Iraq: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 IMF Article IV Mission
A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.
The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.
March 3, 2024: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Mr. Jean-Guillaume Poulain, met with the Iraqi authorities in Amman during February 20–29 to conduct the 2024 Article IV consultation. The following statement was issued at the end of the mission:
Economic growth is projected to continue amid fiscal expansion. Meanwhile, medium-term vulnerabilities to oil price volatility have increased significantly. Reducing oil dependence and ensuring fiscal sustainability while protecting critical social and investment spending will require a significant fiscal adjustment, focused on controlling the public wage bill and increasing non-oil tax revenues. In parallel, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labor force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base. The authorities should therefore seek to enable private sector development, including through labor market reforms, modernization of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.
Economic Outlook and Risks
Growth in the non-oil sector has rebounded strongly in 2023 while inflation receded. Supported by increases in public expenditure and solid agricultural output, real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6 percent in 2023 after stalling in 2022. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5 percent in January 2023 to 4 percent by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation. The current account is expected to have recorded a surplus of 2.6 percent of GDP and international reserves increased to US$ 112 billion.
These positive developments were supported by the normalization of trade finance and the stabilization of FX market. After some initial disruptions following the introduction of new anti-money laundering and combating financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) controls on cross-border payments in November 2022, the improved compliance with the new system and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)’s initiatives to cut processing time led to a recovery in trade finance in the second half of 2023. This ensured private sector access to foreign exchange at the official rate for imports and travel purposes.
In the meantime, the fiscal position worsened. Although the expansionary budget was under-executed due to delayed Parliamentary approval, the fiscal balance still declined from a surplus of 10.8 percent of GDP in 2022 to a deficit of 1.3 percent in 2023, due to lower oil revenues and an increase in expenditures by 8 percentage points of GDP, of which salaries and pensions contributed 5 percentage points as the authorities started hiring in line with the budget law.
Overall growth is projected to rebound in 2024 and risks are tilted downwards amid heightened uncertainty. Non-oil growth momentum will continue in 2024. Larger declines in oil prices or extended OPEC+ cuts could weigh on fiscal and external accounts. If regional tensions escalate, a disruption of shipping routes or damage to the oil infrastructure could result in oil production losses that could outweigh the potential positive impact of higher oil prices. In case of a deterioration in domestic security conditions, this could lead to a decline in business sentiment and suspension of investment projects. Over the medium term, non-oil growth is projected to stabilize around 2.5 percent given existing hurdles to private sector development. Furthermore, vulnerability to oil price declines has increased as higher expenditures are projected to push the fiscal break-even oil price above $90 in 2024. Absent new policy measures, the fiscal deficit is expected to reach 7.6 percent in 2024 and widen further thereafter as oil prices are projected to gradually decline over the medium term. As a consequence, public debt would almost double from 44 percent in 2023 to 86 percent by 2029.
Policy Priorities
An ambitious fiscal adjustment would be required to help stabilize debt in the medium term and rebuild fiscal buffers, while protecting critical capital spending. Most of the fiscal adjustment would have to come from reducing current expenditure, especially controlling the wage bill by limiting mandatory hiring and gradually introducing an attrition rule. The authorities should also seek to increase non-oil revenues by broadening the personal income tax base and making it more progressive, reviewing the customs tariff structure, and considering new taxes on luxury items. In parallel, efforts to make revenue and customs administration more efficient should continue. Further savings could be obtained through better targeting social support and increasing cost recovery within the electricity sector. These adjustment measures should provide room for the expansion of the targeted social safety net.
The authorities should also strengthen public financial management and limit fiscal risks. The mission welcomes initial steps towards the establishment of a Treasury Single Account (TSA), which is crucial to improve cash management. Further progress is needed and close cooperation between the CBI and Ministry of Finance will be essential. The next steps are to define TSA design options and complete the bank account census. In future years, overall ceilings on the issuance of guarantees should be specified in the budget law and be enforced. The mission advise against the use of extrabudgetary funds and highlights potential fiscal risks associated with their use. As a second best, it would be important to ensure the Iraq Fund for Development has appropriate governance arrangements, including governing board independence while ensuring transparency of the Fund’s activities including by publishing its investment plans in the annual budget documentation and restricting its ability to borrow.
The mission encourages the authorities to build on the CBI welcomed efforts to reduce excess liquidity. The CBI appropriately raised the policy interest rate and reserve requirements, introduced a 14-day CBI bill facility last summer, and scaled back its subsidized lending to the real estate sector. However, monetary policy pass-through has been muted, hampered by large excess liquidity and lack of market incentives in financial intermediaries, especially at state-owned banks. The CBI’s ongoing efforts should be supported by consolidating idle government deposits in a TSA, refraining from procyclical fiscal policy, reducing the reliance on monetary finance, and improving public debt management. In parallel, efforts to develop an interbank market with the help of IMF technical assistance should continue. The mission also welcomes the authorities’ steps to speed up the digitalization of the economy, reduce the reliance on cash and enhance financial inclusion.
Wide-ranging structural reforms are needed to foster private sector development and economic diversification. Iraq needs higher and more sustainable non-oil growth to absorb the rapidly growing labor force, increase non-oil exports and government revenue, and reduce the economy’s vulnerability to oil price shocks. Key reform priorities include:
The IMF staff team stands ready to support the authorities in their reform efforts and would like to thank them for constructive and productive discussions during this mission.
Iraqi economists.net
GOLDILOCKS
What have we learned the last few days about the Iraqi Dinar?
Yes, a rate has been on the back screen for years, but it is not tradable until it goes to the front screen for you and me.
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CBI Announcement:
Shafaq News / The Iraqi Central Bank (CBI) affirmed on Saturday that it has provided five alternative currencies to the dollar for traders to use in purchasing goods from abroad, using each country's currency through the bank.
CBI’s Deputy Governor Ammar Hamad told Shafaq News Agency that "CBI has made other foreign currencies available for Iraqi traders, including the euro, the Chinese yuan, the Turkish lira, the Emirati dirham, and the Indian rupee."
He added that "these currencies are now available to traders, aiming to facilitate foreign trade. When a trader imports goods from China, for instance, they can pay in Iraqi dinars to the Iraqi bank, which will then settle the amount with the Chinese company or factory in Chinese currency."
https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/CBI-confirms-provision-of-five-foreign-currencies-alternative-to-the-dollar-for-traders
Walkingstick
[Iraqi Bank Friend called #1 Update - He owns 7 banks, 2 in Jordan]
About two weeks ago we told you IOO the banks of Iraq were going to be receiving sample sheets/specimens.
They were very very precise pictures of the lower notes. It turns out #1 has them. ..They started to practice and use them but they needed more help so they requested.
You will see this request on the CBI website probably within this week where they are requesting help with the security features in the small notes that they are practicing counting, sorting and training right now ..
.The new software will be with them and the banks within this week.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/03/iraqi-bank-friend-bank-story-by.html
[Iraqi Bank Friend called #1 Update - He owns 7 banks, 2 in Jordan]
About two weeks ago we told you IOO the banks of Iraq were going to be receiving sample sheets/specimens.
They were very very precise pictures of the lower notes. It turns out #1 has them. ..They started to practice and use them but they needed more help so they requested.
You will see this request on the CBI website probably within this week where they are requesting help with the security features in the small notes that they are practicing counting, sorting and training right now..
.The new software will be with them and the banks within this week.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/03/iraqi-bank-friend-bank-story-by.html
TNT Fri. 20 Dec. 2024 TNT A guy had 150 million Dinar. 50 million of it brought $28.50/Dinar. The other 100 million Dinar brought him $7.xx...