PRESERVING FOREIGN RESERVES. AN IRAQI ACADEMIC STUDY ANSWERS THE QUESTION “THE STABILITY OF THE IRAQI DINAR AGAINST THE DOLLAR”
(This article is a history less of what happened in the past 4 years, even covers the Covid pandemic time period. But we want to know where the dinar is right now. Go to the next article for this information.)
Shafaq News / At a time when the price of the dollar is still fluctuating between high and low, and forcing the market to live in a state of confusion, because the hard currency constitutes an important tool in Iraqi trade, being a trade that depends on imports in most of the products in the local market, a researcher whose master’s thesis was discussed, at the Faculty of Administration and Economics at the University of Tikrit, on Monday, some possible solutions to hold and control the price of the dollar, as his message came about the role of the bank The central bank and the window of selling the currency and their role in the stability of the dinar against the dollar and the importance of maintaining foreign currency reserves.
Ahmed researcher Abdullah Okil told Shafaq News Agency that “the study aims to know and measure the extent of the impact of some of the Central Bank’s tools in achieving the stability of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar during the period (2004-2022) in order to know the places of imbalance and negatives that hinder the stability of the value of the local currency according to what suits the nature of the Iraqi economy, as the goal of maintaining the value of the local currency was the main goal of the bank in order to maintain the level of prices mainly related to the exchange level local dinar against the US dollar.”
He added that “the variables of the study were analyzed and measured according to the program (Eviews 13), and it was found that there is a positive relationship between some of the Central Bank’s tools as independent variables and the official and parallel exchange rate as dependent variables in the short term, with some negative and positive correlations for some variables in the long term, as it was noted that some tools were ineffective in influencing the currency exchange rate, such as the legal reserve, the rediscount rate and open market operations, but the impact of some of them was limited to inflation.”
He pointed out that “while the impact of the interest rate and the window was positive on the value of the local currency as a result of its reduction to the nominal exchange rate, and this indicates the ability of the Central Bank to influence the stability of the exchange rate of the local currency against foreign currency, especially through the window of sale of currency throughout the study period, except for some last years of the study period, as the nominal exchange rate returned to rise, as well as the case in the parallel market by a decision of the monetary authority represented by the Central Bank, for the purpose of facing public expenditures. And facing the repercussions of the global health crisis related to the Corona epidemic and the accompanying decline in oil prices, which is the main source of the US dollar due to the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy.”
He continued: “It was also noted that the gap between the official exchange rate and its counterpart in the parallel market increased due to the increase in demand for foreign currency, and the study made a number of recommendations, the most important of which is to continue to work in the window without overusing foreign reserves and diversifying sources of obtaining foreign currency by advancing development and activating the real sector, industry and agriculture, in order to achieve a reduction in imports, which reduces currency depletion, in addition to tightening control measures to prevent the smuggling of foreign currency and works that affect the supply of it, which contributes to to stabilize the exchange rate of the local currency.”
He stressed that “continuing to work in the window of selling currency without wasting foreign reserves, and diversifying the sources of obtaining foreign currency so that the exchange rate does not remain hostage to oil prices, as it is almost the only source of obtaining foreign currency.”
He pointed out that “advancing development in Iraq, activating the real sector, activating industry and agriculture to reduce imports to relieve pressure on foreign reserves of the dollar, keeping the Central Bank away from political pressures and granting it the necessary powers to deal with fluctuations in the economic situation, including exchange rate fluctuations, and tightening control measures to prevent the smuggling of foreign currency abroad so as not to affect the supply of foreign currency, and thus the value of the local currency.”