The United States is experiencing a state of political and partisan division that it has not witnessed for decades, amid fears of the repercussions of the unrest on the countries of the world in light of America’s importance in the balance of the global economy. As there are fears of a civil war, some experts consider the demands of some states, such as Texas, which wants to control its federal borders against the backdrop of the influx of immigrants, to be demands put forward by southern states in the year 1860, which led to the outbreak of a civil war in America.
Other experts explain that the current debate between American political elites is somewhat similar to the debate that the United States experienced in the second half of the nineteenth century between the North and the South.
As poignant evidence of these concerns, experts pointed out that the state of Texas’s refusal to tolerate the flow of illegal immigrants across the border, with the approval of US President Joe Biden, received support from 25 governors. Experts confirm that there is no reasonable scenario that could lead to the peaceful independence of Texas from the United States, even if this was the will of its residents, as this could lead to a dangerous change in the geography of North America, as before that California announced its intention to become independent as well.
In the same context, the recent announcement by the state of Colorado that it will not allow Donald Trump to run in the upcoming presidential elections has reinforced the idea of discord in American society.
As the shadow of the political division warned, experts warned of the repercussions of the turmoil in the United States on the global economy and other countries, especially countries that have large investments in America.
Analysts say that the US public debt has reached an astronomical figure of 34.1 trillion dollars, and is growing at a rate of approximately 3 trillion dollars annually, at a pace that exceeds US government estimates, which increases the burden on the US budget, as interest could reach 1.3 trillion dollars annually.
Experts mentioned a quote by one of the founding fathers of the United States that repaying debts is a matter of generosity, not a right.
As an indication of the possible exit of capital from the US economy, experts said that 30-year US bond yields reached their highest level this year, which means that demand for US bonds is declining.
In this regard, expert Alexander Nazarov said, 30-year US bond yields have reached their highest level this year, meaning demand for these bonds is declining, and uncontrolled capital flight from US debt may begin in the near future. If this happens, there is only one way to avoid the collapse of the US economy, which is to print tens of trillions of new dollars within a few weeks, after which hyperinflation in the United States will begin.
The expert, Nazarov, recommended reconsidering investment in American bonds, as the economic repercussions of any new crisis in the United States would be more severe than previous ones.
Nazarov said in a post on his channel on the Telegram application, confronting his speech to leading Arab economies:
“To Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and other countries that keep their foreign exchange reserves in American bonds, I can only say one word, run away!”
Washington’s sanctions policy against countries, led by Russia and China, forced the US government to recalculate its calculations about investing in Treasury bonds.
Indeed, Russia withdrew its funds almost completely from these bonds, and Beijing reduced its investments in American debt securities by tens of billions of dollars, and fell to second place on the list of major holders of American bonds.
According to US Treasury Department data for November 2023, Japan tops the list, as it invested $1.12 trillion in these securities, and the following are the largest holders of US bonds (November 2023 data).
Experts wonder how safe it is to invest money in the American economy in light of the political and economic reality that the United States is currently experiencing. They pointed out that the Gulf countries lost billions of dollars in the 2007-2008 financial crisis as a result of their investment in Western financial markets.
Top Arab countries investing in US bonds (data for November 2023).
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