Friday, June 28, 2024
Dinar Explainer 1: Why Iraq has Two Exchange Rates, 28 JUNE
Dinar Explainer 1: Why Iraq has Two Exchange Rates
By John Lee.
On a recent webinar organised by the Iraq Britain Business Council (IBBC), Professor Frank Gunter of Lehigh University explained the causes and effects of Iraq's dual exchange rate.
The three reasons why Iraq has two exchange rates are:
Excessive Demand for US Dollars Internationally :
There is a high demand for US dollars in countries like Iran and Syria, where local currencies have significantly devalued. Entities in these countries are desperate to obtain dollars, which are accepted everywhere and difficult to trace.
The excessive demand for US dollars internationally is driven by several factors:
Currency Devaluation in Neighboring Countries:
The Iranian rial has lost 75% of its value due to sanctions from the US and other nations.
The Syrian pound has lost 99% of its value primarily due to the ongoing civil war.
These significant devaluations have led entities in Iran and Syria to seek more stable currencies like the US dollar.
Preference for Physical Dollars:
There is a particular demand for physical US dollars (paper currency) rather than electronic funds transfers (EFTs). Physical dollars are preferred because they are accepted everywhere and are impossible to trace, making them more desirable for transactions that may need to avoid scrutiny.
Cheaper Source of Dollars in Iraq:
Due to these devaluations and economic instability, Iran and Syria find it more feasible to obtain dollars from Iraq. The Iraqi market offers a cheaper source of dollars, requiring fewer real resources compared to other regions.
These factors collectively create a significant international demand for US dollars, which in turn impacts Iraq's exchange rate dynamics by increasing the pressure on its currency system and contributing to the existence of dual exchange rates.
Internal Demand for Dollars:
Within Iraq, the dollar has dominated the dinar both as a medium of exchange and as a store of value. Although recent regulatory changes have reduced this dominance, the demand for dollars remains strong.
The internal demand for dollars in Iraq is driven by several key factors highlighted in the text:
Dominance of the Dollar:
Historically, the US dollar has dominated the Iraqi dinar both as a medium of exchange and as a store of value. This dominance means that people prefer to use and hold dollars over the local currency, contributing to the internal demand for dollars.
Regulatory Changes:
Although there have been recent regulatory changes aimed at reducing the dominance of the dollar, the demand remains strong. These changes have not been sufficient to shift the preference from dollars to dinars significantly.
Economic Practices:
Iraq's economy is still very much a cash economy. The Central Bank of Iraq estimated that there were 90 trillion dinars outside financial intermediaries, highlighting the extensive use of cash. This reliance on cash further underscores the preference for a stable currency like the dollar.
Banking System Challenges:
The banking system in Iraq is underdeveloped. The state-owned banks are not private sector-oriented, with major banks like Rafidain and Rasheed facing difficulties. Additionally, Iraq is severely under-banked, with only four bank branches and five ATMs per 100,000 Iraqis, compared to the Middle East and Northern Africa average of 14 branches and 37 ATMs.
The lack of a universal core banking system, which makes it difficult to withdraw funds from a different branch than where the deposit was made, contributes to the preference for holding dollars.
Insecurity of Deposits:
The perception that deposits have become more insecure has increased the demand for dollars. For instance, the suspension of dollar withdrawals starting January 1, 2024, has likely exacerbated concerns about the security and accessibility of funds, driving people to prefer holding dollars.
These factors collectively create a strong internal demand for dollars in Iraq, complicating efforts to manage the exchange rate and stabilize the economy.
De-Dollarization Efforts by the New York Fed:
The New York Federal Reserve has restricted dollar transfers to reduce dollar flows to Iran and Syria. They have also excluded over two dozen Iraqi banks from transactions, which has increased the complexity and demand for dollars in Iraq.
The de-dollarization efforts by the New York Federal Reserve (New York Fed) are part of a broader strategy to control the flow of US dollars, particularly to countries under sanctions such as Iran and Syria. Here are the key points from the text:
Restriction on Dollar Transfers:
The New York Fed has restricted the transfer of physical dollars to Iraq. Previously, both electronic dollars (via electronic funds transfer, or EFT) and paper dollars could be sent to Iraq. Now, the New York Fed primarily allows only electronic transfers while restricting the shipment of actual paper dollars.
Exclusion of Iraqi Banks:
Over two dozen Iraqi banks have been excluded from doing transactions with the New York Fed. The New York Fed will not transfer funds to these banks or respect their transactions. This exclusion is part of the effort to control the flow of dollars and reduce the likelihood that they will end up in countries like Iran and Syria.
Objective of De-Dollarization:
The primary goal of these restrictions is to reduce dollar flows to Iran and Syria. By limiting access to physical dollars and restricting certain banks, the New York Fed aims to make it more difficult for these countries to obtain US dollars, which are in high demand due to the devaluation of their own currencies and economic sanctions.
Impact on Iraq:
The de-dollarization efforts have significant implications for Iraq. The restriction on physical dollar transfers and the exclusion of certain banks have added to the complexity and demand for dollars within Iraq. These measures are part of the broader challenge facing the Iraqi government as it tries to manage its dual exchange rates and stabilize its economy.
These efforts by the New York Fed are part of a strategic initiative to use financial controls as a means of exerting economic pressure on countries like Iran and Syria, while also attempting to mitigate the impact on the Iraqi economy.
You can read more on the history and consequences of the dinar exchange rate here.
"ABOUT THE NEW BANKING MECHANISM & THE NEW EXCHANGE RATE FOR THE IQD" BY GOLDILOCKS, 28 JUNE
GOLDILOCKS
"Cancellation of Paragraph ( 5 / d ) of the instructions and standards for circulation and replacement of banknotes, and the counting and sorting mechanisms."
A banknote counter is a device designed to accurately count and check on the quantity of banknotes. A counter has several sensors on it to accurately analyze the banknote.
A banknote counter also has the ability to sort banknotes into batches, check for damaged, and counterfeit notes.
Iraq is beginning to utilize more strict methods of counting and securing their money. It will give their community and broader community more confidence in the Dinar.
This will give Iraq more accurate measurements of the money supply, and it will give them the opportunity to enforce laws surrounding the punishment of illegal production of the Iraqi Dinar.
As Iraq approaches a new exchange rate for the Iraqi dinar, these new banking mechanisms will give them the opportunity to reset the direction of how their money is being used locally and abroad.
Don't be surprised if other currencies are done the same way when we go to exchange them. Part of a reset on currency valuations is dependent on accurate information to do so.
© Goldilocks
https://www.hyundaimib.com/tech-guide/
https://cbi.iq/news/view/2608
“National Bank violations” place the governor of the Central Bank before parliamentary accountability, 28 JUNE
“National Bank violations” place the governor of the Central Bank before parliamentary accountability
MP Alia Nassif directed a parliamentary question to the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq regarding the preparation of non-Iraqi employees and managers and their salaries working in the National Bank.
She called in a tweet she published on her account on the X platform, which the “Iraq Observer” agency viewed, which stated: Based on Article 61/Seventh of the Constitution and Article 29 of the Law of the Council of Representatives and its formations and Articles “50, 51, 53” of the internal regulations of the Council of Representatives, to inform Parliament of the legal basis for the National Bank’s violation of Iraqi laws, the Central Bank, the Banking Law and the instructions of the Central Bank.
She pointed out the reasons for not declaring the actual salaries of the National Bank employees to the Social Security Department, especially non-Iraqis, due to the receipt of information about tax evasion and informing Parliament of the procedures.
Earlier, Representative for the State of Law, Alia Nassif, revealed that the National Bank of Iraq controls 33% of dollar sales in Iraq, confirming that this bank is 77% owned by non-Iraqis.
Nassif said in a tweet on the #Iraq."
Nassif added: “In 2023, this bank bought $10.8 billion from the currency sales window. The volume of dollars sold from the currency sales window for the year 2023 amounted to $33.4 billion, according to data from the Central Bank of Iraq. The National Bank’s dollar purchase rate is 33% of the total sales of the foreign currency window.”
Nassif asked: “Who is responsible for this financial disaster?”
The book addressed to the governor link
TNT CALL, 28 JUNE
TNT call
Iraq is ready to party on Sunday. The lower denomination dinars are in the ATMs. Banks have been notified that the dinar is exchangeable once they get the go, which they are expecting between this evening and Sunday morning.
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TNT
Wed. 26 June 2024 TNT Tony
TNT Tony said window is Thursday after 5 thru Sunday. He also said it could go in 5 minutes. FYI, If you are in the US, you should be able to get the contract rate IF YOU ASK. So ask. ($28.50)
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Waiting on the go. There is agreement amongst them re: when it will be announced and what they are waiting on.
Window: 5 min from now until Sunday morning.
Sunday is a celebration day in Iraq.
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TNT- They are waiting for the trigger, there is a trigger. He won’t tell us what that is.
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TNT- Now saying Thursday 5pm EST to Sunday morning for live rate window.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/06/waiting-on-go-by-tony-tnt-from.html
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