"Energy Security In The Gulf: An Existential Threat To Iraq"
Economy News — Baghdad Head of the Iraq Energy Center, Dr. Furat Al-Moussawi In the geopolitics of energy, no region is more fragile than the Arabian Gulf, and no country more vulnerable than Iraq. Producing more than 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, Iraq has no export outlet other than the Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian Gulf.
This corridor, through which more than 21 million barrels of oil pass daily, equivalent to 20% of global oil trade, turns in a moment of tension or war into an arena that threatens not only the global economy, but also the financial and service existence of Iraq.
Past experience has shown that any disruption in the Gulf raises oil prices by $10–15 per barrel within a few days. While this might seem like an opportunity to increase revenues, Iraq remains at the mercy of a complex equation: high prices are countered by the risk of a complete halt to exports if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, which would mean a collapse in revenues that constitute more than 90% of the general budget.
The most dangerous aspect is that Iraq relies on Iranian gas to operate more than 40% of its national power plants, making any military confrontation between Washington and Tehran a double threat: a financial deficit due to the cessation of exports, and a severe electricity crisis due to the halt in supplies.
This structural fragility reveals that Iraq is not merely a collateral victim of regional crises, but rather the weakest link in the global energy security equation.
While global markets may absorb price increases by diversifying supply chains, Iraq remains without alternatives: no export pipelines outside the Gulf, no ability to replace imported gas, and no electricity grid independent of foreign sources. Thus, any tension in the Strait of Hormuz becomes a direct threat to the state's financial and service-related survival.
A US strike on Iran could trigger a global energy crisis, but in Iraq it would turn into an existential crisis, halting oil exports, collapsing revenues, and causing power outages.
Whoever tampers with the Strait of Hormuz is tampering with the fate of Iraq before tampering with the fate of the global economy. https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=64597
