KTFA
FRANK26: "SECURITY & STABILITY IN IRAQ BECAUSE THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE HAS BEEN CUT OFF.".....F26
3/9/2025
An extensive analytical report by the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, published in London, quoted American diplomats who had just returned from Baghdad, stating that the Donald Trump administration is reviewing the situation and may issue “unusual” sanctions on Iraq, but in “doses similar to chemotherapy.” It also quoted political sources in the Coordination Framework, saying that discussions and disagreements have reached the point of “cutting off communication” in recent days between Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani, the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, and others from the Shiite alliance, reflecting a difference in opinion on how to deal with “maximum” American pressure and the almost unstoppable transformations across the region.
A report by the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, followed by 964 Network :
Two US diplomats said that "comprehensive, in batches" sanctions will be imposed on entities and individuals in Iraqi government and political bodies and factions, while sources confirmed that "communication has become almost non-existent" between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and two prominent leaders in the ruling coalition, in light of the state of uncertainty that prevails in the country.
There has been endless speculation in Baghdad about the new American policy, since President Donald Trump arrived in the White House and promised Iran a strong campaign against its influence in the region.
An American diplomat, who preferred to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said, “Economic sanctions are expected to be imposed successively on Iraqi groups, based on the National Security Presidential Memorandum NSPM2.”
Trump signed the memorandum on February 4, 2025, to impose “maximum pressure on Iran and counter its malign influence.”
The US diplomat explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the sanctions will target individuals and entities that provided facilities or illegal commercial activities and resources to Iran,” and he pointed out that “the categories that will be included in the sanctions may be government institutions or political or armed entities.”
American institutions concerned with implementing Trump's memorandum are monitoring a wide network of Iraqi activities linked to Iran, including even small commercial interests. The diplomat said: "The classification may extend to checkpoints used by Iranian agents to collect money."
The sanctions will not take into account the “referent entities” of those included, whether they are government cover, the “Popular Mobilization Forces,” or armed factions, due to the adoption of criteria included in President Trump’s memorandum, according to the diplomat.
Trump's memorandum calls for "a robust and sustained campaign to enforce sanctions that deny Iran's proxies access to revenue" to ensure that Iran does not use the Iraqi financial system to evade or circumvent sanctions.
The diplomat said: “Among the foreseeable possibilities is that the United States will review the reduction of the vital cash payments to the Central Bank of Iraq on a monthly basis from its account in the US Federal Reserve, and make them appropriate to the national need, to ensure that the surplus is not transferred to parties and entities in Iran.”
However, the diplomat stressed that "this option is subject to various considerations, including Baghdad's commitment to a non-circuitous method of financial reform."
A second American diplomat, who had recently returned from the capital, Baghdad, said that “the sanctions under consideration are not aimed at undermining the political system in Iraq, but rather at eradicating the network of Iranian interests in the country.”
The diplomat expressed his hope that “the sanctions will help the Iraqis demonstrate their ability to manage the country more independently,” but he did not rule out “the risks of competition from those involved in Iranian interests after the resources dry up.”
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, the American diplomat likened the sanctions to “successive, intensive doses of chemotherapy for a body afflicted with cancerous tumors.” He said, “The treatment may take time, and we hope that the infection is not at a late stage.”
The diplomat explained that “the security and financial institutions in the US administration are facing a comprehensive list whose beginning can be known, but where it will end is not clear.” He said: “We must ensure that batches of sanctions will ultimately lead to cutting off the arms that are deep in the country’s financial system.”
The two American officials refused to disclose the date of the sanctions, and Iraqi officials in the Prime Minister’s Office did not respond to Asharq Al-Awsat’s request for comment.
The threat of sanctions may be a “maneuver led by the Trump administration to force Iran to negotiate,” or “to force Iraqi leaders to make radical changes,” as international relations experts suggest.
Aqeel Abbas, an expert on American affairs, said, “The sanctions against dozens of entities and individuals in Iraq are a serious matter, and what might prevent them is Iran’s acceptance of a peaceful deal through which it gives up nuclear weapons and its influence in the region.”
Abbas added: "At most, the Trump administration wants Iran to abandon its project in the region by mutual consent."
Coordination Framework Ship
Over the past week, Iraqi politicians have been making public statements about US sanctions, suggesting they will likely come “after Ramadan,” while leaders in the Coordination Framework have refused to make concessions to Washington “at the expense of Iraqi interests,” as they put it.
There is uncertainty within the “Coordination Framework,” the ruling coalition that includes influential Shiite forces, due to the lack of political consensus on how to deal with the changes in the Middle East and adapt to American policy against Iran.
Reliable sources said, "Many indicators show the disintegration of the ruling equation that brought together the forces of the (Coordination Framework) in the government of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani."
The sources revealed that communication between al-Sudani and two prominent leaders in the ruling coalition “has become almost non-existent.” They said: “For weeks, the usual channels of communication between al-Sudani, Nouri al-Maliki and Qais Khazali, two prominent leaders in the “Coordination Framework,” have largely disappeared.”
It is customary for the Prime Minister to exchange views and messages with the ruling coalition parties on political issues and files through accredited representatives, but this channel is almost non-functional between these parties.
It is not clear if the lack of communication is related to the climate of anxiety over US sanctions, but the sources indicated that “the Coordination Framework is no longer working as it used to, collectively.”
The sources suggested that "Al-Sudani is trying to create a distance between himself and others who have complex calculations" regarding staying or breaking away from Iranian influence, and that he "presents himself as a party with an official capacity that protects the country's interests."
A Shiite leader told Asharq Al-Awsat, “The Coordination Framework is now a ship that no one wants to captain, and it will be difficult to jump off it… Every decision has a different price.”
"Shiites to secession"
The sources said that Shiite forces are “evaluating at this stage the feasibility of continuing their commitment to loyalty to Iran, within the framework of rare discussions that they are experiencing for the first time in years,” but the state of uncertainty also includes assessing “Tehran’s reaction to its possible retreat in Iraq similar to what happened in Lebanon and Syria.”
Suddenly, Shiite leaders threatened to secede, and Nouri al-Maliki stated, in early March 2025, that “the Shiites will monopolize the oil if they are forced to divide,” and Hussein Mu’nis, a representative of the Iraqi “Hezbollah Brigades,” threatened “the independence of 9 provinces if the blackmail of the Shiites continues.” Later, activists close to the “Coordination Framework” began to educate about the “Shiite secession” project.
The sources said that this wave is part of “a pressure card from groups linked to Iran on the United States and influential countries in the region to avoid the maximum pressure imposed by Trump, but it is difficult to guess what a party might do that will resist so as not to lose everything.”