Wednesday, November 20, 2024
CAN THE POPULATION CENSUS SUCCEED IN DRAWING A NEW ECONOMIC POLICY IN IRAQ? WITH MNT GOAT COMMENTS, 21 NOV
CAN THE POPULATION CENSUS SUCCEED IN DRAWING A NEW ECONOMIC POLICY IN IRAQ?
The Iraqi government is preparing to conduct a general population census on November 20, the first census to include all regions of Iraq in nearly 4 decades.
Iraq witnessed the last general population census that included all its governorates in 1987, and although the country conducted another population census in 1997, the latter did not include the governorates of the Kurdistan Region, because they were semi-independent from Iraq during the era of the former regime.
The population census represents a vital tool for formulating economic policies based on updated facts and data that enhance the government’s ability to achieve comprehensive and balanced economic growth, while addressing economic and social challenges.
On the subject, the financial and banking specialist, Mustafa Hantoush, said in an interview with / Al-Maalouma / Agency that the Iraqi state’s funds are scattered and it does not know where to direct them or where to start the development process, indicating that “The general population census is full of positives and has no negatives.”
He comes added, “There are no higher policies or clear lines to work on, and every country that puts forward its ideas far from the needs of society, and the population census will end this chaos by clarifying a number of important matters.”
He pointed out that “Iraq has clear economic problems in work, housing and diversifying the economy, and the state cannot solve them except by conducting a general population census.”
For his part, economic expert Dhurgham Muhammad confirmed that the results of the general population census will help the government reach a realistic formula and vision during the preparation and amendment of next year’s budget schedules, while he pointed out the necessity of having a real reading of the future of oil prices for next year in order to determine a reasonable price for a barrel of oil that will be adopted by the 2025 budget.
Mohamed Ali said in a statement to Al-Maalouma Agency, “The amendments to the 2025 budget schedules will depend scientifically and realistically on the results of the general population census that will be conducted at the end of this month,” indicating that “the census Results will give the government clarity when conducting transfers and drawing up realistic development plans.”
He added that “the authorities responsible for preparing the budget must re-read it for the future of oil prices and adopt an appropriate and realistic price that is consistent with the expectations of global oil market experts, when preparing the schedules for next year, as Most indicators confirm a decrease in oil prices for security and economic reasons.”
Recently, rumors have spread on social media that the general population census will lead to the cutting of welfare salaries or the imposition of new taxes on citizens.
In this context, MP Aref Al-Hamami said in an interview with Al-Maalouma, “What is being said is inaccurate and we deny it completely and in detail through our close knowledge of the census’s progress and its great benefits in preparing the country’s strategic Plans for decades in terms of economy and development.”
He pointed out that “effective participation with the provision of accurate information will ensure the existence of comprehensive data that gives the government a vision in drawing the foundations of its future plans directly.”
The general population census will be launched on the 20th and 21st of this month in all Iraqi governorates, which will include a curfew. About 120,000 enumerators will participate in the census, while the Ministry of Planning confirmed that this census will contribute to knowing the real numbers of the population and the living conditions that will be invested for development purposes.
(The key wording in this VERY IMPORTANT census is “in all governorates”. This will be an all inclusive census to develop Iraq as an all-inclusive country and not sectarian as past federal governments did.)
TIDBIT FROM MNT GOAT, 21 NOV
Mnt Goat
...the IMF fully intends to repeg the IQD to a basket of currencies once they revalue it and turn it back on FOREX (...this is called a reinstatement...).
It will initially be a FREE FLOAT driven by market fluctuations however it will be monitored and my CBI contact has told me they will cap it at a level to control the initial massive swings, if needed.
Then over a period, the rate is expected to settle down to its nominal rate. I am told this could be about $3.85ish.
The then CBI director in 2011 Dr. Shabibi told his audience in a news media conference on the Iraqi economy that the dinar could sustain a fluctuation as high as $16 USD...
I am told that the IMF will use the cap at about $9 - $11 to prevent wild swings out of control that could potentially hurt the basket.
WILL IRAQ BE THE SAVIOR OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE REGION IF OIL PRICES FALL? WITH MNT GOAT COMMENTARY, 21 NOV
WILL IRAQ BE THE SAVIOR OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE REGION IF OIL PRICES FALL?
(Can’t possibly happen unless Iraq is globally traded on their new basket of currencies. Think about it. How can they under the current monetary conditions?)
Economic expert Safwan Qusay spoke about Iraq’s ability to confront the decline in global oil prices, pointing out that leaving the single economy and focusing on non-oil imports has become a necessity to restore the Iraqi economy.
Qusay said, “If oil prices rise by a hundred dollars, it is possible that the quantities that were voluntarily reduced by OPEC will be re-pumped, noting that “there are no less than two million two hundred thousand barrels that have been voluntarily reduced.”
He added, “It is not in the interest of oil producers to raise oil prices above $100 because that will support investments in shale oil, indicating that the producing countries are trying to control the price between $70 and $100.”
Qusay pointed out that “Iraq will be the greatest savior for the countries of the region because it has dollar reserves and has a strategic reserve in terms of oil production,”indicating that “if the government succeeds in containing the conflict and not being dragged directly into the region’s unrest, the Iraqi economy will be pulled from the war zone to the development zone.”
Qusay explained that “Iraq is able to confront the decline in oil prices, knowing that there is no decline in prices below seventy dollars because OPEC is the one that determines the quantities of production and is determined to remain within the region of 70-100 dollars per barrel.”
He added, “The surplus that accumulated during the previous period of this year, in which Iraq sold at no less than $80 per barrel, enables Iraq to confront price changes.”
He pointed out that “Iraq has begun to diversify its economy by investing in oil derivatives and stopping the burning of associated gas, in addition to stopping the import of materials that could be included in the ration card, noting that “the government has opportunities in the matter of sustainable financing through the reserves of the Central Bank or through the sale of oil shares if revenues fail to reach their goals.”
TIDBIT FROM MILITIAMAN, 21 NOV
Militia Man
If in fact we have a revaluation of the Iraqi dinar a lot of things are going to change and a lot of people need to have at least a plausible deniability...
The central bank...they openly exposed the education system, they talked about the zeros forever, they're talking about the Islamic banking law, they're talking about the Securities Law and they're talking about that with some of the largest money institutions in the world.
Britain is on big one. Same with the United States...It's exciting. I think it's powerful that we're watching this unfold.
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