Who wins and loses from the "withdrawal" of the international coalition forces from Iraq?
Baghdad today - follow-up
A report published by the British BBC network, today, Wednesday (February 14, 2024), reviewed the parties who gain and lose from ending the presence of the international coalition in Iraq.
The network quoted journalist and human rights activist Haider Al-Basir as believing that "American forces will not withdraw from Iraq in the near future and that the negotiations are to buy more time on the part of Washington."
Regarding the parties that lose from a possible American withdrawal, Al-Basir says that the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government and the Iraqi Sunnis will be the most prominent losers.
He says: "The Kurds and Sunnis refuse the evacuation of American forces, because they know full well that the Iraqi government is weak, and that Iran's influence may exceed Washington's influence in their country."
"Iran has Shiite factions loyal to it, Turkey is fighting the Turkish Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is active in northern Iraq, and the withdrawal will be in the interest of both countries."
Therefore, Sunnis and Kurds fear such a withdrawal because it will create a major vacuum, at a time when it is losing trust with Iran, whose recent improvement in relations with Saudi Arabia has not been reflected in its relations with Sunnis and Kurds in Iraq, according to Haider al-Basir.
Mohamed Abbas Nagy, a researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political Studies in Cairo, believes that the government, Iraqi factions and Iran are the main winners in the event of a withdrawal.
"The withdrawal means that Iran will automatically fill the resulting vacuum, so the first beneficiary will be the main regional adversary of the United States. Iran will portray it as a victory — as it did in Afghanistan — and will benefit greatly from it."
In addition, the Iraqi Shiite factions will benefit, and will "seek to strengthen their position and replicate the experience of the Lebanese Hezbollah in Iraq."
The government of Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani will also benefit because the removal of coalition forces is part of its political program, and thus declare it a success for its political program, Naji said.
"The withdrawal will also give Russia, Turkey and Iran a great opportunity to put in place security and political arrangements in Iraq and Syria in the post-US withdrawal phase."
Source: BBC