Friday, September 13, 2024
DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: IMF Article IV Consultation with Iraq: 2024 Findings and Recommendations, 14 SEPT
IMF Article IV Consultation with Iraq: 2024 Findings and Recommendations
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted its 2024 Article IV consultation with Iraq, concluding with a comprehensive report and a series of recommendations for the country's fiscal and economic policies. The consultation aimed to assess Iraq's economic health, fiscal sustainability, and the potential for long-term growth, taking into account the country's reliance on oil revenues and the challenges it faces in diversifying its economy.
Key Findings
Economic Growth and Fiscal Expansion
The IMF noted that Iraq's economic growth is projected to continue, supported by a fiscal expansion that commenced in 2023. However, the medium-term outlook is marred by increased vulnerability to oil price volatility, which has become a significant concern for the nation's fiscal stability.
Non-Oil Economy and Fiscal Adjustment
Iraq's non-oil economy, which had stalled in 2022, rebounded strongly in 2023, a trend expected to continue in 2024. Despite this, the country faces the challenge of reducing oil dependence and ensuring fiscal sustainability. This will require a significant fiscal adjustment, focusing on controlling the public wage bill and increasing non-oil tax revenues.
Private Sector Development and Labor Market Reforms
To sustain higher economic growth and absorb the rapidly expanding labor force, Iraq needs to develop its private sector. This includes implementing labor market reforms, modernizing the financial sector, restructuring state-owned banks, and reforming the pension and electricity sectors.
Recommendations
The IMF emphasized the need for sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to secure fiscal and debt sustainability. Key recommendations include:Fiscal Policy Adjustment: Reducing public expenditure, particularly the wage bill, and increasing non-oil tax revenues to address fiscal imbalances. Structural Reforms: Enhancing the private sector's role in the economy through labor market reforms, financial sector modernization, and state-owned enterprise restructuring. Diversification of the Economy: Reducing reliance on oil revenues by boosting non-oil exports and broadening the tax base.
Conclusion
The 2024 Article IV consultation underlined Iraq's economic resilience and the challenges it faces in achieving sustainable and diversified growth. The IMF's recommendations point to a path for Iraq to strengthen its fiscal position, develop its private sector, and reduce its dependence on oil revenues, all critical steps for long-term economic stability and prosperity.
LATEST FROM MILITIAMAN, 14 SEPT
Militia Man
The IMF Article IV 2024 consultation, one of the most important things was for [Iraq] to accelerate accession to the WTO.
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Summary
Iraq’s Ministerial Council of Economy is advancing economic unity between the federal government and Kurdistan, focusing on financial reforms and salary equivalency.
Highlights
- 🤝 Collaborative Meetings: Recent meetings between the federal government and Kurdistan aim for economic unity.
- 💰 Salary Equivalency: Discussions include ensuring salary parity for regional employees.
- 🔍 Budget Reforms: Emphasis on addressing financial issues like oil, energy, and border revenues.
- 📈 Private Sector Growth: Plans to enhance the private sector’s role in the economy.
- 🌍 Global Attention: Iraq’s economic strategies are gaining international interest.
- 📊 Unified Treasury Accounts: Establishing a unified treasury for better financial management.
- ⚖️ Constitutional Rights: Ensuring all citizens benefit from new economic policies aligned with constitutional rights.
Key Insights
- 🌐 Economic Integration: The meetings signify a critical step towards integrating Kurdistan’s economy with the federal framework, promoting a cohesive financial strategy.
- 💼 Private Sector Engagement: By focusing on private sector involvement, Iraq aims to diversify its economy and reduce dependency on oil revenues, fostering sustainable growth.
- 🔗 Unified Financial Framework: The establishment of a unified treasury account reflects a commitment to transparent financial management and accountability, which is vital for investor confidence.
- 📈 Revenue Streams: The focus on oil, energy, and border revenues indicates a strategic approach to harnessing Iraq’s natural resources for economic stability.
- 🤔 Constitutional Compliance: The emphasis on constitutional rights in financial discussions demonstrates a commitment to equitable governance and fair resource distribution.
- 🏛️ Political Dynamics: The support for Prime Minister Al Sudani highlights the political backing necessary to implement these reforms, ensuring stability during transitions.
- 🚀 Future Prospects: The positive atmosphere in these meetings suggests potential for significant economic progress in Iraq, attracting global attention and investment opportunities.
- https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/09/militiaman-cc-notes-highlights-12-sept.html
Washington accuses Iraqi militias of targeting US diplomatic facility in Baghdad, 14 SEPT
Washington accuses Iraqi militias of targeting US diplomatic facility in Baghdad
The United States accused Iraqi "militias" allied with Iran of targeting a US diplomatic facility in the capital, Baghdad, and vowed to respond. It called on the Iraqi government to do its part to protect diplomatic facilities. Camp Victory, which houses US soldiers, west of Baghdad, was subjected to a rocket attack on Tuesday night, in an operation that came days after Iraq announced that there was no official and fixed agreement on a date for ending the international coalition’s mission and withdrawing US forces from the country.
On Friday, the US Embassy in Baghdad said in a statement that "last Tuesday, the Diplomatic Support Complex in Baghdad, a US diplomatic facility, was attacked, but fortunately no casualties were reported," stressing that "evidence suggests that the attack was launched by Iranian-allied militias operating freely in Iraq.”
The statement indicated that "the Government of Iraq has repeatedly expressed its commitment to protecting diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel who are in the country at its invitation," renewing its call on the Iraqi government to "protect our diplomatic and coalition partner personnel and their facilities.” It added, "We reserve the right to defend ourselves and protect our personnel anywhere in the world."
The attack came hours before Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian was due to visit Iraq, and occurred despite Iraqi forces taking tight security measures in the capital. No Iraqi faction has claimed responsibility for the attack, and the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, allied with Iran, called on the government to uncover the perpetrators. “Targeting Baghdad airport at this time is carried out by suspicious hands, and its aim is to disrupt the Iranian president’s visit to Baghdad, and we call on the security services to uncover those involved,” said Hezbollah Brigades military spokesman Jaafar al-Husseini.
- For its part, the Al-Fatah Alliance, an Iraqi political alliance with parliamentary and government representation that includes a number of armed factions, considered the attack "an attempt to confuse the cards and direct blame at the resistance factions." Ali Al-Fatlawi, a member of the alliance, said on Thursday that “the factions will not be afraid to declare any action they take. The attack aims to embarrass Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and create a gap between the resistance factions and the government." He stressed that "the operation, in all its details, confirms that the resistance factions have nothing to do with it, neither directly nor indirectly."
- In February, bilateral talks between Baghdad and Washington resumed regarding the withdrawal of international coalition forces from Iraq, with the adoption of a "deliberate and gradual reduction", leading to the end of the mission of the international coalition forces to combat ISIS, according to official Iraqi statements. However, the Security and Defense Committee in the Iraqi parliament expected that the recent attack would push the US side to a new military response against some Iraqi factions, especially since the Americans exploit any opportunity and circumstance to target those factions. link
LATEST FROM JON DOWLING, 14 SEPT
JON DOWLING
So Iraq is having important meetings this weekend to pick the new speaker and announce a new digital economic system backed in assets.
If there’s breaking news over the weekend, we’ll do a special video to cover it.
Gary Gensler head of the SEC is being investigated for illegal hiring practices and other nefarious activities. His doom awaits him.
@JonDowling
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Jon Dowling
Recent developments in Iraq’s financial sector, including the implementation of a new banking system, currency diversification, and Iraq’s leadership role in international forums.
Iraq is set to chair the Group of 77 in China, marking a significant diplomatic milestone after 60 years.
A comprehensive banking system is being implemented in 40 branches, signaling readiness for international engagement.
The Central Bank is diversifying currency use, aiming to reduce reliance on the dollar.
Upcoming distribution of retirees’ salaries suggests potential changes in exchange rates.
Increased participation of Kurdish traders is contributing to a decrease in the dollar’s exchange rate.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/09/latest-from-jon-dowling-2-sept.html
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