Easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil.. What does this have to do with Kurdistan region oil?
The United States recently eased Venezuelan oil sanctions after years of blockade, which opened the door for energy experts and specialized monitoring companies to provide their estimates about the effects of this easing on regional and global oil markets.
In this context, a detailed analytical report predicted a weak impact of the expected increase in oil productionVenezuelaOn global oil markets, after easing partial, temporary US sanctions for 6 months, subject to extension or cancellation.
The report, issued by the specialized company Energy Outlook Advisors , suggested that Venezuelan oil production would grow by no more than 200,000 barrels per day in the short term, and 400,000 barrels per day by the end of next summer of 2024, according to the Energy Research Unit.
Details of the politically conditional sanctions.
The easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions came within the framework of a political deal with the government of the current Venezuelan presidentNicolas Maduroleft-leaning party, to hold fair elections in which the American-leaning opposition participates in 2024
.Office of Foreign Assets Control, of the US Department of the Treasury (OFAC), 4 general authorizations to suspend certain sanctions imposed onVenezuelaAfter the success of the government and the opposition in signing the electoral road map agreement in 2024.
The duration of these licenses is 6 months, during which oil and gas transactions are allowed between the United States and...VenezuelaHowever, its renewal will remain dependent on the Madror government’s fulfillment of its political obligations towards the electoral road map, in addition to the release of detainees, according to a statement issued by the US Treasury Department on October 18, 2023. Some licenses allow dealing with the state oil company
inVenezuelaIt exports its oil to the United States, and also allows commercial dealings with the state-owned Venezuelan gold mining company, Minerven.
Some other licenses also provide for amending the secondary trading ban imposed on certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds, while remaining the ban on trading in the Venezuelan secondary bond market.
While some licenses stipulate amending the secondary trade ban imposed on dealing in the debt and shares of the Venezuelan state oil company, Petroleos DeVenezuelaSA (PdVSA).
Anticipation of the election schedule in November
. The US Treasury says that the goal of easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil and the trade in gold, bonds, and Venezuelan debt is to limit illegal activities in these sectors and prevent the ruling regime from benefiting from their revenues. These measures
can To succeed in limiting money flows to the government of President Maduro, but previous experiences indicate that theoretical sanctions on paper are usually applied differently in reality, and may not achieve their goals, and may even achieve opposite goals, directly or indirectly, as in the case of sanctions on... Russia, according to an analysis by Energy Outlook Advisors.
In any case, the Maduro government has until next November to set a final timetable for the elections expected in 2024, amid warnings from the US administration to reimpose some sanctions, if the government does not commit to setting The timetable is during the next month.
Despite these warnings and conditions in the decision to ease Venezuelan oil and other trade sanctions, the US administration may turn a blind eye to implementing some or all of them, due to its dire need to reach an agreement with the Maduro government at the present time, according to an analysis by Energy Outlook Advisors.
The easing was not related to events in the Middle East.
The move was to ease some of the sanctions imposed on...VenezuelaExpected since last year, it came as a result of long negotiations that have nothing to do with current events in the Middle East (Israeli attacks on Gaza).
The President's administration allowed itJoe BidenLast year, two European companies, the Italian Eni and the Spanish Repsol, exported Venezuelan oil to Europe, according to what was monitored by the Energy Research Unit.
As for the giant American company Chevron, it did not leaveVenezuelaDespite the Venezuelan oil sanctions imposed under former President Donald Trump, the company succeeded in obtaining exemptions from Trump as well as Biden.
The company obtained a license in November 2022 to produce Venezuelan oil and export it to the United States for a renewable period of 6 months.
*Dilution effect in the Venezuelan oil sector
needsVenezuelaThe company, which has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, relies on the expertise and technical capabilities enjoyed by international oil and service companies, which makes it in dire need of the expertise of companies such as Chevron and Schlumberger International Oilfield Services (SLB).
The Venezuelan oil sector also needs urgent foreign investment, after years of lack of investment, poor maintenance, and the flight of personnel and technical expertise to work abroad, which led to a sharp decline in its production of crude and condensates over the past two decades.
Venezuelan oil production has declined significantly over the past two decades, from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2000 to 735,000 barrels per day in September 2023.
Venezuelan Oil and Liquids Production
The Venezuelan oil industry is in dire need of some diluents known as natural gasoline, symbolized by ( C5), to be mixed with its heavy crude so that it can be transported or exported via pipelines and tankers.
It is expected that the easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions will facilitate the entry of diluents into the countryVenezuelaIn the short term, this will benefit US shale oil producers.
Energy Outlook Advisors estimates the volume of diluents that US producers can export toVenezuelaNot to exceed 125 thousand barrels per day in the short term, which is a relatively small amount that is expected to double depending on developments in sanctions and the political deal concluded with the Maduro government.
Some American refineries need heavy Venezuelan crude, especially refineries located on the American Gulf Coast, due to the nature of their superior technical capabilities suitable for refining and processing heavy types of oil.VenezuelaAnd other countries of the world.
If mitigating materials are availableVenezuelaIt can add 300 to 400 thousand barrels per day within weeks, then production will stabilize for several months until the results of new investments and the participation of major oil services companies begin, and their effects will be partially reflected in the increase in production, according to a previous report issued by Energy Outlook Advisors in 2022.
*Production booms take 3 years.
Increasing production in large quantities, reaching one million barrels per day, takes at least 3 years, based on a review of the experiences of 6 oil-producing countries that suffered from political instability and sanctions, according to an Energy Outlook analysis.
The American company Chevron has succeeded in adding 200,000 barrels per day to the total Venezuelan oil production at the present time, and it is expected to increase by another 100,000 barrels only in the short term, and it is expected that most of these additions will go to export.
If the political deal concluded with the president goes wellNicolas MaduroThe election dates have been set for 2024, and the United States is expected to renew the licenses for another six months.
This extension will allow major oil services companies, such as the American Schlumberger SLB, to increase Venezuelan oil production by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of the summer of 2024, that is, immediately before the US presidential elections, most of which will likely be exported to America.
Venezuelan oil exports to the United States
and Energy Outlook Advisors doubts a full political solution will be reached in...VenezuelaThe American party is satisfied, but it believes that the Biden administration will turn a blind eye to any electoral violations or human rights violations in exchange for the continuation of the agreement.
Accordingly, Venezuelan oil production and exports will see significant increases even if the government does not meet the conditions set by the Biden administration and the US Treasury Department in the sanctions relief statement, issued on October 18, 2023. If the US-leaning Venezuelan opposition wins the elections, it may find itself
facing Strong internal opposition due to declared American support, and what may result in distorting its reputation and questioning the extent of its independence in running the country away from American tutelage, in addition to describing it as treason, because it came to power under very clear and frank American pressure.
The opposition will also face another crisis related to the lack of technical expertise and the flight of personnel from the state oil company after the late leftist president Hugo Chavir expelled many of them during the period from 2002 to 2003, which forced a large number of experts and engineers to leave.VenezuelaTo work in Colombia and the Middle East.
What is the relationship with Kurdistan oil?
Based on these factors, Energy Outlook Advisors does not expect a rapid boom in Venezuelan oil production in the medium or long term, but increases will remain limited and slow.
The company also expects a limited impact of any potential production increases on global oil markets and prices, due to the expected increase in global demand during the next few years, which makes any increase in productionVenezuelaLimited and narrow impact.
But on the other hand, increasing heavy oil production in...VenezuelaTo alleviate the tightness of the global medium sour oil market, especially if exports from the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq remain outside the market, according to the analysis.
At the local level, the Venezuelan government’s revenues from oil exports are expected to recover, and this may stimulate the exhausted economy and lead to an increase in domestic oil consumption in the coming years, and may push the government to direct most of the productivity increases to domestic consumption instead of international markets.
Canadian oil is the first victim
Canadian oil appears to be the first victim affected by the easing of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil, amid expectations of an increase in US oil imports.VenezuelaAt the expense of neighboring Canadian oil.
It is expected that the price differences between American and Canadian oil crudes will increase with the increase in US imports of Venezuelan oil, but these risks could subside once a pipeline is operational.Trans MountainWhich is strongly supported by the Canadian government.
Some American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico region fear that they will be negatively affected if Canada begins exporting its oil through a pipeline.Trans Mountain, amid expectations that this will lead to a decrease in the volumes of Canadian oil exports to America and an increase in its prices, according to an Energy Outlook analysis.
Based on this, these refineries see imports from...VenezuelaIt became a necessity as Canada rushed to build the line and wanted to get it up and running as quickly as possible.
Canada's ambitions to diversify its crude oil exports to countries other than the United States appear to be limited by the extent of its ability to increase production from the main province of Alberta, the prices of crude oil in Asia, the extent of its ability to compete with discounted Russian and Iranian crude oils to Asia, and the prices of Saudi Aramco.
Based on this, Energy Outlook Advisors expects Canadian oil exports to the United States to be affected by the thaw in US-Venezuelan relations and the increase in Venezuelan production, and the subsequent increase in exports to America.
It should be noted thatVenezuelaCrude oil was exported to several countries other than the United States, most notably neighboring Cuba, Spain, China and other countries, and was often accused of exporting through back doors, such as Iran and Russia. Source: link
