Friday, November 22, 2024

TEXAS SNAKE: "his exchange specialist scheduled to begin making appointments Monday around noon"

"THIS GAP HAS BEEN CLOSED BY SUDANI... CITIZENS OF IRAQ YOU'RE NEXT" BY FRANK26, 22 NOV

KTFA

FRANK26: "THIS GAP HAS BEEN CLOSED BY SUDANI... CITIZENS OF IRAQ YOU'RE NEXT"......F26

Dollar-Dinar Exchange Rate Gap: Causes and Treatments

Dr. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al Mansour

11/22/2024

Iraq relies in its monetary policy to monitor the change in the value of its dinar against the dollar on a fixed exchange rate peg system. The overall policy aims to reduce the gap between the official and actual exchange rates and stabilize it close to the target exchange rate, curbing inflation, stimulating markets, commercial, financial and investment transactions, and stimulating growth. Therefore, reducing the exchange gap at the target exchange rate level is one of the prominent issues facing the economic policy maker in Iraq in order to limit the major repercussions that go beyond the economic scope and crystallize significantly in the social stability of the country. This gap becomes more evident through the variation in the dollar exchange rates and the fluctuation of the real value of the dinar. Either positively, it generates revenue, or negatively, it generates additional costs that cause repercussions on purchasing power without taking individuals and economic units into account, negatively affecting local and foreign savings and investment. The more the gap varies, the greater the economic cost of investment and the higher the levels of inflation, which increases the suffering of the limited-income family sector.
It has become known that the size of the Iraqi economy's GDP depends very heavily on the oil dollar, which is the main source of the Ministry of Finance's resources, instead of the non-oil dollar, which is called the non-oil export dollar, which has very low flexibility, resulting in a sharp decline in credit deposits in the accounts of traders exporting goods in Iraqi banks in exporting countries. This dependence exposes the exchange gap to fluctuations in the global oil market. When global oil prices rise, we witness a decrease in the exchange gap due to the increase in the supply of the dollar, while in contrast, during periods of economic recession or when oil prices fall, the gap increases significantly when the government is unable to provide an adequate supply of dollars in the official window for buying and selling dollars. In such cases, traders are forced to search for alternatives through the parallel market, which exacerbates price pressures on the weakest groups.
Referring to the reasons that widened the exchange gap, they are multiple. In addition to what was mentioned above, the reasons can be traced according to the axis of indirect reasons that are linked to the country's trade policy and the problems of border crossings related to dollar smuggling, including those related to activating the role of crossings as an authentic source of revenue. There are also indirect reasons that have a political and security nature and medium- and long-term repercussions on the movement of money and investment.
While economic and monetary reasons stand out at the forefront of direct or technical reasons, some of them are related to the nature of the banking system and the extent of its credit capacity and the level of banking compliance with the monetary and credit conditions of the Federal Reserve, which affects the levels of supply of the petrodollar. Therefore, we find that many international banks refuse to work as correspondent banks due to the low credit rating of our banking system as a result of smuggling operations, money laundering and sanctions that affect a third of Iraqi banks. Therefore, we find that they do not stand up in this regard, except for banks that have external partnerships with Arab banking capital. They derive international acceptance from the quality of the credit rating of those countries, which facilitates the process of opening accounts with correspondent banks. Therefore, there is fear that pressures on the dollar exchange rate will increase, widening the gap.

It is also noted that among the technical reasons that led to the widening of the gap are the successive changes in the official exchange rate threshold taken by successive government administrations. The gap witnessed a transition at the end of 2020 from the stable situation in which the gap between the official exchange rate of 0.118 dinars per dollar and the actual exchange rate of 1,200 dinars narrowed, to raise the threshold in 2021 to 1,450 due to the decision of the Central Bank at the time. Then the threshold rose this time after the Council of Ministers approved in February 2023 the decision of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Iraq to amend the official exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar, to the threshold of 1,300 dinars per dollar.

By following the parallel dollar exchange rate in November of this year 2024, we find that it has reached the limits of 1500 dinars per dollar and exceeded it, and that the Central Bank’s selling price for cash dollars, transfers, documentary credits, and international settlements for electronic cards is at the threshold of 1300 dinars per dollar. Therefore, it is concluded that the gap in the dollar exchange rate against the dinar is still widening despite the pressures of the Federal Reserve and the Central Bank’s efforts towards compliance.

Therefore, dealing with the gap between official and actual spending should require comprehensive, integrated policies that target technical and non-technical treatments within medium- and long-term planning, the most important of which are:

Reforming the structure of the banking system, developing its efficiency, and raising the levels of its credit capacity and the flexibility of its banking compliance.

Developing tools for targeting inflation and exchange rates, which would help reduce the exchange gap and achieve price stability.

Implementing solid reforms in the financial and monetary sectors to enhance the flexibility of banking performance in accordance with the SWIFT global financial settlement system.

Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to achieve the target exchange rate by rationalizing government spending and tightening control over the money supply.

Economic policy should enhance transparency in all financial and banking operations, by implementing clear and strict control systems to contain opportunities for corruption and exploitation of the exchange gap.

Deepening the mechanisms of border control and combating administrative corruption to increase total revenue.

Government authorities must maintain and enhance security and political stability to contribute to building confidence between local and foreign investors on the one hand and the investment environment on the other, which will stimulate further stability and growth.

Formulating an economic policy that targets technical solutions to expand the non-oil production base, and serious planning on how to diversify sources of income for the overall economy. The path of developing the agricultural and industrial sectors will be the decisive factor in reducing imports and stimulating the growth of fixed capital accumulation for the private sector. Hence, the demand for the dollar for consumer import purposes will decrease.

LINK

INTEL BY BRUCE VIA GEM FINCH, 22 NOV

Gem Finch, [22/11/2024 2:47 PM]

Bob had mentioned what happens if I die will my monies be able to be picked up by someone else - do you have an estate planning attorney to build your Trust and those involved with that Trust all organised. The WF bank will be able to arrange some of this for us or you can just go with people and Trusts of your choosing –

but do this as soon as possible. So make sure you are in contact with people that can help you set all these thing up for you. Sooner rather than later. They don’t want you passing away without a Trust in place, with Estate Planning. Remember you need more than just a will – you need a Living Will. These are end of Life type wishes. You definitely don’t want your estate to land up going to the State.

SS increases will also be substantial maybe up to $5,000 a month. Also our Medicare - this was supposed to be FREE. That should now change under DJT in the coming months, so we don’t have to pay for it.

We are hearing two different things say tomorrow Friday and depending if it’s before noon we could exchange later in the day and Friday Saturday - but also we have heard that we should get maybe notified Friday / Saturday and start our exchanges early next week – and the Treasury looked at this and thought they’d like to do it Friday and although Bruce isn’t calling - but it does look very good for us to have these exchanges well before Thanksgiving.

A lot of even some bankers really don’t know what is going on. Now Bruce is back to talking about the R&R for those younger ones, but everyone is going to be looked after. But the lump sum for the over 60’s is sounding really good. Make sure you get that estate planning set up – and if you have Trust papers already take them with you to the exchange, so then you can set up the bank account in the name of your Trust.

Now Bruce is talking again about all that has to be done to set up that QFS account – but he’s of course gone over all that so many times before. But again he’s saying it will be a good idea to write down some Pins and Passwords ahead of time. It’s believed only at the RC that you will be offered a contract rate - Dong is going to be a great rate as are all the other currencies.

Now about those RC’s the leaders that send out the emails and the leaders to the banks have received those emails to be sent out and our understanding is sometime tomorrow. And then they the leaders - certain people are in charge of getting these out to the RC leaders all across this country. Keep an eye on your email tomorrow and set your appointment – you don’t have to be first.

So IF this comes through and we do get this tomorrow and if Saturday and we can exchange on Saturday great or very EARLY next week – will they exchange on Thanksgiving Bruce thinks that might well be possible, maybe they’ll work in shifts. And they will go with this until all the Zim is in.

MIKE BARA: "WE'VE GOT THE GREEN LIGHT" @DINARREVALUATION

US-Kurdistan business delegation signals strengthened economic ties, diversified investments, 22 NOV

US-Kurdistan business delegation signals strengthened economic ties, diversified investments

Nov. 21, 2024

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – The Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) Representative to the United States, Treefa Aziz, stated that the arrival of a senior delegation from the US-Kurdistan Business Council (USKBC) showcases heightened American interest in the Kurdistan Region.

The delegation, one of the largest since the council’s inception in 2012, underscores the evolving economic partnership between the two regions.

“This year’s delegation is larger than previous years, reflecting the growing interest of American businesses in Kurdistan,” Aziz said during an interview.

Over the past week, the group engaged in productive meetings in Erbil with senior KRG officials, the presidency office, and key business entities, including the chambers of commerce from Hewler (Erbil), Duhok, Sulaimani, and Halabja, alongside the Kurdistan Investment Board.

A Broader Investment Horizon

While historically centered on energy, particularly oil and gas, this year’s delegation expanded its scope to include defense, security, hospitality, food services, and other industries. "We’re encouraged by the interest of both long-standing companies and new entrants," Aziz noted.

The KRG, in alignment with its strategic goal of economic diversification, aims to reduce reliance on the energy sector.

Areas such as agriculture, banking, tourism, and healthcare are identified as priority sectors for future collaboration with American businesses.

“Kurdistan’s business-friendly regulations, open-market policies, and secure environment make it an attractive destination for foreign investment, particularly from the US,” Aziz emphasized.

She highlighted the positive role of supportive terms and contracts, distinguishing the Kurdistan Region from the rest of Iraq.

Oil Resumption and Regional Stability

One focal point of discussions revolved around the recent agreements between the KRG and the Iraqi government to resume oil exports, which had been halted for nearly 20 months.

According to Aziz, the resumption represents a significant victory for Kurdistan, Iraq, and global energy markets amid rising demand for oil and gas.

“American oil companies operating here for over two decades are keen to partner with the KRG to ensure a stable resumption of exports,” she stated.

US Commitment to Economic Growth

Aziz praised the collaborative efforts of the US government and the Consulate General in Erbil, led by Consul General Steve Bittner, in fostering bilateral economic relationships.

She described the partnership as a “360-degree relationship,” encompassing defense, security, and economic development.

Looking ahead, Aziz expressed optimism about working with the next US administration to strengthen economic ties further. “The focus on democracies and economic prosperity globally aligns with the Kurdistan Region’s aspirations.

We’re hopeful this partnership will continue to thrive,” she concluded.

The visit of the US delegation marks a pivotal step in advancing Kurdistan’s economic prospects, reinforcing its position as a stable and business-friendly hub within Iraq.

Coffee with MarkZ and Mr. Cottrell. 11/22/2024

MarkZ Update- Some highlights by PDK-Not verbatim

MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions

Member: TGIF and Good Morning to everyone.

Member: Thank God its Friday!! Always love Fridays as it means the weekend is very close, just like all the changes in this world!

Member: I have a feeling today is going to be a very big day.

Member: Today is the anniversary of JFK’s death. Nov 22, 1963, in Dealy Plaza, Dallas Texas, President John F. Kennedy was shot and killed on National TV.

MZ: Bond news is all over the place and we are trying to figure out what is real and what is not. They thought they were supposed to be paid last night….now its before the weekend or over the weekend…we are getting a lot of different stories from different people.

MZ: One group leader did say they may actually get paid Sunday night to Monday morning. So there is a little chatter on that front.

Member: Poor bond holders. What a roller coaster ride for them

Member: I hope the rails of the roller coaster stay grounded now……, they have been used a lot through the years!! LOL

Member: no need for the ups and downs. when it happens then we all will know.

MZ: “Parliament will resume the session next week and clarify the mechanisms for extending its legislative term.” They are committed to finishing some key things before they call it a holiday. The session is still expected to end just before Dec 10th which is “Victory Day” I am still hearing HCL is in there as well. And hopefully a rate change.

MZ: “Economist: The total cost of the general population census amounted to $951 billion dinars” This is about $80 million dollars. Cudos to the Iraqi government and their accurate census. I am told they should have the numbers by Sunday.

MZ: People I know in Iraq have been saying the HCL is waiting for those census numbers. And should be approved quickly after the census totals are released.

Member: And the HCL needs a new rate.

MZ: “The Iraqi government : We must adapt to the new political situation in the US” Sudani has had a great conversation with trump. The world changes and they need to adjust to it.

Member: When currencies reset and go 1 to 1 would we have already exchanged for a better rate?

MZ: Yes. We will have already exchanged before parity happens.

Member: First adjust the rate to reflect value then go to parity, 1-1

Member: Parity will create a level playing (trading) field for all countries. Based on each countrys assets

Member: Its been said often that ZIM bonds independent of the Dinar/Dong etc. What are they waiting for on the bonds?

MZ: Good questions. They have everyone in position and we hear lots of rumor- but nothing credible as to what they are waiting for.

Member: Mark I know you don't follow other info, but most talking about a "GO" for this coming Monday?

MZ: That would be exciting but have not had that day specifically named by my sources.

Member: What other currencies are the buzz? Iran , Indonesia

MZ: The Iranian rial may or may not be in the first basket….then there is the dong

Member: AT the RV roll out, WHAT is the current procedure for us to comply to?

Member: Get the notifications, call the number, set an appointment and follow instructions….imo

MZ: Yes, call, make an appointment and go exchange

Member: I believe that we're not exchanging until we quit using fiat dollars.

Member: I wonder- Do the banks have the new currency now and are sitting on it ?

Member: Jeff Ralm say 80% tax on all currencies?? What say you ??

MZ: I believe Jeff is wrong on this one. I am simply not hearing that from anybody.

Member: I believe we’re waiting until Jan 20 for the RV…Hope I am wrong and its sooner.

Member: Hard not to get discouraged when every month, week, and even day passes with no RV. We can’t do this forever.

Member: Movies ,,often have twists and turns ,,and surprise endings.

Member: Thanks Mark and Mr. C……Praying this is an amazing weekend for us all.

Mr. Cottrell and CBD Guru’s join the stream today. Please listen to the replay for their information and opinions.

DINAR REVALUATION