I wrapped up this week talking about all the progress that has been made. What has been done since January. Big things like joining the World Trade organization as an observer status...which has been ongoing since 2004...in February to August we see they are gearing up for full ascension to the WTO and this is a big deal. They will be out in the world economy again and in the global financial system.
My understanding is they have the security and stability in the country…enough that we can see all the countries making deals and doing things with Iraq. …Iraq is going to make a lot of money...once they have an article 8 exchange rate …that is required...For full ascension…all of us will have a different venue in a short period of time.
Iraq is ready to go international. What we're hoping and praying for is they show us an Article VIII compliant exchange rate and show us their new currency they're going to be using in the near future. I think those new small category notes that were printed back in 2018 need to get exposed to the world...
It hasn't been their job to tell us everything. It's because we're outsiders. It's their country and they keep it to themselves as best as they possibly can. We should be able to understand that that's a big component of this whole process...
Shafaq News/ The potential expansion of the Brics group of developing nations to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia has raised more questions about the future of the US dollar's dominance of global energy trade.
The addition of the new members would increase Brics' share of global oil production to 42% from 20%. But while interest in a system that doesn't rely on the dollar may be growing, it is likely years away from being viable — and unseating the dollar's dominance of energy trade could be particularly difficult.
Western sanctions on Russia have already given impetus to the trend, with India settling trades in UAE dirhams, Chinese yuan and, to a lesser extent, local rupees to avoid Indian banks’ concerns about dollar transactions. Pakistan has also settled deals in yuan, and India bought 1 million barrels of crude from the UAE settled in rupees. There has also been speculation that Saudi Arabia could increasingly switch to non-dollar currencies for its huge oil trade — although signs so far are that Riyadh will proceed cautiously.
Given Brics ambitions to “de-dollarize” their growing bilateral trade flows, the “Bricspansion” — as former Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Pozsar coins it — could increase the odds of emulation. Certainly, more are considering non-dollar payment options. Some like China, Russia and India are testing their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), with a view to joining the mBridge project, sometimes dubbed “Brics coin.”
This new payment system — backed by of China, the UAE, Thailand and Hong Kong — aims to create a digital network of corresponding central banks that does not run through the global dollar system.
Sweeping Western sanctions against Russia, particularly the freezing of central bank reserves, have prompted other countries to look at ways of immunizing themselves from such threats. Yet many still hold assets and reserves in US dollars, for lack of viable alternatives.
There’s much talk about the yuan as an alternative currency given the size of the Chinese economy and volume of Chinese trade. Beijing has sought a more internationalized yuan for years, but keeps balking at the trade-offs involved, notably the surrender of capital control. For now, the yuan is largely used for trade between China and counterparties, not in trades between other countries.
The Saudi and the UAE currencies are also pegged to the dollar, limiting their flexibility — holding large volumes of yuan would complicate that peg.
US sanctions have had a more practical impact, forcing both Russia and Iran — existing and potential Brics members, respectively — to shift to alternative currencies for oil trade. Trades are still priced in dollars, but transactions are then converted and settled in other currencies.
China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil at the moment and is reportedly paying for it in yuan. Russia is also accepting payment in Chinese yuan, which, unlike the Indian rupee, is fully convertible to gold. Other steps toward yuan-denominated energy trade have been limited. Two yuan-settled LNG deals with China have involved TotalEnergies and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., again seemingly converted from the dollar.
Russia's booming oil trade with India also faces currency hurdles that Brics expansion doesn't have an answer for: Russia does not want an influx of rupees, and India is reluctant to trade in yuan, the currency of its regional rival.
Another 14 countries have applied for Brics membership, including oil and gas producers like Algeria, Kazakhstan and Kuwait, potentially providing further momentum to de-dollarization efforts. However, the dollar's position in the oil trade is deeply embedded — hedging, for instance, revolves around the dollar, and alternative hedging mechanisms like in China are in embryonic stages. Still, even if alternative currency deals develop only on the margin, the CBDCs pushed by Brics central banks could lead to a more fragmented and opaque oil market, and creeping regional displacements of the US dollar over time. Argentina, for one, is changing its trade invoicing with China from US dollars to yuan, for example. The yuan became the most widely used currency for cross-border transactions in China in March, overtaking the dollar for the first time. But if Beijing is not willing to liberalize its financial system, it will limit the confidence and ability of other countries to use the yuan more widely in such transactions.
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
MZ: Happy Labor day folks. I am back in the states for a week
Member: An RV would really make it a happy Labor Day
Member: Hoping your holiday weekend has been a good one….and there is some good news today.
Member: Is this our week????
MZ: There is certainly a lot of chatter saying it could be this week.
MZ: The rumors are thick that the money is moving and started over this weekend. But, I cannot find anybody with that money in their pockets yet.
MZ: I have received a lot of messages from a lot of people in positions and places that are saying “we are done” and it’s happening now….I guess we will find out throughout the day today and by tomorrow if things have moved or not.
MZ: Many of my banking contacts are not working today. I do have a physical get together with one of my contacts later today. I am pretty excited about that one.
MZ: Redemption center folks did work a few hours yesterday….mostly logistics stuff. Maybe this was just to keep them in town?? On purpose and just in case? But they are not working today.
Member: Some are saying Bond holders are supposedly going under or are already under NDAs
Member: Go RV ……all eyes on Iraq.
MZ: My Iraqi contacts are hesitantly excited with expectations for this week. There are more and more confirmations that the government is using that 1132 rate with contractors right now. I feel pretty confident the CBI is starting to make moves. They have said before they would stabilize at that rate and then give us the big change we are looking for .
MZ: We just need to wait and see what pops out of all this. The chatter is overwhelming right now that things have finished. I will believe it when we can spend it.
Member: I read that there were uprisings in Iraq about payments??
Member: From MM last nite : Rashid Bank to electronically pay salaries + retirees in Erbil. MM has a sneaking suspicions its not going to be @130 to 1
Member: MIlitia Man said Iraq is 2 months behind paying salarys and will be issueing chks this week at the new rate he believes. Thats why they didm,t pay yet
MZ: I am hearing that as well from contacts on the ground in Iraq. This is one of the things that make them think this is the week.
Member: Iraqi people are in Holiday until Friday. Government could be working behind the scene
Member: The 10 year treasury is on course for a third consecutive loss , something that has not occurred once in the 250 year history of the Republic in 1776
MZ: Yes the bond market is inverted, twisted and messed up. Fundamentals say it should implode now.
Member: News sounds amazing and good, but until we actually get notifications it's all just chatter. Stay grounded and hopefully this will be our week.
Member: it’s time to get this show on the road. Saddle up.
Member: looks like it’s lining up to be a good week
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Sudanese Advisor: The Ownership Of The Railway Link Project Will Be 100% For Iraq
Information/Baghdad… Adviser to the Prime Minister for Transportation Affairs, Nasser Al-Asadi, confirmed today, Monday, that the ownership of the railway link project with Iran will be 100% in favor of Iraq.
Al-Asadi said in a televised interview, followed by Al-Maalouma Agency, that “the railway link agreement with Iran stipulates the transportation of passengers only,” pointing out that “the completion of the rehabilitation and development of the Shalamcheh crossing has become an urgent need.”
He added, “There are no secrets related to the railway link project with Iran,” noting that “the workforce in the project will be 100% Iraqi.”
And the Prime Minister’s Adviser for Transportation Affairs continued, “We do not know the reasons for the sensitivity of the railway link project with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”LINK
About $200 Million In Cash Sales Today From The Iraqi Central Bank
2023-09-04 Shafaq News/ The Central Bank of Iraq’s sales amounted to about 200 million dollars in the currency auction today, Monday.
Shafaq News Agency reporter stated that the Central Bank sold today, during its auction for buying and selling US dollars, 197 million, 727 thousand and 483 dollars, which the bank covered at a basic exchange rate of 1,305 dinars, per dollar for documentary credits and international settlements of electronic cards, and at a price of 1,310 dinars per dollar for external transfers. Same price in cash.
Our correspondent added that most of the dollar sales went to enhance the balances abroad in the form of (remittances, credits), which amounted to 172 million 357 thousand and 483 dollars, while cash sales amounted to 25 million and 370 thousand dollars.
Our correspondent indicated that the number of banks that bought the cash dollar amounted to 7, while the number of banks that responded to requests for strengthening balances abroad reached 20, while the total number of exchange and mediation companies participating in the auction was 89 companies. LINK
[via PDK] The WTO is big and it’s been percolating in the back since January. My sources told me years ago that when we saw them join the WTO- then it was done. They would have to be fully international for that.
via PDK] ...with the extended holiday this week between now and Thursday the indicators seem to be really coming together. We see that 1132 rate all the time behind the scenes...but the CBI has a different rate that is published.
[via PDK] Redemption folks working a few short hours tomorrow. That does not mean we are redeeming this weekend…but it’s a good sign... We continue to get good news from Iraq…They are on a holiday from now until Thursday. This would give them a tremendous opportunity …
and a lot of chatter in Iraq that they are going to take this opportunity this week to put things into place...Many indicators from Iraq about next week.
Pimpy
Somebody reached out to me and said, 'Pimpy what do you think of this [Ebay] deal?' For $37 you get 5,000 dinar...5,000 dinar is equal to what? $3.80. Don't get caught up or trapped in that kind of thing. Make sure when you're buying dinars you're not spending a ridiculous amount of money higher than the actual value...
Article: "Record number of new firms seen in eight months" This is great news for Vietnam, their economy as well as their currency. As long as the economy continues to get strong we will see the exchange rate increase over the US dollar.