Monday, December 23, 2024

The Road ahead for Iraq’s underdeveloped Stock Market, 23 DEC

The Road ahead for Iraq’s underdeveloped Stock Market


Shafaq News/ Iraq’s stock market considered a vital pillar for channeling savings into investments, remains underdeveloped and overshadowed by regional counterparts.


 Authorities are striving to revitalize the market to attract investors and promote economic diversification, however, challenges such as political instability, limited industrial and agricultural sectors, and bureaucratic hurdles continue to impede progress.



Market Overview



The Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) was established in 1992 as the Baghdad Stock Exchange under Law No. 24 of 1991. It was later renamed in 2003, listing 113 private and mixed companies at its inception. However, despite its long history, the ISX lags behind neighboring markets in trading volume and overall activity.


Foreign investors remain hesitant, citing Iraq’s political and economic instability, as well as complex administrative and legal procedures for opening accounts and transferring profits. These barriers contribute to the market’s small size and limited appeal.

Economic Challenges and Market Dynamics

Muzher Mohammed Saleh, financial advisor to Iraq’s prime minister, highlighted the structural issues plaguing Iraq’s economy. “The country inherited a mono-reliant economy heavily dependent on oil revenues, exacerbated by decades of war, sanctions, and economic isolation,” Saleh told Shafaq News.


“Unfortunately, the industrial and agricultural sectors, which are essential for diversifying the stock market, are significantly weak.”


These two sectors collectively contribute only 6–7% of Iraq’s GDP, according to Saleh, with most activities being individual rather than corporate. He revealed that the stock market’s underdevelopment mirrors the broader structure of Iraq’s economy, where banking institutions dominate due to the liberalized, oil-dependent economy.


Notably, over 50% of ISX’s activity stems from banking institutions.


“The government’s new economic strategy focuses on fostering a production-oriented partnership between the public and private sectors to enhance economic diversification,” Saleh added. He noted that the success of the stock market hinges on achieving broader economic diversity and strengthening foundational sectors like industry and agriculture.


Market Constraints

While regional markets in the Gulf and North Africa have modernized rapidly, Iraq’s stock market has struggled to keep pace. Broker Mohammed Madloul pointed out that neighboring markets like Egypt and the UAE provide 24-hour stock price tickers in public spaces, allowing citizens to trade shares outside traditional hours. By contrast, trading in Iraq is restricted to specific hours, limiting transaction opportunities.


“In Iraq, the market’s size and activity are constrained,” Madloul said. “Many stocks trade at values below one Iraqi dinar, reflecting the limited scope of investments.” However, he acknowledged some progress in the banking sector, noting that the market capitalization of listed companies grew from 6.88 trillion dinars (about $5.2 billion) in 2021 to 10 trillion dinars in 2024 (about $7.6 billion.)

“This growth highlights a potential for expansion, albeit focused heavily on the banking sector.”



Weak Private Sector

Economic expert Durgham Mohammed Ali attributed the ISX’s small size to the lack of large companies and a strong private sector in Iraq. “The market reflects the weak state of Iraq’s developmental sectors and the public’s lack of trust in it,” Ali told Shafaq News. “The ISX remains technically underdeveloped compared to Gulf markets.”


Ali criticized the lack of efficient investment portfolio management and regulatory constraints imposed by the ISX’s oversight body. “These restrictions limit the operations of brokerage firms and discourage robust investment activities,” he said. “The performance of the market is directly tied to the efficiency of listed companies, which remain weak.”

Modernization Efforts

Despite these challenges, efforts are underway to modernize Iraq’s stock market. Taha Ahmed Abdul-Salam, ISX’s executive director, stressed the importance of stability and long-term corporate vision for attracting investors.


“The number of listed companies has increased from 105 to 107, and we are working to add more,” Abdul-Salam told Shafaq News. “This expansion is essential for attracting new investors.”

Abdul-Salam revealed that the ISX has signed an agreement with the Egyptian Exchange to implement a new Order Management System (OMS), enabling investors to trade via smart devices. “We expect to launch this system by June or July next year,” he said. This modernization is seen as a critical step toward making the market more accessible and competitive with regional counterparts.

DINAR REVALUATION : IRAQ UPDATE, 23 DEC

IRAQ UPDATE

Summary

Iraq is officially transitioning away from dollar dependency, sparking hopes for a significant revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) soon.

Highlights

  • 🚀 Iraq moves away from dollar reliance, ending currency auctions.
  • 🎉 Exciting news about Dinar RV progress shared by various gurus.
  • 💰 Predictions suggest IQD could exceed 1:1 against the USD.
  • 🌍 Iraq’s economic transformation includes non-oil revenues and tourism.
  • 📉 Concerns about currency platforms shutting down soon.
  • 🔮 Speculation around upcoming notifications regarding currency changes.

Key Insights

  • 🏦 Transitioning from dollar dependence is a crucial step for Iraq’s economy, potentially stabilizing the Dinar and enhancing its value.
  • 🌟 The Dinar’s future value hinges on successful monetary reforms, signaling a shift towards a more robust economy.
  • 📊 Increased demand for the Dinar could lead to significant appreciation, outpacing the US dollar.
  • 📈 Iraq’s growing non-oil sectors, such as tourism, are pivotal for economic diversification and sustainability.
  • ⚠️ Recent warnings from officials indicate potential volatility in the dollar’s value, reinforcing the need to monitor the Dinar closely.
  • 🗓️ The timeline for currency notifications remains unclear, but anticipation is mounting for significant changes before the end of the year.
  • 💡 Continuous updates from financial gurus suggest a dynamic environment, highlighting the speculative nature of Dinar investments and the importance of informed decision-making.

EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ: THE EXCHANGE IN NON TAXABLE!! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinarinvestor

 


Parliamentary Committee confirms return of movement regarding preparation of draft oil and gas law , 23 DEC

 Parliamentary Committee confirms return of movement regarding preparation of draft oil and gas law

Member of the Oil and gasoline Committee, MP Basem Al-Gharibawi, showed on Saturday that there’s a choice among the political forces to legislate the oil and fuel law within the close to future, via the return of the joint committees to paintings so that you can put together a unified draft of the proposed regulation, with an invite extended to host the federal oil minister and the local minister of natural assets together within the committee.

Al-Gharibawi said in a statement to  “The regulation of the oil and gas law is of utmost significance at the political and monetary stages and is considered one of the fundamental legal guidelines and regulates the connection with the center and the place. Its law has emerge as an pressing and pressing necessity notwithstanding its creation when you consider that 2007.”

He introduced that “the main impediment dealing with the legislators of the law is the paragraph at the tasks of the Federal Council and the powers of the region within the council,” noting that “there’s a choice some of the political forces to legislate the oil and gas regulation in the close to future through the return of the joint committees to work that allows you to put together a unified draft of the proposed regulation, with an invitation extended to host the federal oil minister and the minister of natural assets in the region together inside the committee.”

it’s miles noteworthy that the committees specialized in drafting the oil and gasoline regulation encompass the federal oil minister, the local minister of natural resources, the general supervisor of SOMO, and senior workforce inside the Ministry of Oil, similarly to the oil-generating provinces along with Basra, Dhi Qar, Maysan, and Kirkuk.

TIDBIT FROM CLARE, 23 DEC

  Clare   

Article Quote:  "Sudani confirmed that non-oil revenues reached 14 percent after they were 7 percent," indicating that "unemployment decreased from 16.5 to 14.4, and the poverty rate decreased from 23 percent to 17 percent."

Article:   "Masrour Barzani discusses regional developments with Trump's national security nominee" 

 Quote:  "the two sides discussed the latest developments in Iraq, the Kurdistan Region and the region in general, and stressed the importance of strengthening bilateral relations and joint work to maintain security and stability in the region."

MNT GOAT: WHAT TOLD ME MY CBI CONTACT HOW WILL ARRIVE OUR RV @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinarinvestor

 


Iraq’s oil production projections for 2025-2026: TAQA platform analysis, 23 DEC

 Iraq’s oil production projections for 2025-2026: TAQA platform analysis


Shafaq News/ Iraq's oil production in 2025 will reach approximately four million barrels per day (bpd) during the first quarter, the TAQA platform forecasted on Saturday.

 

The platform’s analytical review noted that if Iraq adheres to offsetting overproduction beyond OPEC+ quota agreements, production may settle at 3.880 million bpd.


With the reinstatement of 220,000 bpd from Baghdad's voluntary cuts, Iraq's oil production is projected to reach 4.012 million bpd in April 2025, with a net output of 3.892 million bpd after accounting for surplus production compensation.


In 2024, Iraq’s oil production averaged 4.254 million bpd in the first quarter, dropped to 4.214 million bpd in the second, and rose to 4.244 million bpd in the third. 

The analysis projected Iraq's oil production to reach 4.024 million bpd in May 2025, with compensated output at 3.919 million bpd. In June 2025, production is expected to increase to 4.037 million bpd, with compensated output at 3.947 million bpd. 


The report forecasted further increases, with July production reaching 4.049 million bpd (3.959 million bpd post-compensation) and August rising to 4.061 million bpd (3.971 million bpd post-compensation).


In September 2025, production is expected to reach 4.073 million bpd, with compensated output at 3.978 million bpd, completing the surplus compensation. In contrast, Iraq’s oil production in September 2024 dropped to 4.143 million bpd, declining further to 4.089 million bpd in October and 4.043 million bpd in November.


For October 2025, Baghdad’s production is expected to reach 4.086 million bpd, rising to 4.098 million bpd in November, with the highest output projected for December at 4.110 million bpd.


In 2023, Iraq’s average oil production decreased to 4.289 million bpd, down from the daily average of 4.439 million bpd in 2022, due to Baghdad’s commitment to OPEC+ production cuts.

Iraq’s Oil Production in 2026

The platform's analysis estimated Iraq's oil production in 2026 at around 4.431 million bpd, excluding adjustments for production cuts or voluntary reductions under OPEC+ quotas. 

In January 2026, production is expected to total 4.122 million bpd, rising to 4.134 million bpd in February and 4.147 million bpd in March, with monthly growth of 12,000 to 14,000 bpd.

By August 2026, production is expected to reach 4.208 million bpd, stabilizing at 4.220 million bpd from September to December.

MNT GOAT: 🔥 Iraq Political Breakthrough Incoming? April 11 Vote, Oil Law Momentum & What It Means for the Dinar (RV Watch 2026)

🔥 Iraq Political Breakthrough Incoming? April 11 Vote, Oil Law Momentum & What It Means for the Dinar (RV Watch 2026) 🇮🇶 Iraq at a Tu...