Tuesday, August 15, 2023
"In This Market, Patience Is A Virtue", 15 AUGUST
We live in an instantaneous world, where we expect to see results from almost everything immediately, but in trading, and even more so investing, there are times when patience is required, times when doing nothing is your best option. We are in one such time now. Stocks, after a strong run up since the beginning of the year, are drifting lower. It is not a big enough move to prompt drastic action, but with the S&P 500 having retraced just over three percent from its July 27 high, it will be tempting a lot of people who took profits on the way up with a view to buying on a dip to deploy some cash. Similarly, there will be some people who have stayed fully invested and, fearful of seeing all that lovely profit dribble away, will be tempted to bank some cash.
Neither of those things are wrong per se. Putting cash to work is what investors do, so an argument can be made that from a long-term perspective, you are never wrong to do that on a pullback. On the other side of the coin, every trader has been told at some point that taking a profit is never a bad thing to do. The thing is, though, the very fact that both seem like perfectly logical actions in the current environment tells you that neither is really smart.
The problem is that there is no way of knowing at this point whether what we are seeing is just a normal consolidation that will enable another move up, or an actual trend reversal.
It could easily be the former. Inflation data of all kinds is moderating, signaling an end to rate hikes before too long and even a policy reversal and rate cuts before too long. That is what the economists at Goldman Sachs (GS) concluded in a report released yesterday, and if that is the case what we have seen so far this year is just the beginning.
But -- and it is a big but -- the full impact of rate hikes is not usually felt in the economy for at least a couple of quarters and there is still a good chance that a significant slowdown is coming before this year ends. There are certainly signs of that in slowing job growth and plenty of anecdotal evidence of cutbacks.
For now, the market is seeing that only through the lens of interest rates, making a slowdown a good thing. Anybody who traded through the boom and bust cycles of the eighties, though, as I did, will tell you to be careful what you wish for. I would like to think that the understanding of the economy and the tools available to central bankers at this point are so much better than forty years ago that this scenario can be avoided, but that is something that has yet to be proven.
“Sit on your hands” is unsatisfying advice to give, but it is also often pointless. Those who listen tend to be those who manage their accounts actively, and they are predisposed to do something, no matter what. If that sounds like you, then the trick at a time like this is to fool yourself. Yes, go ahead and do something, but not anything that will seriously alter your portfolio. Maybe take a small, short-term position in something that will benefit if the market does continue lower, such as an inverse leveraged ETF or, if you think a bounce is coming, try the reverse, buying a small amount of a leveraged bull product or a vey volatile stock that will exaggerate gains.
If you do that, though, understand that such positions are short-term in nature and that you are basically doing something for the sake of doing something. As things sit, it is almost impossible to have a strong view of what the next few months will bring, which is why economists and analysts at major institutions keep changing their views and why financial media is full of silly season stories like the hype around a cage fight between two nerds. When that passes for financial news, it is not a time to make any big decisions.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/in-this-market-patience-is-a-virtue
"STATUS OF THE RV" BY MNT GOAT, 15 AUGUST
TODAY, SATURDAY (AUGUST 12, 2023), FINANCE MINISTER TAIF SAMI ARRIVED AT THE IRAQI PARLIAMENT BUILDING.
The correspondent of “Baghdad Today” said, “The Minister of Finance, arrived a short while ago at the parliament headquarters, to answer the oral question asked by Representative Hadi Al-Salami about automating the customs system and collecting tax revenues.”
Earlier in the day, Interior Minister Abdul Amir Al-Shammari arrived at the parliament building.
It is scheduled that the Parliament session, which will be held today, will include a verbal question to the Minister of Interior, and another to the Minister of Finance, in addition to other items on the agenda.
Today, Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi inaugurated the work of the 8th parliament session of the fifth electoral session / the second legislative year / the second legislative term.
(We have been told in past articles that these customs and tariffs (taxes) systems will not work unless they are tied to the FOREX in order to translate rates of foreign currencies to the currency of the dinar at the time paid. They have talked about this system for a decade now. Will they be able to do it now? So why have they not yet done it? You know the answer… 😊 )
More news….
DIRECTORS OF GOVERNMENT BANKS ARE LOOKING TO CHANGE BANKING SYSTEMS IN IRAQ
Directors of government banks discussed, on Sunday, changing the Iraqi banking systems.
And the Rafidain Bank stated, in a statement received by IQ NEWS, that the Director of the Rafidain Bank, Maher Hussein Rashid, chaired today a meeting in the general administration of the bank, which included the Director General of the Legal Department in the Ministry of Finance, Muhammad Hamza Mustafa, and the directors of some government banks, in the presence of representatives of the Central Bank of Iraq.
The Director General of Al-Rafidain Bank stressed that “the goal of changing the internal regulations of government banks is to open broader horizons for the bank’s dealings internally and externally, and to introduce modern electronic systems and automation within the framework of institutional governance and drawing up financial policy in the country and benefiting from technologies that contribute to the speedy completion of transactions and their development in a way that serves the interest of the bank and its customers.”
The meeting witnessed, according to the statement, “opening the door for discussions and interventions aimed at addressing the gaps related to the draft bylaw for government banks and keeping pace with international banking updates.”
More news….
AL-NUSAIRI: THE BATTLE FOR THE STABILITY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE WITH SPECULATORS IN THE BLACK MARKET WILL END WITH THE RECOVERY OF THE DINAR
Samir Al-Nusairi, advisor to the Association of Iraqi Private Banks, confirmed today, Monday, that the battle led by the government and the central bank with speculators to control the stability of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar on the black market will end with the gradual recovery of the dinar and that the rise in the exchange rate is temporary, and will inevitably decrease back to the target rate of the central bank in Iraq.
Al-Nusairi said in an interview with “Al-Iqtisad News”, that “one of the most prominent reasons for the rise in the dollar is the news of depriving 14 banks of dealing in US dollars and what the big speculators did in withdrawing cash dollars and the manipulation of unauthorized exchanges with exchange rates.” In addition, some small retailers did not enter the electronic platform for external transfer.
And he added, “Some media outlets and analysts exacerbated the confusion of the market by amplifying unreal and incomplete data and information, as well as websites and microbes that announce daily the exchange rate on the black market despite the warnings of the Central Bank.
And he continued, “The Central Bank is working to diagnose and study the causes and obstacles to entering the electronic platform, delaying some transfers, and setting up procedures that facilitate merchants’ conduct of their business smoothly and easily, and taking possible flexibility to accelerate external transfers in banks, the Central Bank, and in the relevant international banking agencies.”
Al-Nusairi noted that “the measures will inevitably result in a decrease in the exchange rate on the black market for the illegal dollar, and that the Central Bank is currently working on adopting new mechanisms and work contexts to control monetary stability, and their results will appear soon.”
We urge all government agencies, wholesalers, and businessmen to support the Iraqi dinar and deal with it in all local monetary activities and transactions, as it is strong and covered by foreign monetary reserves that exceed $113 billion, and that its purchasing power is gradually recovering. In addition to being an essential pillar of national sovereignty .
More news….
STATUS OF THE RV
If you are sincere about learning about your investment in the dinar than you should take the time today to read all the articles of today’s Newsletter blog and especially my comments within them.
More Clarification on intel guru rumors-
I find it very funny how the worst intel gurus out there have the nerve to make fun of others trying to bring the TRUTH. With sarcasm they call those trying to sincerely help “gurus” to put them down as this term to me is condescending to anyone in this field of honest information.
To me it has come to mean mindless idiots just lying to you trying to make money off anything they can, even if fake intel. Yes, they are the gurus I refer to. You know them well – Frank26, TNT, Bruce, MarkZ, and all the other parrots out there who just get a YouTube or conference call and repeat what nonsense others have said. They need the clickity clicks to make there YouTube money. They think they are helping but in actuality they are just perpetuating all the stupid rumors. Yes, how many times have we heard already the RV has taken place?
So, today I first want to clarify yet more rumors started by these idiot intel gurus. This one mainly from this idiot TNT Tony. No, the deal with Iran and prisoner exchange has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with Iraq and is not going to spark the RV. Get it? I can assure you of this. Although it may sould plausible it is not true. These are the kind of rumors someone makes up and then other suck them up because they do sound so plausible. But fantasy is still fantasy. Get it through your thick head and read my lips – “It is all FAKE news” told by some idiot and then spread around by others.
Why does anyone believe such nonsense?
If the IMF, US and everyone else was onboard for the RV to go, it would go…period! Nothing would stop it. Get it? Nothing would stop it! 😊
Don’t you think the CBI would know if this recent rumor was true?
So, on Saturday I called my Iraqi contact in the CBI and was told they have not heard anything about it. Noone told them. Don’t you think they at least should know…lol..lol..lol? 😊 TNT Tony strikes again…lol..lol..lol… 😊
I also want to remind everyone again that when they do decide RV they must follow “the process” already set up to do it as I was told in 2011 by Dr Shabibi. Also just look at all the other past rate changes and how article after article came out afterwards telling us about them. This is what will happen again. Folks the RV, when it happens, will NOT be a secret. Get it? It will be sudden and swift.
In summary the process begins in Iraq with the project to delete the zeros. Once they complete this project they must wait and watch for inflation (1 -2 weeks), then if all goes well, they will trigger the reinstatement to FOREX. So, I am told right now we are waiting for yet one more rate change from the 1320 to around 1000. I think more like 1100ish, 1166ish. Have we had that yet? The rate of 1320 is very close to it and they only have to go to about a 200 deviation.
So here is part of the recent article that came out that they base this rumor on and I quote- “Washington will allow the transfer of nearly $6 billion of Iran’s assets in South Korea to an account in the central bank of Qatar where Iran can use them for purchases of food and medicine. They said the US will also release several Iranian prisoners as part of the deal which will see Iran free five American prisoners.” Full article is in the articles section of today’s newsletter.
So, what these idiot intel gurus did was take this information and got creative. They basically made up a story knowing damn well they were lying to you that this would trigger the RV. Either that or they are mantally retarded. Here we sit and its Tuesday. Where is this “over the weekend” RV?
What else is in the news? Let’s talk reality! 😊
A member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Muhammad Nuri, on Saturday accused the CBI of the failure to control the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar. See full article in the article section of today’s newsletter.
The daily auction amounts are still over 200 (220-250) and should be around only 150 only to support the economy, so we have been told. Okay so first I ask – why are they including these extra expenses like tuition, travel money, etc into this currency auction amount when they DO NOT go through the electronic system? Why can’t they break them out to get a stronger handle on them.
Next it is so obvious these dollars are not in fact being used for the intended purposes such as tuition, travel money, etc. and it getting in the hands of the illegal black market money exchangers who make up the so-called parallel market. Yes, th receivers of these dollars get them at 1320, then mark them up and sell them to the parallel market. They then mark them up again and this is why the parallel market rate stays so high (1500-1700). This is why they have a difficult time managing it. These are the guys forcing the rate of the dollar (inside Iraq) to stay high and dinar to stay lower. I quote from one of today’s articles – “ The gateway to smuggling currency is still continuing by the parties and their banks, with the increase in the sale of the dollar by the Central Bank of Iraq.”
So today I want to present to the CBI an easy solution to this situation. This solution is so obvious I keep asking myself why hasn’t the CBI itself already done it. Do they support the corruption or what?
SOLUTION: NO! The RV is NOT the solution to all their problems….lol..lol..lol.. Please stop this kind of thinking. Eventually the CBI will learn to use only EBT cards to fund these types of expenditures. WOW! That was easy.
These EBT cards MUST not be redeemable for cash and can be used ONLY like a debit card. They must be issued by the banks in place of cash. When a purchase is made, the purchase comes through the system only at the CBI official rate of the dinar at 1320 or whatever it is. Oh…did I just give you a solution? Why can’t the CBI see it? I have told this solution to my CBI contact in Iraq. I hope they run with it? Let’s see how this idea pans out. 😊)
But there are other issues too as to the leaking of dollars into the black market (parallel market) and there is a very good article today that explains the situation well. See article section.
The CBI must control the stability of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar on the black market. This is key to the next rate change they have to make to get the rate down to where they need it to around 1000. Remember in 2012 DR Shabibi had it at 1166 when he had the green light to reinstate. So is this close to their target? If it is then they are only about 200 away from it. So they are telling us with the budget implementation and other clean up measures (or reforms) on the dollar will end the dollar in Iraq and will result in and I quote from the article – “a gradual recovery of the dinar and that the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar is temporary, and will inevitably decrease back to the target rate of the central bank in Iraq.”
I think they mean back-on-track to obtaining their “target rate”? Their words not mine. So there is a target rate of the dinar they are still aiming for and the 1320 is not the end to the saga. More proof to my readers there is another change to the official CBI rate of the dinar coming. We should see this target rate obtained soon if these new measures work.
These are the key factors that I see the CBI aiming for:
- Currency Auctions for sale of dollars to match needed imports S/B about 150 million per day, REDUCE DOWN FROM 220-250 MILLION PER DAY;
- One more rate change, probably to around just over or under 1000 depending on how good their reforms work. The closer or over 1000 the better.
- Regaining their full sovereignty with the US banks since Iraqi is legally and fully out of UN Chapter VII. The pressure continues and will not end until they get their way;
- The release of all US combat troops from Iraq. Combat troops masquerading as advisors or trainers are still combat troops.
- Announce the full accession of Iraq to the WTO
Some of these so-called intel gurus are also telling you that Iraq must first somehow get the cash of 3 zero notes out from under the mattresses and for the people to use the banks prior to the RV happening. Hello…..this is banking reforms 101! Over 70 trillion dinars are in circulation in Iraq and the banks need this cash to loan out. The CBI already told us they are NOT going to print more paper money. This will cause yet more inflation. So, you can see the importance it has on the economy. That is my point – this is impportant NOT about collecting the 3 zero notes so the RV can happen….how silly and sad to think this even.
😊 So, I bring up this point today because there is a VERY, VERY GOOD article in the Articles Section about this subject matter. So, let’s clarify this once and for all. We can clearly see the Pillars of the Financial Reform that still need to be completed in this article. It is the last article and I encourage everyone to please go read it and maybe you can shake some of this stupidity and fake guru talk out of your head.
"New Strong Buy Stocks for August 15th", 15 AUGUST
Here are five stocks added to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) List today:
Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY - Free Report) : This healthcare services company, has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 31.5% over the last 60 days.
Surgery Partners, Inc. Price and Consensus
Surgery Partners, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Surgery Partners, Inc. Quote
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH - Free Report) : This homebuilding company, has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 12.2% over the last 60 days.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. Price and Consensus
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Dream Finders Homes, Inc. Quote
Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE - Free Report) : This company which is a manufacturer and distributer of safety and survivability equipment for first responders, has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 9.5% over the last 60 days.
Cadre Holdings, Inc. Price and Consensus
Cadre Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Cadre Holdings, Inc. Quote
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI - Free Report) : This company which is one of the leading national homebuilders, primarily engaged in the construction and sale of single-family houses both in the entry-level and move-up markets, has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 9.1% over the last 60 days.
D.R. Horton, Inc. Price and Consensus
D.R. Horton, Inc. price-consensus-chart | D.R. Horton, Inc. Quote
KB Financial Group Inc. (KB - Free Report) : This commercial bank in Korea which provides credit and related financial services to individuals and small and medium sized enterprises and, to a lesser extent, to large corporate customers, has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 9% over the last 60 days.
KB Financial Group Inc Price and Consensus
