Member: That would be amazing.
MZ: I am hearing they have sped things up massively in the last 10 days.
Member: With Kuwait having the highest currency in the world, it makes no sense for Iraq to revalue at a rate too much higher than Kuwait.
Member: Mark why hasn’t 4b got notifications for the rv? what are your thoughts on when it would happen?
MZ: I have zero bond updates today. This may have been one of the longest stretches I have seen in weeks with nothing on that front. Same with PP’s CMKX ect…..contacts are not sharing information. They have really tightened up the lips. Zipped the lips
Member: Maybe that is good news then?
MZ: We are hearing in Iraq some kind of agreement was reached with Sudani and crew and they are expecting fireworks on Friday –or completion in the voting……That is what I was told this morning from a contact in Iraq. We will see how this plays out.
MZ: “ The most prominent of which is civil aviation: Parliamentary transport plans to put three important laws to a vote.” I think this is an important one. They havn’t been allowed to fly the Iraqi flag on their planes ect…..since 2002. Guess what….they are going international again and are allowed to proudly fly their colors. We are seeing signs Iraq is now fully international again. Big news.
MZ: “Iraq oil settles at $78 a barrel for the second executive day” Things now appear less tumultuous in the energy markets .
MZ: We see pressure on Iraq from the US treasury and there are representatives from all over the world for some reason…..right now in Iraq. This tells us of International business –if nothing else.
MZ: Iraq has to be international, secure and safe, and stable oil prices preferably at $70 or more.
MZ: “ Kirkuk signs
the first investment contract to establish an oil refinery in the province” Iraq wants to become fully energy independent. They pump their own oil, refine it and sell it. In the past they just produced it and it was sent elsewhere around the world to be treated and refined. With their own refinery their oil will become highly profitable with refined gas, lubricants ect…..and make exponentially more money than they are now.
MZ: “2 economists say Iraq’s foreign reserves are reassuring compared to previous years” Iraq has large cash reserves that are greater than 100% of the volume of the issued currency. They have more assets, more money backing up the dinar then they have in circulation. So Iraq has over 100% backing for their currency…..This is important as most countries only have 20% or so to back their currencies.
MZ: “3 scenarios for Iraq under Trump including “guardians of the region” The most likely one is Trump working with international parties and strengthening Iraq to be guardians of the region.
Member: The london metals exchange is in a lot of trouble because their physical gold is Depleted bigly.
Member: Mark what’s your opinion on which currencies are in the basket with the dinar?
Member: A list from awhile ago…..may still be accurate. 1. US 2. UK 3. Kuwait 4. Canada 5. Mexico 6. Russia 7. China 8. Venezuela 9. Iranian Rial 10. IRAQ 11. Indonesia Rupiah 12. Malaysia 13. Vietnamese 14. Brazil 15. Saudi Arabia 16. Qatar 17. United Arab Emirates 18. Turkey 19. Afghanistan possibly20. India 21. Libya 22. Japan23. Zimbabwe
Member: Could Iraq’s RV (revaluation) be in the double digits.
MZ: I could be if you look at all the numbers I have shared with you and listen to Dr. Shabibi years ago who said Iraq could support a $16 rate……and back then there was far more dinar in circulation then there is now…..So it could be. I will just continue to think “lower” so I am not disappointed.
Member: plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Member: Thank you Mark for all you do thanks to your crew
Member: Everyone have a safe and hopeful day…..The best is yet to come.
Member: Never give up…..its coming
Wendy from Lifevantage is on the stream today. Please listen to the replay for her information.
THE CONTENT IN THIS PODCAST IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY&NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE ANY PROFESSIONAL, FINANCIAL OR LEGAL ADVICE. PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN MARKZ’S OPINION ONLY
FRANK26: "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE... LET'S CHANGE THE EXCHANGE RATE".......F26
Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq meets an official delegation from the United States
January 26, 2025
His Excellency the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, Mr. Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq, received Mr. Steve Lutes, Vice President of the US Chamber of Commerce and Chairman of the US-Iraq Business Council, and his accompanying delegation in Baghdad. During the meeting, they discussed banking and economic relations between the two countries and the upcoming visit of the Central Bank of Iraq delegation to Washington and their meeting with the US Chamber of Commerce and American companies next April. The meeting discussed the desire of American companies to invest in the energy, infrastructure and modern technology sectors and to invest
in the security stability witnessed by Iraq. His Excellency the Governor stressed during the meeting that the Central Bank of Iraq supports the economic growth process in Iraq and provides the necessary support to international companies wishing to invest in Iraq, including American companies and banks, noting the importance of diversification in investment sectors. The two parties also discussed the mechanisms of international trade and the process of Iraq's transition to fully operating in foreign transfers through correspondent banks.The Director General of the Investment Department and the Director of Supervision of Non-Banking Financial Companies attended from the Central Bank, in addition to His Excellency the Governor .
Central Bank of Iraq Media Office January 26, 2025
Article: "Between economic experts’ warnings and government denial, the value of the Iraqi dinar is at stake"
Quote: "...the Iraqi government has any intention to reduce the value of the dinar against the dollar,
despite rumors indicating upcoming measures to confront economic pressures and challenges in the international market...
Any change in the exchange rate during the current stage or within the 2025 budget schedules will lead to negative results, and that is why the government is committed to strengthening the current rate."THE POINT OF THIS ARTICLE IS THAT THEY WILL NOT DEVALUE! RUMORS ARE BEING SQUELCHED. IMO THESE ECONOMISTS ARE NOT GOI OFFICIALS..