DINARLAND UPDATE :WHAT BAGHDAD TV ARE SHOWING TO THE CITIZENS BY FIREFLY...

Oil war fears intensify: Iraq's budget and global markets at risk, 9 OCT

 Shafaq News/ Experts in the oil field revealed the fate of the Iraqi economy in case the Israeli war in Gaza and Lebanon expands to the rest of the region to include targeting oil facilities, as Iraqi income depends 90% on oil, making the country “among the most affected” in the event of escalation in the region.

The region where Iraq is located supplies more than 20% of the oil market's needs, and any emergency could ignite the oil market to levels that the global economy cannot withstand, resulting in a significant rise in the price of goods and commodities required by other markets, according to the economic expert, Diaa Mohsen.

The Inconvenient Outweigh The Advantages

As for Iraq, Mohsen told Shafaq News, “There are both positive and negative aspects. As for the positive aspect, any increase in oil prices means an increase in oil revenues and this may result in a large surplus in the state's general budget.”

“The negative aspect, however, may overshadow the positive one, because Iraq imports all its needs in foreign currency coming from the sale of Iraqi oil. This means that what comes in from one side goes out from the other, and this is certainly not in Iraq's interest,” Mohsen said.

“The danger may arise if the oil loading stations are subjected to air strikes by the Zionist enemy, under the pretext of the presence of Iraqi fighters fighting with Hezbollah and Hamas fighters. That would greatly affect the Iraqi economy,” he explained.

In a post on Telegram, Abu Ali al-Askari, the Kata’ib Hezbollah security official, said, “If the energy war begins, the world will lose 12 million barrels of oil per day, and as Kata'ib Hezbollah previously said, “Either everyone enjoys the resources or everyone is deprived.”

These statements come amid great tension in the region, following the recent strikes in Lebanon, the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and the recent Iranian missile attack on Israel, in a major escalation that threatens to lead to a war affecting Iraq and several countries in the Middle East.

Security and geopolitical tensions are escalating to the point of threatening the oil fields in the region, which is considered one of the richest oil-producing areas in the world and supplies about 30% of the world's oil. 

Iraq is one of the largest exporters of oil, the second largest oil exporter in OPEC, and has the fifth largest reserves in the world, according to oil and energy expert Kovind Sherwani.

Serious Repercussions For Iraq

“If instability occurs in the Gulf region, it will affect the oil supply from this region to Asian and European markets, creating a crisis that may raise oil prices above $100,” Sherwani told Shafaq News.

As for the effects, “all oil-exporting countries will be affected and Iraq will be one of the most affected for several reasons, the most significant being that the only outlet for the oil export is in the Gulf region, which has become highly vulnerable to the escalation of military operations between Iran and its allies on the one hand and the Zionist entity on the other, and some irregular factions that have also threatened oil sources,” Sherwani said.

“Oil institutions, including fields, wells, pipelines, refining and isolation facilities, and export ports, will all be affected if they are exposed to any military or missile attacks of any kind, thus creating great instability that affects all producing countries,” he explained. 

“The other influencing factor for Iraq is the high dependence of the Iraqi economy on oil by more than 90%. Oil is the main resource for the Iraqi budget and economy, and any external impact on this resource will have serious repercussions on the budget, economy, and all programs of the Iraqi state,” he said.

“Iraq had to work to activate other outlets away from areas of tension for exporting oil, such as reviving the northern export outlet through the Ceyhan port, which has been suspended since March 2023. The losses caused to the Iraqi economy by the suspension exceeded $16 billion,” he emphasized.

“As well as expediting other export outlets, for example, the Basra-Aqaba pipeline, which could have been another source of export, and perhaps also thinking about reviving the export through Syrian ports that were operational until the 1970s,” he added.

The Impact Of The War On Iraqi Oil

For his part, researcher and writer in economics and energy, Dr. Bilal Al-Khalifa, explained the impact of the war in Gaza and Lebanon on Iraqi oil saying that “the factors affecting global demand and oil prices are many, the most important of which are wars and conflicts that occur in oil production areas or areas where oil consumption is noticeable, such as Europe, China and America.”

“The ongoing war between the Zionist entity and Gaza and Lebanon also had an impact on oil prices. Fears of expanding the circle of conflict in the West Asia region has increased the oil prices by about two dollars,” Al-Khalifa told Shafaq News.

“These fears arose after the Houthis entered the war by targeting ships, including oil tankers linked to the Zionist entity or countries supporting it, such as America and Britain, and this made those tankers use the Good Hope route instead of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, which led to an increase in transportation fees,” he said.

“Fortunately for Iraq, most of its oil exports are to the east, including India with about one million barrels per day, China with about 800,000 barrels per day, as well as South Korea, and what is exported to America and the West, which passes through the Suez Canal, is about 400,000 barrels or less, and therefore it is not affected by this issue,” according to Al-Khalifa.

“As for the possibility of expanding the war, especially after the Iranian strike on the Zionist entity and the possibility of their response to that strike by bombing Iranian oil facilities and the participation of other countries in the conflict, such as America or others, according to this scenario, expectations indicate that oil prices will soar, reaching 150 dollars and at the very least, as the parties to the conflict may target Zionist oil tankers or their supporters or target export and production facilities,” he continued.

“The second scenario, which does not include hitting the oil fields, also worries consumers. That is due to the presence of tension in a large oil production area whose production rates reach 12 million barrels per day. Therefore, prices are expected to rise in this case as well, but within the limits of 10-20 dollars. As for the third scenario, which is no Zionist response, it will keep oil prices stable around the current price,” Al-Khalifa said.

“In any case, Iraq's public revenues will increase because 90% of its public revenues come from oil, and the large budget deficit of 64 trillion dinars may decrease,” Al-Khalifa concluded.

Bassem Gharibawi, a member of the Oil and Gas Committee in the Iraqi Parliament Council, ruled out any strikes targeting oil, explaining to Shafaq News that there are “interests that the United States and Europe seek to preserve, including the issue of energy and the need to keep energy supply flowing because they need it. Any disruption in the export of Iraqi oil will reflect on them, so it will be preserved.”

THEY ARE TELLING US DELETING ZEROS & ENHANCING VALUE, WE NEVER HEARD THIS BEFORE BY FIREFLY, 9 OCT

 Frank26 

 [Iraq boots-on-the-ground report] 

 FIREFLY:They are telling us deleting zeros and enhancing value.  We never heard this before.

  FRANK26:  This is extremely impressive in the way the monetary reform is coming to you faster.  

 We predicted this.  It's good to see it happening.

DINARLAND UPDATE : IRAQ BOOTS ON THE GROUND REPORT BY FIREFLY @DINARREVA...

Iraq's "roadmap" for navigating regional conflicts: Balancing diplomacy and internal security, 9 OCT

 Shafaq News/ Iraqi political observers have proposed a comprehensive "roadmap" aimed at helping Iraq avoid the repercussions of the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon, emphasizing the need for diplomatic engagement and seeking to leverage Iraq's political influence to provide viable solutions for regional crises.

Diplomatic Strategy and Domestic Control

The proposed strategy coincides with domestic initiatives, particularly the need to ensure that weapons are confined to state control. This dual approach aims to fortify Iraq's position in the region and mitigate potential risks arising from external conflicts.

These proposals come in response to warnings from Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, who recently communicated to US President Joe Biden and European Union leaders that the region is "on the brink of a dangerous slide that could drag it and the world into continuous wars."

Insights from Experts

Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, a professor of public policy at the University of Baghdad, pointed out that "Iraq can avoid being drawn into the conflicts in the Middle East by adhering to the principle of balance that previous Iraqi governments have followed. However, this balance has been disrupted under Prime Minister Al-Sudani’s government, which is associated with the so-called armed factions (Resistance factions). These groups declared from the start that this government would be a resistance government."

In an interview with Shafaq News Agency, Al-Shammari suggested that one of the key steps Al-Sudani must take is to officially renounce this label and return to the principle of balance in Iraq's foreign relations, calling for "the adoption of a highly neutral foreign policy stance, avoiding provocation of both Arab and international parties." Additionally, Al-Shammari stressed the importance of Iraq not being seen as merely a bridge or a messenger for others but as a nation capable of taking the lead on key regional issues. He argued that "Iraq currently lacks such initiative."

Al-Shammari underscored the need for the Iraqi government to engage diplomatically with Iran, Arab countries, the United States, and the European Union. "Instead of waiting for diplomats to come to them, Iraqi leaders must proactively visit these nations to convey that Iraq offers solutions to the ongoing crises, leveraging its influence and alliances to avoid the fallout from the wars in Gaza and southern Lebanon."

On the domestic front, Al-Shammari argued, "Despite the government nearing the end of its term, it must immediately begin the process of disarming armed factions. Ensuring that weapons are solely in the hands of the state should not just be a slogan, but a concrete policy to protect Iraq from further conflict."

Although the government claims it is not directly involved in the war, Iraq remains a target due to the presence of US military bases and other strategic interests. Therefore, Al-Shammari stressed the need for the government “to take security measures, especially after failed attempts to negotiate with these factions.”

In conclusion, Al-Shammari warned that Iraq has become entangled in both the political and military dimensions of the regional conflict. "The recent attacks and Israeli casualties have placed Iraq within Israel's scope of potential targets. Even if action is delayed, Iraq remains at risk due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s classification of Iraq as part of the ‘Axis of Evil.’ This designation not only implicates the armed factions or the government but the entire Iraqi political system, leaving Iraq facing significant challenges due to the failure of its current political approach."

The Risks of Armed Factions

Security expert Mukhallad Al-Darb echoed the sentiments of Al-Shammari, noting that Iraq has become a potential target for Israel following the recent attack by resistance factions on Israeli forces in the Golan Heights, which resulted in the death of two soldiers and the injury of 24 others. This attack, which was officially claimed by these factions, has effectively placed Iraq within Israel's list of potential targets.

Al-Darb emphasized to Shafaq News Agency that attacks originating from Iraqi territory targeting locations outside its borders could have serious consequences. "These could manifest soon, possibly through strikes on strategic sites within Iraq or the targeting of key figures within the resistance factions."

Al-Darb highlighted a central dilemma in Iraq; the difference between the decisions of the state and those of the armed factions. The Iraqi state is attempting to distance itself from regional conflicts and shield the country from becoming a target. On the other hand, the actions of the resistance factions directly contradict the government's efforts. “Their operations provoke Israel, undermining official Iraqi policies and making it more likely that Israel will continue targeting these factions, which are engaged in direct confrontation with the "Axis of Resistance."”

Al-Darb also drew a parallel with the situation in Lebanon, explaining that "Israel's strikes are aimed at the resistance factions, particularly Hezbollah, rather than the Lebanese state. Israel views Lebanon as a sovereign nation and avoids targeting its governmental institutions or critical infrastructure. Instead, its focus remains on Hezbollah and its affiliates." This same pattern, he argued, "is likely to be followed in Iraq, where Israeli actions will target the resistance factions without directly attacking the Iraqi state."

Navigating Complex Geopolitical Terrain

Military and security expert, Lieutenant General Dr. Jamal Al-Halbousi, believed that Al-Sudani's recent statements place Iraq in a difficult balancing act, with both variable and fixed boundaries. "This political balancing act is one of the most complex the country has faced in terms of its regional, Arab, and international positioning," he explained.

Al-Halbousi elaborated to Shafaq News Agency that "Iraq is known for its policy of non-alignment or non-involvement. Its geographic location necessitates that it acts as a meeting point for various policies. Despite the Iraqi government's reassurances to American and Western embassies that it opposes any military escalation or expansion of the ongoing conflict, the reality on the ground presents a different challenge due to the involvement of certain factions, which puts the government in a difficult position."

He added that "Israel's capability to target its adversaries creates a significant concern for Iraq. This is why Al-Sudani is working hard to navigate a middle-ground solution, steering the country towards safety through a balanced, moderate approach. He aims to control all forces, including the armed factions."

Al-Halbousi pointed out that Iraq’s geographical and political situation requires delicate maneuvering to avoid becoming entangled in broader conflicts. Al-Sudani's challenge is to maintain neutrality while managing internal and external pressures, especially from factions that may act outside the state's direct control.

Al-Sudani’s Call for Action

Iraqi Prime Minister stated in a message to US President Joe Biden and European Union nations that the region is on the brink of a dangerous abyss that could drag it and the world into ongoing wars.

In a statement, Al-Sudani said, "As we mark one year since the events on October 7, 2023, and with the continuation of the Zionist aggression against Gaza, that extended to brotherly country of Lebanon, threatening the entire region, Iraq reiterates its early position, in which it warned of the grave consequences of the occupying entity's efforts to widen the war and conflict, and the results of allowing occupying entity to persist in committing crimes amid the international community's failure to fulfill its role."

He continued, "Today, in light of the dangerous developments in the region, we send a message to all our friends, particularly U.S. President Joe Biden and the European Union: we are on the brink of a perilous situation that could plunge the region and the world into prolonged conflicts, disrupt the global economy, and severely hinder development. Our region remains the energy lifeline of the world. We should acknowledge the significant stance of French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for halting arms deliveries to the occupying entity and urged efforts to end the war. His position reflects a genuine understanding of the region's serious situation."

Al-Sudani remarked, "Our government has worked hard to shield Iraq from the effects of this escalation, and we have succeeded in doing so with your cooperation and the collaboration of all our friends worldwide. This critical phase demands that we intensify our efforts and focus on stopping the targeting of civilians, sparing the region from the horrors of a war that would affect everyone. In such a conflict, there would be no winners only destruction and devastation. We reaffirm that Iraq will continue its efforts and endeavors, alongside friendly and brotherly nations, to work together for de-escalation and to prevent the widening of the conflict, which affects the security of both the region and the world."

ABOUT THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION & MONETARY REFORM" BY FIREFLY, 9 OCT

 Frank26  

 [Iraq boots-on-the-ground report] 

  FIREFLY: Saleh on TV saying digital banking is the next stage for the digital transformation 

FRANK:  Yeah, give us the new exchange rate so it can move...If they weren't about to do that why in the world would they teach you all of this information right now?

  FIREFLY:  Yes...it's a good point.

  My bank friend even told me that all this information if for us not to miss out on the monetary reform.

FIREFLY: THEY ARE TALKING ON TV WHAT WILL HAPPEN ONCE THE CURRENCY AUCTI...