Wednesday, July 3, 2024
THE DOLLAR IN THE PARALLEL MARKET.. AL-SUDANI’S ADVISOR PRESENTS A DIFFERENT VISION AND ECONOMIC EXPERTS: AN IMAGINARY STABILITY?
THE DOLLAR IN THE PARALLEL MARKET.. AL-SUDANI’S ADVISOR PRESENTS A DIFFERENT VISION AND ECONOMIC EXPERTS: AN IMAGINARY STABILITY?
The advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister disagreed with what four economic experts said regarding the “stability” of the US dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar, stressing that “the stability of the dollar is real and solid and not imaginary as some believe.“
However, the economic experts said that the stability is “not reassuring,” and what is happening now is a decrease in the dollar’s volatility, while stability will occur when the dollar returns to the official price of the Central Bank.
The Prime Minister’s Advisor for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, says, “The exchange rate of the dollar to the dinar in the parallel market today in our country does not constitute any relative importance in influencing the stability of the general price level, which has become stable in its components and trends due to the influence of the official exchange rate factor currently dominating the financing of foreign trade (imports), amounting to 1,220 dinars per dollar. It is a stable trend for the exchange rate and the stable external value of the dinar revolves around it, which is embodied by the state of stability in the relative prices of goods and services to a large extent.”
Saleh added to Shafaq News Agency, “Based on the above, and in light of the strength of the foreign reserves supporting the Iraqi dinar, whose value as liquid foreign assets exceeds $100 billion, which is the highest in the history of Iraq in the development of its international reserves, the official exchange market, as a general trend, will remain dominant in containing any colored noise or ambiguous information that affects the parallel exchange market due to urgent international or regional political events here and there.”
He explains, “After the decline of the dollarization phenomenon in domestic transactions, especially in contracts, obligations and payments within the country since last year, legally, the parallel exchange market has become such that its general effects today only from a narrow economic scope of prohibited transactions practiced by informal markets and at a rate of 10 percent of the total supply and demand transactions for the currency.”
Saleh concluded by saying, “Accordingly, the stability of the exchange rate of the dinar to the dollar that the country is witnessing, even in the secondary markets above, is a real and solid stability and not an illusion as some believe. Rather, it is derived from the strength of the impact of the price and quantity factors of the monetary and fiscal policies and their integration in imposing overall price stability in the country and containing the inflationary expectations that were caused by the forces of the parallel exchange market during the past years.”
But the economic researcher, Ali Abdul-Kazem, explained that “the stability of the dollar occurs when the dollar returns to the official price of the Central Bank, but until now its price is more than 15 points above the official price in the budget, so there is no stability, but the fluctuation in the parallel market is somewhat stable as a result of several things, including the increase in the number of dollars that were for pilgrims.”
Abdul-Kazem added to Shafaq News Agency, “The budget has not been launched yet and its implementation began this month, and this also has an impact, as well as increasing the Central Bank’s sales of dollars, and the recession witnessed by the markets reduces import operations, and all these reasons and others have helped to keep the dollar low in the current markets, as for the stabilization process, when the dollar reaches the official price, then it can be said that the dollar price has stabilized between the parallel and official.”
The economic expert, Karim Al-Helou, agrees with what Ali Abdul-Kazem said regarding the instability of the dollar, “but these are temporary cases, because the issue of the dollar in Iraq is supply and demand. When bank transfers abroad increase without obstacles and routine, the demand for the dollar decreases, which leads to its decline. When there are obstacles in Iraqi banks, especially with Iran, from which Iraq imports 13 billion dollars annually, we need hard currency to deliver it to Iran, or some places where a platform has not been opened, such as Iran and others, these require going to the market.”
Al-Halou explained to Shafaq News Agency, “This stability is temporary and lasts for days, and there are mafias specializing in the dollar that have huge amounts of dollars that they put down in the market, which leads to a decrease in its price, and then they buy it again and the supply decreases, which leads to demand for it and its price rises again.”
(A little recent past history and opinions of the rates by the other 4 economists referenced above by Saleh):
“Therefore, all these factors lead the dollar to calm and stability. It previously fell to 144, but then rose again to 148, and the difference with the official 1320 is more than 15 points. Therefore, this is not stability. Rather, the correct stability is as it was before, when it was 1120 in the Central Bank and 1121 abroad.
(Mnt Goat – this is better than 1166 under Dr Shabibi even…just saying… 😊)
This situation continued for years, and strategic projects were set at 1121 for the dollar. However, after former Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi raised the dollar price against the dinar, the current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, came and restored it, but the fluctuation continued, due to the presence of mafias, a political lobby, and banks affiliated with parties that have a relationship with the dollar file.”
1.Al-Halou concluded his speech by saying, “Therefore, the stability is not reassuring and not natural. Rather, it is merely periods for certain cases related to imports, travel, and all factors related to the exit of the dollar from Iraq.”
2. This is what the economic expert, Diaa Mohsen, also went to, who explained that “what is rumored about the stability of the US dollar exchange rate in the local market is a lie that some of those who ride the government ship are trying to promote, because the citizen knows that when the Prime Minister presented his government program to the Iraqi Council of Representatives, one of his priorities was to reduce the dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar, and many pages were created to promote this topic, but to no avail,” he said.
3.Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, Mohsen attributed the rise in the US dollar exchange rate in the local market to a number of reasons that the Central Bank of Iraq could not address. Either because it knows these reasons (and this is a disaster) but it cannot confront those responsible for this rise, or because it does not know these reasons (and this disaster is greater than the previous one) because the Central Bank of Iraq is entrusted with the money of the Iraqi people and not following up on this money and its spending doors is a breach of trust, he said.
He added, “Therefore, the talk about the stability of the US dollar in the local market is not true, because everyone knows that the decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar occurred during the Eid al-Adha holiday, and there is a relatively long holiday. In addition to that, Iraqi traders have begun to use other methods than smuggling the dollar out of Iraq, which is represented by buying gold and smuggling it.”
He continued, “In general, we do not believe that the monetary authority, with its confusion in taking measures, can control the exchange rate of the US dollar, nor do the executive authority’s measures have the ability to limit currency smuggling operations, whether foreign currency or gold. As for prices, they will not exceed 1,500 dinars per dollar and will not fall below 1,450 dinars per dollar.”
4. While the economic expert, Abdul Rahman Al-Shaikhli, believes that “the fluctuation in the dollar price is a natural matter, and it continues from time to time as a result of being affected by the smallest details, including the departure and return of pilgrims, so the price will remain between 1450 and 1500 dinars continuously, and the fluctuation between these two numbers is a natural thing.”
Al-Shaikhli pointed out during his interview with Shafaq News Agency, “There are some residents abroad who control the currency by issuing and withdrawing the dollar when anything happens inside Iraq, taking advantage of opportunities to manipulate its price. This situation exists in all countries of the world and may be very clear in Iraq because we have not witnessed this experience before, but this remains a natural issue, and we should not worry about it, but if it continues for a long time, it can then be considered an abnormal event.”
LATEST FROM CLARE, 3 JULY
Clare
Article: "Dinar Explainer 1: Why Iraq has Two Exchange Rates"
Quote: "On a recent webinar organized by the Iraq Britain Business Council (IBBC), Professor Frank Gunter of Lehigh University explained the causes and effects of Iraq's dual exchange rate..."
1. Excessive Demand for US Dollars Internationally:... 2. Internal Demand for Dollars... 3. De-Dollarization Efforts by the New York Fed: The New York Federal Reserve has restricted dollar transfers to reduce dollar flows to Iran and Syria. They have also excluded over two dozen Iraqi banks from transactions, which has increased the complexity and demand for dollars in Iraq.
--Clare
Article: " The President of the Republic approves a number of laws, including the 2024 budget schedules"
Quote: “The President of the Republic, Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid, ratified a number of draft laws, which are the schedules of the Federal General Budget Law for the year 2024...The laws were sent after their approval by the President of the Republic for publication in the Iraqi newspaper Al-Waqae' to enter into force."
Article: "Parliamentary law challenges the '2024 budget tables' and the federal government is waiting for an answer within 15 days”
Quote: "the appeal was submitted “on the pretext that the numbers mentioned in the budget items will change, and thus this is considered a change to the law and requires the implementation of a new law with a first and Second reading, and final approval.”
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/06/analysis-of-iraq-news-by-clare-28-june.html
IMPORTANT IRAQ NEWS: THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC APPROVES THE 2024 BUDGET SCHEDULES BY MNT GOAT
THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC APPROVES THE 2024 BUDGET SCHEDULES
Today, Thursday, President Abdul Latif Rashid ratified several laws, including the 2024 budget schedules.
The Presidency of the Republic stated in a statement received by {Al-Furat News}, that “The President of the Republic, Abdul Latif Rashid, ratified a number of draft laws, which are the schedules of the Federal Budget Law for the year 2024, the first amendment to the law against prostitution and homosexuality, and the law extending the work of the Independent High Electoral Commission.” And the first amendment law to the law regulating the rent of agricultural lands and ownership of the right to dispose of them for agricultural and veterinary graduates.”
She added, “The laws were sent after their approval by the President of the Republic for publication in the Iraqi newspaper Al-Waqa’i to enter into force.”
The Presidency of the Republic confirmed that it is “moving forward in supporting legislation and laws that are in the interest of the country and citizens, by approving the laws approved by the House of Representatives, as well as by submitting draft laws by the Presidency of the Republic to the House of Representatives for the purpose of discussing and approving them.”
(Mnt Goat – Oh… but you thought this was going to get you the RV just as soon as they published the budget schedules? The lies fooled you again…. lol..lol..lol.. You thought the new rate was in the budget? Really? I have a bridge for sale too it’s called the Brooklyn Bridge…lol..lol..lol.. To all you TNT idiots…)
LATEST FROM CBI CONTACT INTEL BY MNT GOAT, 3 JULY
LATEST FROM CBI CONTACT INTEL
In my last Newsletter I talked about my conversation with my CBI contact at that time. What did she tell me then?
She told me basically the US are bastards. Opps… I wasn’t supposed to tell you that. But I owe you the TRUTH! I am no longer going to hold back. My contact told me the same. This is now ridiculous. The US Treasury knows damn well to kickoff the 3rd phase of the strategic plan was to bring the dinar back to FOREX.
They were in meetings held to talk about this 3rd stage to the overall plan.
This manipulation is really sad. A decade ago, I could hardly make these claims.
But come ‘on folks it has been 20 years already and the entire Europe was rebuilt in a shorter timespan post WW2.
But who cares about Iraq, they say. Yes, as long as the oil if flowing, they are taking their corrupt share, the US politicians don’t give a shit about the people of Iraq. Shame, shame, shame on them. Yes, this means democrats and republicans too.
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