[via PDK] Seems that things appear to be heating up…so many rumors.
Chatter continues to be great and we will see if anything happens over this weekend. We have a lot of group leaders that seem to think this is it.
Here is another one that is putting pressure on this “re-valuation” "Amid war on Gaza – Egypt see highest exchange rate on US dollar in black market” So in the middle east the dollar is gaining and will cause regional issues and inflation. They are painting themselves in a corner without a reset. They need rate changes.
Nader From The Mid East
Purchasing power...when you buy for $100 over here [U.S.], over there [In Iraq] cost you $200. If it [dinar rate] goes to 1 to 1 if you buy it in America for $100, we'll buy over here for $100 too.
Iran and Allies Strive to Prevent Broader Conflict with Israel
Iran and its allies, including militant groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, are striving to prevent a broader conflict with Israel. Despite their belligerent rhetoric and backing of several militant groups in the region, a comprehensive strategy for managing the situation seems to be absent. The powerful military force, Hezbollah, doubles as a political movement with substantial influence in Lebanon’s parliament. Its decision to wage war would likely necessitate Tehran’s approval. However, Iran and Hezbollah seem inclined to keep Israel and US forces in the region under constant pressure through harassment attacks, not instigating a broader war.
Surprises and Strategies
Recent events indicate that Iran and its proxies may not have predicted the scale and severity of Hamas’ attacks on Israel. Intelligence sources reveal that high-ranking Iranian officials seemed shocked by Hamas’ actions. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, denied any involvement by Hezbollah or Iran in his initial public comments on the Gaza war. He emphasized that the attacks were purely a Palestinian operation, stating that all options are on the table for a potential military response by Hezbollah against Israel.
Hezbollah’s Dual Role
Hezbollah, besides being a potent military force, is also a political entity. Following last year’s elections in Lebanon, the pro-Hezbollah bloc holds 58 out of 128 seats in the Lebanese parliament. Consequently, Hezbollah must respond to Lebanese public opinion to a certain extent. Considering the struggling Lebanese economy, it’s unlikely that the Lebanese people desire a repeat of the 2006 war, which resulted in billions of dollars in damages. Furthermore, any decision by Hezbollah to escalate the war would likely need Tehran’s approval.
Pressure over War
Iran and its proxy groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen appear to favor maintaining pressure on Israel and US forces in the region through harassment attacks, rather than instigating a broader war. While the ayatollahs in Iran may rhetorically seek Israel’s destruction, they are unlikely to instigate a large-scale regional war that could also involve the United States. The Iranian regime is grappling with significant domestic challenges, including protests against repressive policies and a struggling economy due to US sanctions. Therefore, Iran is more likely to act through its proxies in the region, maintaining pressure on Israel and the US without escalating to a full-scale war.
US Response and Iran’s Call to UN
In response to the ongoing conflict, the United States has deployed a strategic missile-armed submarine to the Middle East as a deterrent to regional adversaries. The Ohio-class submarine is equipped with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles and can deliver a significant firepower quickly. The deployment of this submarine, along with two carrier strike groups and an amphibious group, sends a clear deterrent message to Iran and its allies. The US has stated that while it does not seek a conflict with Iran, it will take necessary measures to protect its personnel and interests in the region. On the other hand, Iran has called on the United Nations to take immediate action to end Israeli aggression in Gaza and lift the blockade on the Palestinian enclave. Iran accuses Israel of intentionally destroying urban and administrative infrastructure, hospitals, and educational centers, and violating over 30 UN Security Council resolutions.
In conclusion, Iran’s desire to avoid a broader war with Israel and the United States is evident. While Iran and its proxies continue to support militant groups in the region, they seem to prefer maintaining pressure through harassment attacks rather than instigating a full-scale war. The deployment of US forces, including a strategic submarine, serves as a deterrent to Iran and its allies. The ongoing conflict in the region remains a complex and volatile situation with significant implications for regional stability.
Iraq can play a pivotal role in solving the crisis in Gaza, Khamenei says
Shafaq News / Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emphasized the need for heightened political pressure within the Islamic world against the United States and Israel. He stated this during his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani in the capital, Tehran.
Khamenei expressed his appreciation for Iraq's strong support for the people of Gaza, affirming the necessity of increasing political pressure in the Islamic world to halt the killing of Gaza's residents by the U.S. and Zionist forces. He highlighted Iraq's pivotal role, stating, "Iraq, as a significant nation in the region, can play a distinctive role in this regard, creating a new path in the Arab and Islamic worlds."
Addressing the dire situation in Gaza, Khamenei condemned the atrocities committed, pointing out direct American involvement in managing the war. He stated, "Regardless of the ongoing killings in Gaza, the Zionist entity has truly failed in this matter as it has been unable to restore its tarnished reputation and will not be able to do so in the future without American military and political assistance. The Americans are partners with the Zionists in the crimes against Gaza."
Khamenei stressed the comprehensive efforts needed to increase political pressure on the U.S. and the Zionist entity to cease the bombings in Gaza. He emphasized, "The Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq can play a role and have an impact in this area through coordination between them."
Additionally, Khamenei discussed bilateral cooperation between Iran and Iraq in economic and security domains, stating, "Progress is being made, thanks to God, but it is crucial to ensure the continued implementation of agreements with the same initial zeal and without delay."
In conclusion, he expressed his sincere gratitude to Iraq, its people, government, and Prime Minister for their warm hospitality, services, and security arrangements during the forty-day period.
Economical 11/06/2023 Yasser Al-Metwally In order to distinguish between the advantages (benefits) and disadvantages (risks) of the cash reserve, we must understand the simplified definition of it, which means (all the foreign currencies that countries own and keep in their central banks).
Among the benefits of these currencies (cash reserves in foreign currency) is using them to finance their foreign trade first, and then to pay their debts second, and also more importantly, maintaining the stability of their local currencies, and third, dealing with financial crises and monetary inflation.
As for its risks, it is determined by restricting it (restricting its use by the countries that own it (i.e., exporting it).
We offer this simplified definition to those who do not know the importance of monetary reserves and their impact on economies, especially those who confuse monetary policy with useless statements, and of course those who are not specialists in economics and its risks.
There is no doubt that the dollar is still the strongest currency in the world despite all attempts to find a competitive alternative to it. The United States of America accounts for nearly a quarter of the global gross domestic product, which makes it the largest and strongest economic power in the world.
What adds to this strength is that it has the largest financial institutions and banks in the world, and that most of the global trade financing between countries is denominated in dollars, especially oil wealth, and dollar transactions constitute approximately 70 percent compared to other currencies combined.
Perhaps the weapon of sanctions that America imposes on countries that oppose its policy is through restricting its monetary reserve and not allowing it to use it. The two closest examples of this are Russia because of its war with Ukraine and before that Iran because of the failure to resolve the nuclear file between them. Notice the size of the impact of restricting the use of its foreign exchange reserve. What an impact? In their economic problems, especially the collapse of the local currency of the two countries, albeit at different rates.
Here, most of the countries that were dissatisfied with the strict American policy of using the dollar as a weapon to undermine their economies turned to the BRICS group in the hope that it would be able to mitigate the effects of the dollar. Returning to Russia and Iran, the reason for their resistance to the dollar sanctions is that they possess solid economic bases that allow them to endure for longer periods of time because they possess solid production bases.
The question is: Is the Iraqi economy able to endure if America decides to restrict its monetary reserves?
The Iraqi economy depends on imports for everything and does not have a solid production base, whether industrial or agricultural. Other than that, our cash reserves are subject to old decisions in the hands of America. We do not want to delve into the merits of the decisions and their effects. Rather, we only draw the attention of some gentlemen from the legislative and executive sectors. Do not put more pressure on the Central Bank, let it act in the language of approved monetary policy. In countries of the world, which are based on previously agreed upon international standards.
The chaos of statements makes matters worse, confuses the market, and pushes for wrong decisions, thus paving the way for specialists to deal with the dollar problem to find the appropriate solution.
The Dollar Continues To Storm Iraqi Markets, And Many Solutions Are In Vain
Economy 2023/11/05 Number of readings : 216 Baghdad - Iraq Today: With the return of the rise in dollar prices, popular dissatisfaction and anger are renewed, especially by poor citizens, after the possibility of a stifling economic crisis, which will cause great harm to their miserable living conditions.
The economic expert, Bassem Antoine, said in a press interview, “Economic reforms, in light of the rise in the price of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, need a long time to complete what the current government seeks, by untying the dollar knot and ending the major crisis.”
He added, "Iraq needs to develop the economy in a way that is different from before, especially with regard to the agricultural, commercial, and tourism sectors," noting that "activating these sectors will contribute greatly to reducing poverty and unemployment rates, and increase the strength of the country's economy, which will strengthen the value of the Iraqi dinar." . LINK
Article: "PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE: WE RENEW OUR SUPPORT FOR THE CENTRAL BANK’S MEASURES TO CONTROL THE EXCHANGE RATE" Article quote: "Al-Atwani denied “the news circulating that there is a tendency to dismiss the governor of the Central Bank." Nice to see that it was just more rumors...He is an intelligent, patriotic and most important wants the RV as much as we do.
...We can see many events in-line with January 2024 . I want to bring you up to date on my latest conversation with my CBI contact... It was told to me that the re-education campaign is still going forward but not yet rolled out as of yet. There is talk in the CBI it may be postponed due to the Gaza strip conflict, but no action or direction has been given to signify this as of yet...
...in the news is yet more de-dollarization efforts as they convert the remaining of the border crossing stations all to “all dinars” only for custom fees. The Parliamentary Finance Committee renewed on Tuesday, its support for the Central Bank’s measures to control the exchange rate and address any obstacles...we learned that the new government of Al-Sudani made promises in his administrations curriculum to bring back the dinar stronger than the dollar. Is this why he has openly in public stated the dinar is already stronger than the dollar? Well then…where is it? As investors we wait for it.