Awake-in-3D: US Trade Upgrade Promises Stronger Exchange Rate for VND, 20 MAY

 Awake-in-3D: US Trade Upgrade Promises Stronger Exchange Rate for VND

VND Update: U.S. Trade Upgrade Promises Stronger Exchange Rate

On May 18, 2024
By Awake-In-3D

New Market Economy Status Could Transform Economic and Trade Relations

In This Article:

1. Overview of the U.S. Department of Commerce Review
2. Advocates’ Arguments for Vietnam’s Market Economy Status
3. Concerns from U.S. Industries
4. Broader Economic and Geopolitical Implications

The United States is considering a significant economic move for upgrading Vietnam from a non-market economy (NME) to a market economy.

This change seeks to end high anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Vietnamese imports, while boosting Vietnam’s economy and its struggling VND currency exchange rate with the US Dollar.

Overview of the U.S. Department of Commerce Review

The U.S. Department of Commerce is set to complete its review of Vietnam’s economic status by late July 2024.

Currently, Vietnam is among 12 countries designated as NMEs, subjecting its goods to higher duties. Proponents argue that Vietnam has made substantial progress in currency convertibility, labor rights, and openness to foreign investment, qualifying it for an upgrade.

Advocates’ Arguments for Vietnam’s Market Economy Status

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) and other proponents highlight several key improvements.

They point to enhanced currency convertibility, improved labor rights, and increased openness to foreign investments.

Major investors such as Samsung, Intel, and Nike have significantly contributed to Vietnam’s economic landscape, demonstrating confidence in its market reforms.

Concerns from U.S. Industries

Opponents, including U.S. steelmakers and agricultural groups like the Southern Shrimp Alliance, express concerns about potential negative impacts on American industries.

They argue that ongoing state intervention and unfair trade practices in Vietnam could harm U.S. businesses.

The decision also faces scrutiny from U.S. domestic politics, particularly in swing states like Pennsylvania, where the impact on local industries is a critical consideration.

Broader Economic and Geopolitical Implications

Changing Vietnam’s status holds broader implications beyond trade.

Economically, it would strengthen the VND and enhance Vietnam’s position in the global market. Geopolitically, it could counterbalance China’s influence in the region, fostering closer U.S.-Vietnam economic relations.

The potential upgrade also reflects Vietnam’s infrastructural and business reforms, offering growth prospects for U.S. firms and increasing foreign direct investment, which rose to $3.5 billion in 2022.

The Bottom Line

The potential upgrade of Vietnam’s economic status by the U.S. Department of Commerce could significantly impact trade relations and strengthen the Vietnamese dong.

The decision, expected by late July 2024, will play a crucial role in shaping the future of U.S.-Vietnam economic and geopolitical dynamics.

Supporting article: Vietnam Briefing MAY 9th 2024

=======================================

© GCR Real-Time News

"IRAQ'S DECISION TO DELAY LOWER DENOMINATION NOTES IN CURRENCY AND EXCHA...

ICC seeks arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas leader Sinwar, 20 MAY

The chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Court has said today he is seeking 

arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav 

Gallant - as well as three Hamas leaders.

In an interview on Monday, Karim Khan said the warrants are for war crimes and crimes 

against humanity over the terror group's deadly October 7 attack and Israel's subsequent 

war in the Gaza Strip.

He said warrants were being sought for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Diab 

Ibrahim al-Masri (aka Mohammed Deif), the leader of the Al Qassem Brigades - 

Hamas' military wing, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' political leader.

Khan told CNN that the charges against the trio include 'extermination, murder, taking of 

hostages, rape and sexual assault in detention.'

'The world was shocked on the 7th of October when people were ripped from their 

bedrooms, from their homes, from the different kibbutzim in Israel,' Khan told CNN host 

Christiane Amanpour, adding that 'people have suffered enormously.' 

In a separate statement, he said that he saw for himself 'the devastating scenes of these 

attacks and the profound impact of the unconscionable crimes charged in the applications

filed today. 

'Speaking with survivors, I heard how the love within a family, the deepest bonds between 

a parent and a child, were contorted to inflict unfathomable pain through calculated 

cruelty and extreme callousness. These acts demand accountability.' 

He also said the ICC was applying for warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant for their part in 

the assault on the Gaza strip that continues today.

'We have applied for warrants – of course the judges must determine whether or not to 

issue them, but we have applied today,' he told Amanpour.

He said the charges against Netanyahu and Gallant include 'crimes of causing 

extermination, causing starvation as a method of war including the denial of humanitarian 

relief supplies, deliberately targeting civilians in conflict.'

Speaking of the Israeli actions, Khan said in a statement that 'the effects of the use of 

starvation as a method of warfare, together with other attacks and collective punishment 

against the civilian population of Gaza are acute, visible and widely known. 

'They include malnutrition, dehydration, profound suffering and an increasing number of 

deaths among the Palestinian population, including babies, other children, and women,' he 

added.

The United Nations and other aid agencies have repeatedly accused Israel of hindering aid

deliveries throughout the war. Israel denies this, saying there are no restrictions on aid 

entering Gaza and accusing the UN of failing to distribute aid. 

The UN says aid workers have repeatedly come under Israeli fire, and also says ongoing 

fighting and a security vacuum have impeded deliveries. 

Israel launched its war in response to an October 7 cross-border attack by Hamas that 

killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 250 others hostage. 

The Israeli offensive has killed around 35,000 Palestinians, at least half of them women 

and children, according to the latest estimates by Gaza health officials.

The Israeli offensive has also triggered a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, displacing roughly 

80 percent of the population and leaving hundreds of thousands of people on the brink of 

starvation, according to UN officials. 

The prosecutor must request the warrants from a pre-trial panel of three judges, who take 

on average two months to consider the evidence and determine if the proceedings can 

move forward.

Israel is not a member of the court, and even if the arrest warrants are issued, Netanyahu 

and Gallant do not face any immediate risk of prosecution.

But Khan's announcement deepens Israel's isolation as it presses ahead with its war, and 

the threat of arrest could make it difficult for the Israeli leaders to travel abroad.

Both Sinwar and Deif are believed to be hiding in Gaza as Israel tries to hunt them down. 

But Haniyeh, the supreme leader of the Islamic militant group, is based in Qatar and 

frequently travels across the region.

There was no immediate comment from either side when approached by the Associated 

Press, the news agency reported.

----

Awake-in-3D: How Gold Could RV to $27,374 against the Fiat Dollar, 20 MAY

 Awake-in-3D: How Gold Could RV to $27,374 against the Fiat Dollar

How Gold Could RV To $27,374 Against The Fiat Dollar

On May 19, 2024
By Awake-In-3D

Understanding the Revaluation of Gold in the Face of Fiat Currency Debt Implosion and Gold-Backing the US Dollar

In This Article:

• Gold’s Path to $27,000
• The Underlying Analysis: Why Gold Could Surge
• Historical Precedents and Lessons
• The Supply and Demand Dynamics
• Doing the Math

The intrinsic value of gold is set to revalue significantly against the fiat currency system, particularly the US Dollar.

As global economic uncertainties rise, gold’s stability offers the only safe haven.

Here’s why one globally recognized financial expert believes that gold would exceed $27,000 per ounce in the near future.

Gold’s Path to $27,000

A rather straight forward and simple analysis now indicates that gold might surpass $27,000.

This forecast isn’t speculative but grounded in historical data and economic models .

While no forecast guarantees certainty, the tools and methodologies applied here have proven accurate across various contexts.

The Underlying Analysis: Why Gold Could Surge

The analysis starts with a crucial question: What’s the implied non-deflationary price of gold under a new gold standard?

Central bankers currently control fiat currencies and have little interest in a gold standard. However, should confidence in fiat currencies collapse due to factors like excessive money creation, Bitcoin competition, or a new financial crisis, a return to gold will become necessary.

Under such a scenario, determining the proper price for gold becomes essential to maintain economic equilibrium.

Historical Precedents and Lessons

Historical events provide valuable lessons. The UK’s return to the gold standard at an unrealistic price in 1925 led to an early entry into the Great Depression.

Conversely, the US devalued the dollar against gold in 1933, spurring commodity price rises and aiding economic recovery.

The key policy goal is to find the “just right” price to balance gold and dollars, something the US is well-positioned to achieve with its substantial gold reserves.

The Supply and Demand Dynamics

The supply side of gold shows a significant decline in new mining output.

Despite rising gold prices, US mine production has decreased by 28% over seven years.

This trend suggests that while output could potentially expand, current conditions support higher prices.

On the demand side, central banks, ETFs, hedge funds, and individual purchases drive demand. Notably, central bank gold demand has surged by 1,000% from 2010 to 2022, with no signs of slowing down in 2024.

This scenario of flat supply and rising demand supports the forecast of higher gold prices.

The Bottom Line

The revaluation of gold against the US Dollar is not just a possibility but a plausible outcome based on rigorous analysis.

As economic conditions fluctuate and confidence in fiat currencies potentially wanes, gold stands to gain significantly.

The recent discussion that BRICS is creating a new currency based on 40% gold-backing, the math for the same gold-backing of the US Dollar.

Doing the math for gold reaching $27,374 per ounce

1. Current M1 Money Supply: The U.S. M1 money supply today is $17.9 trillion.
2. Gold Backing Ratio: Assume a 40% gold backing for the money supply (historical precedent from 1913–1946).
3. Gold Required for 40% Coverage: Calculate 40% of $17.9 trillion, which equals $7.16 trillion.
4. Total U.S. Gold Reserves: The U.S. Treasury holds 261.5 million troy ounces of gold.
5. Implied Gold Price Calculation: Divide the required gold value by the total gold reserves: $7.16 trillion divided by 261.5 million troy ounces equals approximately $27,374 per troy ounce.

Thus, based on these calculations, the implied non-deflationary equilibrium price of gold under a new gold standard could exceed $27,000 per ounce.

Supporting article: https://dailyreckoning.com/27000-gold/

© GCR Real-Time News

Iraqi Dinar update for 05/19/24 - To float or not to float could mean hi...BY PIMPY

Iran's President Raisi killed in helicopter crash, 20 MAY

Body of President Raisi to be moved to city of Mashhad on Tuesday

From CNN’s Adam Pourahmadi

The body of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the other victims of Sunday's helicopter crash will be transferred on Tuesday from Tabriz to the northeastern city of Mashhad, where Raisi was born, according to Fars news. 

A large public ceremony is scheduled to take place at a prayer hall in Tabriz at 4 p.m. local time on Monday, Fars news reported. 

At 9 a.m. local time on Tuesday, a large procession will accompany the bodies of Raisi and the other victims from Tabriz Martyr's Square to the city's airport. From there, the bodies will be moved to Mashhad, according to Fars. 

Raisi was born in Mashhad in 1960. He ran the powerful charity known as Astan-e Quds-e Razavi, which manages the huge Imam Reza shrine, a major Islamic holy site in the city.min ago

Iran's president has died. Here's what we know about what comes next

From CNN Staff 

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi at Saadabad Cultural & Historical Complex in Tehran, Iran, on April 29, 2023. Sakineh Salimi/Borna News/Aksonline ATPImages/Getty Images

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi was confirmed dead by state media on Monday morning, after a helicopter he was traveling in alongside Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and seven others crashed in foggy conditions in the country's remote northwest on Sunday. 

Here's what to know now: 

Acting president: In the wake of Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has been appointed as acting president.

Acting foreign minister:  Ali Bagheri Kani, who has led Iranian delegations through indirect negotiations with the United States over nuclear issues and prisoner exchanges, has been appointed acting foreign minister after the death of Amir-Abdollahian, state news agency IRNA reported.

New elections: The Iranian constitution mandates that the three heads of the branches of government, including the vice president, speaker of the parliament, and head of the judiciary, must arrange for an election and elect a new leader within 50 days of assuming the role of acting President. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a message to state news agencies that Mokhber was responsible for organizing elections for a new president within that time. 

Public mourning: Ayatollah Khamenei has announced five days of public mourning after the crash, and expressed his condolences. All cultural and arts activities have been canceled in Iran for the next seven days. 

Global reaction: The loss of Raisi — a conservative hardliner and protege of Ayatollah Khamenei — is expected to sow further uncertainty in a country already buckling under significant economic and political strain, with tensions with nearby Israel at a dangerous high. His death has already triggered international reaction with  Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, India and the UAE leader expressing their condolences for his death. Lebanon has declared three days of mourning. 

Militias respond: Iran-backed militant groups Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah have sent condolences to Tehran over the death of Raisi. 

3 hr 19 min ago

Iran cancels all cultural and arts activities for seven days

From Negar Mahmoodi

All cultural and arts activities in Iran will be suspended for seven days following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, the Ministry of Culture announced on Monday.

Raisi died in a helicopter crash at age 63. 

The country’s foreign minister and seven others were also killed after the crash in a remote, mountainous area of Iran’s northwest.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/raisi-iran-president-helicopter-crash-05-20-24/index.html

"RV UPDATE" BY MARKZ, 20 MAY

 MARKZ

Fri. 17 May 2024 MarkZ: “On May 22nd, (This is from the IRS but other government agencies are also doing thi) they will be conducting emergency alert tests nationwide to all their employees on text messaging, email and laptop notifications. So they are prepared for May 22nd.

MZ From a member: “Now in one of the top banks here in the country – they are very clued in on currencies. When they found out the amount of the currency they had they said “We need to sit down with you- but we can’t sit down with you until the  22nd. Our key people for wealth management are in training for foreign currencies and exchanges – but we want to sit down with as soon as they back from training.”

MZ: Now this doesn’t mean the RV will happen on the 22nd. But the bank can’t talk to them now even though they want to talk to them….until May 22nd. So- the top wealth management at a big bank with a big wealth management arm-and they get back from foreign currency exchange training on the 22nd –This is a great “tell.”