...we really do have good contact in Iraq. And we're getting word that the ATM machines are filled with the lower denomination bills like ours...10 20 50 and 100 dinar notes - I think those are all available in the actual ATM machines...
Now they have been working...since Thanksgiving - maybe a little bit before that - in the airport locations in Baghdad and at the border location – where ever the ATM’s are at the border...they are working now and they are in use...I do not believe they're all in use all over the country yet. But I think that is about to change...they are minting new coins for people to use...Iraqis are going to feel a little jingle in their pockets soon...
I've been told that we should get notifications... Thursday, very early morning...possibly wake up to it on a Thursday. Let's see what happens.
There is a popular phrase in the smart investments community: “There are no certainties, there are only probabilities”.
Applying this to the IQD, the probabilities of an RV just moved a lot higher.
Joining the BRICS alliance would offer Iraq economic stability, enhanced trade relations, and a stronger bargaining position in the global economic and foreign currency exchange landscape.
A recent series of strategic and geopolitical moves involving Iraq, particularly the centralization of oil governance, Russia’s influence in Kurdistan, and China’s economic inroads, suggest a realistic scenario where Iraq formally joins the BRICS alliance to establish its economic power and IQD currency strength.
The move towards a unified oil law (more on this in an upcoming article), orchestrated in collaboration with Russia’s interests, signifies a shift away from Western influence in Iraq’s oil sector.
As Iraq pivots toward a more strategic economic approach, it’s common ground with BRICS nations, who advocate for multipolarity and resist Western dominance, continues to grow.
Here’s why:
Russia and China are strategically securing control over Iraq’s oil resources, particularly the Eridu oil field in Block 10, which is the largest discovery in Iraq in the last 20 years.
Lukoil, a Russian company, aims to take complete control of this oil-rich area by acquiring Inpex’s 40 percent stake in Block 10.
Russia’s influence in Iraq’s oil industry has expanded, notably with its effective takeover of Kurdistan’s oil and gas industry.
Furthermore, China’s extensive economic engagement, including the Belt and Road Initiative and preferential oil agreements, positions Iraq within a sphere of influence that aligns with the BRICS ethos.
Joining the BRICS alliance would offer Iraq economic stability, enhanced trade relations, and a stronger bargaining position in the global economic and foreign currency exchange landscape.
Additionally, considering the BRICS Alliance’s discussions around alternatives to the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, Iraq is likely considering a more diversified and resilient currency strategy within the BRICS framework.
Strategic Winners and Losers
Winners: Russia and China emerge as strategic winners, consolidating control over Iraq’s oil resources and expanding their economic influence. They benefit from favorable agreements, infrastructure projects, and weakened Western influence.
Losers: Western nations and companies face a decline in influence as Russia and China strategically secure key positions in Iraq’s energy sector. Other regional players not aligned with Russia and China may also lose out on economic opportunities and influence.
The Big Picture Clearly Shows the Writing on the Wall: Iraq Will Join BRICS
The broader strategy involves multiple exploration and development deals between Russian and Chinese firms, granting them a significant geopolitical presence in Iraq.
Both countries are leveraging agreements, such as the Iraq-China Framework Agreement, which provides China with first refusal on oil projects and a 30 percent discount on oil, gas, and petrochemical purchases. China is also allowed to build factories and infrastructure across Iraq, including railway links as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.
These plans extend to the southeast region of Iraq, connecting to the major oil export hub of Basra. Russia and China aim to establish control over oil and gas fields and transportation hubs in this region.
Major New Projects Favor BRICS – Not the USA/West
Infrastructure projects, such as the approval of funds for Al-Zubair and the construction of a civilian airport in Dhi Qar, demonstrate China’s increasing involvement in Iraq’s development within the framework of oil-for-reconstruction agreements.
Overall, this signifies a broader shift in influence away from Western countries in Iraq’s energy sector.
Lukoil’s Acquisition of Inpex’s Stake in Block 10
Significance: Lukoil, a Russian company, aims to take control of Iraq’s Eridu oil field, the largest oil discovery in Iraq in the last 20 years. This move aligns with Russia’s strategy to dominate Iraq’s oil resources, reducing Western influence.
Winners: Russia and China, as they strengthen their control over Iraq’s oil sector.
Losers: Inpex, a major oil company from the U.S. ally Japan, loses its stake in the Block 10 region, marking a decline in Western influence.
Russian Control of Kurdistan’s Oil and Gas Industry
Significance: Russia effectively took over Kurdistan’s oil and gas industry through Rosneft, consolidating influence in a troublesome semi-autonomous region. This maneuver contributes to Russia’s broader plan for dominance in Iraq.
Winners: Russia, as it extends its influence over Kurdistan and weakens ties between the region and the central Iraq government.
Losers: Western interests, as Russian influence in Kurdistan grows.
Iraq-China Framework Agreement
Significance: The agreement gives China first refusal on Iraqi oil, gas, and petrochemical projects, along with a 30 percent discount on purchases. It also allows China to build factories and infrastructure in Iraq, aligning with its Belt and Road Initiative.
Winners: China, securing favorable terms and expanding its economic and infrastructural influence in Iraq.
Losers: Other countries seeking access to Iraq’s energy resources, facing competition and potential exclusion due to China’s preferential treatment.
Infrastructure Projects in Al-Zubair and Dhi Qar
Significance: China’s heavy involvement in infrastructure projects, funded by Iraq, strengthens economic ties and contributes to the oil-for-reconstruction agreement. The projects enhance China’s presence in key regions with significant oil fields.
Winners: China, gaining influence through infrastructure development in strategic areas.
Losers: Other nations and companies competing for similar projects in Iraq, as China secures key infrastructure deals.
Construction of a Civilian Airport in Dhi Qar
Significance: China secures a major contract to build a civilian airport in a region rich in oil fields. This project facilitates economic development and connectivity in an oil-rich area.
Winners: China, expanding its infrastructure projects in areas crucial for oil production.
Losers: Other nations seeking similar contracts and influence in the same region.
Al-Sadr City Development Deal
Significance: Chinese companies are involved in the development of Al-Sadr City, contributing to the oil-for-reconstruction agreement. This deal further cements China’s economic involvement in Iraq.
Winners: China, strengthening its economic ties and presence in key urban areas.
Losers: Competing Western nations and companies aiming for reconstruction and investment projects in Iraq.
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US Department of State: Iraq still one of the "safe havens" for terrorism
Shafaq News / The annual report of the US Department of State on terrorism revealed that Iraq continues to be classified as one of the "safe havens" for extremist organizations. It accused Iran of continuing to support "terrorist" activities in Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries.
The report stated that "Washington and its allies successfully continued their efforts against terrorist organizations in 2022. The Global Coalition, led by the United States, gathered more than $440 million in commitments for stabilization efforts. Meanwhile, terrorist threats persisted in several conflict regions."
It highlighted that the United States pledged $107 million to support infrastructure and vital projects in Iraq and northeastern Syria. The United States and the United Kingdom co-hosted a donor conference with 14 governments and numerous UN and humanitarian organizations to discuss enhancing security and humanitarian conditions at the Al-Hol displacement camp in northeastern Syria.
Despite significant successes in counterterrorism, the report emphasized that terrorist groups remained active and determined to launch attacks. ISIS maintained a global agenda, promoting widespread terrorist campaigns across the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
Throughout 2022, Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups continued their activities even after the death of leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in July. In Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda elements, ISIS, and regionally focused terrorist groups remained active.
The report highlighted Iran's continued role as a state sponsor of terrorism, facilitating various terrorist activities and illicit operations worldwide.
In the regional context, Iran supported terrorist acts in Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen through proxies and partner groups like Hezbollah. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force and Ministry of Intelligence and Security were identified as primary actors in recruiting, funding, and conspiring with terrorists across Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
Regarding Africa, the report indicated that terrorist-affiliated groups aligned with Al-Qaeda and ISIS targeted civilian infrastructure and populations, including humanitarian workers and government officials. These attacks resulted in casualties, injuries, kidnappings, property seizures, and destruction across Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022.
Terrorists routinely exploited interfaith conflicts to garner support for their operations, according to the report.
In East Asia and the Pacific, the threat to governments in the region from foreign-designated terrorist organizations and ISIS-inspired extremists decreased. However, regional security forces continued to pressure the leadership structures of several ISIS-affiliated terrorist organizations in the Philippines and Indonesia.
Most terrorist incidents by ISIS-affiliated groups in 2022 involved attacks against military or police targets. Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia reported the repatriation of some foreign terrorist fighters or their families in 2022.
In the Middle East and North Africa, terrorist organizations continued to operate and maintain safe havens in 2022. ISIS, its affiliates, Al-Qaeda, and Iran-backed groups posed significant terrorist threats to the region.
These groups notably expanded their activities in conflict-affected areas, such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. However, both ISIS and Al-Qaeda suffered major leadership losses during the reporting period, including the deaths of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi.
Iran continued its extensive support for terrorism in 2022, using the Quds Force, its proxies, and partners to destabilize the region and enhance its influence ab…
Persistent Threat of Terrorism: A Deep Dive into the Complex Security Situation in Diyala, Iraq
The recent attack in Diyala province, Iraq, that claimed the lives of eleven civilians, has raised alarm over the unyielding threat of terrorism and the intricate security situation in the region. Assailants, believed to be affiliated with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), executed a coordinated attack involving explosives and gunfire, specifically targeting civilians returning from an electoral meeting. This event underscores the enduring influence and operational capabilities of ISIL cells, despite dedicated efforts to counteract their activities.
Security Challenges in Diyala Province
Diyala province, located on the boundary between Iran and Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, has emerged as a hotspot for numerous security issues. These include periodic attacks by ISIL cells, sectarian tensions between Shiite and Sunni communities, and confrontations among competing militias, tribes, and political factions vying for power and control over illicit undertakings. The strategic positioning of Diyala and the diverse array of local and regional forces further amplify the unstable and unpredictable security environment it inhabits.
Implications of the Recent Attack
The assault serves as a stark reminder of the unceasing threat of terrorism in Iraq, particularly in areas like Diyala, where the remnants of ISIL continue to pose a substantial danger to the stability and safety of the local populace. The assailants’ success in evading capture and the lack of any group claiming responsibility for the attack contributes to the intricacy of the security landscape, highlighting the challenges in identifying and neutralizing clandestine terrorist cells operating within the region.
Political Dimension of Security Concerns
Furthermore, the attack occurred in the run-up to provincial council elections, adding a political dimension to the security concerns in Diyala. The targeting of a local MP’s relatives in the attack underscores the potential for violence to influence or disrupt the democratic process, inciting questions about the broader implications of security threats on political stability and governance within the region.
In response to the attack, Governor Muthana al-Tamimi condemned the attackers as ‘cowardly’ and called for heightened vigilance against dormant ISIL cells. Additionally, Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Kurdish region, stressed the need for enhanced cooperation among Iraqi security forces, Kurdish Peshmerga forces, and the international coalition against ISIL.
The attack in Diyala serves as a stark reminder of the enduring security challenges facing Iraq. The presence of a residual ISIS force, estimated to have thousands of members across Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic, underscores the persistent threat posed by the group and the ongoing need for sustained international support and collaboration to prevent a resurgence of violent extremism in the region.
The attack also underscores the pervasive impact of terrorism on civilian populations and the broader implications for regional stability and security. The targeting of civilians, including those returning from an electoral meeting, highlights the insidious nature of terrorist tactics and their potential to undermine social cohesion, democratic processes, and the overall well-being of communities in conflict-affected areas.
Yet more proof that Iraqi’s economy does not need to grow any more at this time in order to get to the value of the dinar to what we need for a fair and honest rate reflected.
I quote from one of today’s articles – “The Prime Minister’s philosophy confirms that economic reform cannot be achieved without reforming the banking system, and therefore the priority begins with reforming the financial system.”
Yes, the “priority” begins with reforming the financial system and currency reform is a large part of the financial system.
Remember I have been telling you about this in the “White Paper” (a set of comprehensive reforms in 3 areas, stock market, banking and finance).
The article is referring to the pillars of financial reform for Iraq and starts with the banking and financial reforms.
It says the currency reform is a priority as it is all part of the effort of the financial reforms.
Iraq will never be able to raise enough the money alone to rebuild Iraq and its economy unless they first complete the needed banking and financial reforms needed to attract investors.
This discussion of the sanctions on Iraq and their impacts, bring us to yet another very interesting article in today’s news.
I quote from the heading of the article – “ADVISER TO THE PRIME MINISTER: ECONOMIC POLICY IN IRAQ IS MOVING TOWARDS IMPLEMENTING THE PRINCIPLE OF MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY” .
It tells us flat right out in the open that Iraq is about to take complete control over their currency again.
What are the ramifications of their new, soon to be “monetary sovereignty”?
Monetary sovereignty is the power of the state to exercise exclusive legal control over its currency, broadly defined, by exercise of the following powers:
• Legal tender – the exclusive authority to designate the legal tender forms of payment.
• Issuance and retirement – the exclusive authority to control the issuance and retirement of the legal tender.
The financial advisor to the prime minister Saleh, goes on to say in the article and I quote again- “confirmed today, Tuesday, that the economic policy in Iraq is moving towards implementing the principle of monetary sovereignty.
This has reinstatement and RV written all over this statement.
Then Saleh goes on to say more and I quote – “A country other than the dinar with in-country pricing; because monetary duality has harmed the economy. ”
He then went on point out and I quote – “at the same time that there is a tendency to diversify currencies for travel purposes and not be limited to the dollar.”
Folks he is talking about the program rate and how it has harmed the Iraqi dinar or any countries currency when they use this same tactic to sole peg any currency just to the dollar.
He goes on to say it has to be changed from a sole peg to a diversity of currencies.
Again they basket of currencies that is coming as their new dinar peg.
I also showed you other articles in the past weeks on this diversity of currencies and so we know the re-peg of the dinar is coming shortly.
The rate has to reflect the TRUE rate of the value of the assets Iraq now holds.
Not the value of an intentional, sanctioned, suppressed currency.
Why would they even bother to do all this work for the banking, financial and currency reforms if they were just going to leave the rate at 1/6 of a penny?
So ,what we talked about first was the announcement of the accession to the WTO.
I was told it was scheduled for last week but is delayed for some time in December and maybe even in January.
It will not be announced until the reinstatement occurs.
Next, I was told the project to delete the zeros is on track for the month of December but they would not give me a more definite date.
They told me the committee is now working on the re-education program to the citizens teaching them how the dinar will be changed in the near future.
I was told they could not push out the education of the newer lower denominations and swap out until it is happening and the currency swap is in full motion.
This is new to me since I always thought they would do this months prior.
But this is going to be close to the actual events.
I was told there would be a certain designated time period to bring in the dollars and swap them out for “electronic dinars” at the banks.
After this period the dollar would still be accepted but the rate would be much worst for the dollar as the dinar would climb.
Speaking of electronic banking, I asked about this in more detail.
I said that I read so many articles over the last 17 year about the Point of Sale (POS) for merchants and electronic banking.
But why has Iraq not yet converted?
I was told that the equipment is expensive and someone has to wire and hook it all up.
I was reminded that Iraq is backwards to the developed countries and never had these devices before.
I was told that the CBI funded many devices initially and paid work teams even to wire and install them.
But these funds ran out and not everyone was connected.
Some merchants still also like to have hard currency and coins in their hands and are reluctant to take advantage of the latest technology thus the CBI has to sell them on the idea.
But it is all working and only takes time.
This process will not stop or holdup the currency reform that is coming as there are already many more merchants who are connected than not.
The contact also told me that the rate is going to change very soon but not backwards only forwards, meaning to go up in value and not down.
I was also told that as an investor we will like the final rate.
Again, it was emphasized to me that there would first be an in-country rate (close to USD 1 to IQD 1) during the swap-out in Iraq of the three zero notes and then later a new rate once the dinar is liberated back to the foreign currency exchanges and re-pegged.
At this point the in-country rate goes away.
There will NEVER be two rates.
When the in-country rate comes out there is little we, as investors, can do to exchange and our turn-out will come later, if we so choose to give up our dinars.
My contact then shared something with me that was curious but not amazing to me.
It said that no matter what you hear on your news in your country do not expect any FOREX until at the earliest in early 2024.
Iraq’s Al-Rafidain Bank Extends Issuance of Reconstruction Bonds; Iraq Joins EBRD as New Shareholder
In an economic move guided by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq, Al-Rafidain Bank, Iraq’s largest bank, has declared the extension of its reconstruction bonds issuance to citizens. These bonds are accessible until November 9, 2023 and are presented in two denominations: a 500,000 Iraqi dinar bond and a 1,000,000 Iraqi dinar bond.
Details of the Bonds
The 500,000 Iraqi dinar bond carries a 6% annual interest rate paid semi-annually over a two-year term. On the other hand, the 1,000,000 Iraqi dinar bond offers an 8% annual interest rate, also paid semi-annually, but over a four-year term. Citizens aiming to acquire these bonds are required to apply directly to the bank with their identification documents. Upon payment, they will be given a receipt which they are advised to maintain until the bond is prepared.
Trading and Expiry of the Bonds
The bonds are eligible for trading in the securities market, providing ample opportunities for bondholders. In terms of their longevity, the bonds hold a validity of 10 years post their due date. After this period, they are moved to the Ministry of Finance. As a significant financial advantage, these reconstruction bonds are exempt from taxes according to the Federal Budget Law No. 13 of 2023.
EBRD’s Support and UNDP’s Initiative
Alongside this development, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has marked Iraq as its newest shareholder, signifying the bank’s commitment to finance Iraq’s green transition and fortify its banking sector. Iraq’s inclusion in the EBRD’s southern and eastern Mediterranean (Semed) region is part of a broader shareholder expansion, extending into sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has initiated the first joint dialogue on reintegration and social cohesion in Ninewa Governorate. This dialogue convened a varied set of opinion leaders to deliberate on ways to reestablish the communal bonds that once united their communities before the ISIS insurgency seven years ago.
