Government Advisor: The Current Economic Recession Is Seasonal And Will Subside With The Revitalization Of Public Spending.
Time: 2026/01/16 14:04:49 {Economic: Al-Furat News} The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, confirmed on Friday that markets are experiencing a seasonal recession globally and locally at the beginning of each calendar year, while pointing to the factors affecting the stability of the exchange rate in light of the current regional conditions.
Saleh told Al-Furat News Agency, “At the beginning of each calendar year, markets experience a seasonal recession following the peak of purchases that precedes Christmas, a pattern known in international economic trends.” He explained that “this recession is clearly reflected in our country in consumption indicators, which tend to decline temporarily as a result of the partial depletion of income at the end of the year and the onset of the winter season.”
He added that “individuals and the private sector are anticipating trends in government spending and fiscal policy at the start of the new year, which coincides with a slowdown in the circulation of liquidity within the markets, as households and traders tend to hold onto cash while awaiting clarity on the financial outlook, especially in light of the delay in approving or activating the general budget.”
Saleh explained that "the transition of the executive authority from a caretaker status to exercising its full powers also affects this vision," noting that "the slowdown in liquidity leads to a temporary contraction in aggregate demand, which deepens the seasonal recession."
The financial advisor explained that "this recession often relieves pressure on consumer demand for foreign currency, leading to relative stability in the unofficial exchange rate, as long as external government spending and trade transfers have not yet entered their active phase."
Saleh warned that "this stability is being disrupted by noise in the information market, making it fragile and sensitive to the effects of regional geopolitics, which are exposed to strategic risks and fluctuating expectations in a highly sensitive environment."
He added that "this recession will begin to gradually recede with the revitalization of public spending, the acceleration of budget implementation, and the increase in liquidity turnover, which will re-stimulate consumption and increase commercial demand for foreign currency from its official sources, within limits that monetary policy can manage."
Saleh concluded by saying that "the improvement in consumption, liquidity and exchange market indicators together constitutes an early sign of the end of the seasonal recession and the entry of markets into a phase of gradual recovery." LINK
