DINAR GURUS UPDATE, 26 DEC

DINAR GURUS UPDATE

Summary

In a recent discussion among Dinar Gurus, various insights were shared regarding the potential changes in Iraq’s currency value and economic practices as the year comes to a close. 

The critical period identified is the second half of December, during which Iraq is expected to pause and suspend its credit and lending practices, which are closely tied to the value of the Iraqi Dinar (IQD).

 This strategic pause is seen as vital for any potential adjustments to the currency’s value. Several commentators, including Jeff and Firefly, highlighted the significance of stopping the auctions, which is a necessary step to prevent the collapse of the currency.

 Others, like Nater, expressed optimism, estimating a high probability that the auctions will cease soon, leading to positive outcomes for the currency.

 Mark Zia PDK reported a brief surge in the currency’s value, with rates appearing on Forex sites, igniting excitement among investors. Discussions also included Iraq’s substantial oil reserves and the increasing contribution of non-oil revenues to the national budget. Advisors noted plans to enhance these non-oil revenues substantially, aiming to boost their contribution to the budget by 20%. Lastly, the introduction of foreign currencies in trade is anticipated to establish a new exchange rate for the Dinar, paving the way for its integration into a broader international currency basket.

Highlights

• 📅 Critical Period Identified: The second half of December is crucial for Iraq’s currency strategy.
• 💡 Credit Suspension: Iraq plans to pause credit and lending practices, pivotal for currency value adjustments.
• 🚫 Stopping Auctions: Experts believe halting auctions will prevent currency collapse, marking a significant economic shift.
• 📈 Currency Surge: Reports of IQD values spiking to $347 briefly over the weekend generated excitement in the currency market.
• 🛢️ Oil and Non-Oil Revenue: Iraq’s vast oil reserves and a growing non-oil revenue sector are central to its economic strategy.
• 💰 Non-Oil Revenue Goals: The Iraqi government targets a 20% contribution from non-oil revenues to the national budget.
• 🌐  International Basket Introduction: The inclusion of foreign currencies in transactions is expected to facilitate a new exchange rate for the Dinar.

Key Insights

• 🏦 Impact of Credit and Lending Practices: The suspension of credit and lending practices is a strategic move by Iraq to stabilize and potentially increase the value of the Dinar. By pausing these practices, Iraq aims to create a conducive environment for adjusting the currency’s value without risking a collapse. This decision reflects a careful approach to monetary policy and emphasizes the importance of timing in economic reforms.

• 🔒 Connection Between Auctions and Currency Value: The belief that stopping the currency auctions will lead to a more stable and potentially appreciating value of the Dinar underlines the current economic vulnerabilities. Auctions have historically played a role in the currency’s depreciation; thus, ceasing them may stabilize the currency and restore investor confidence.

• 📊 Market Reactions to Currency Rates: The brief spike in the IQD’s value to $347 on Forex platforms demonstrates the volatility and speculative nature of currency trading in Iraq. Such fluctuations can influence investor sentiment significantly, indicating that the market is responsive to news of potential currency reforms and economic stabilization efforts.

• 🌍 Iraq’s Position in Global Trade: The development of strategic projects, particularly in oil, positions Iraq as a crucial commercial link between the East and West. The description of oil as an “unending” resource highlights the potential for sustained economic growth, contingent upon effective management of these resources and a shift towards diversifying the economy.

• 📈 Growth of Non-Oil Revenues: The significant change in non-oil revenues’ contribution to Iraq’s budget reflects a broader economic strategy to reduce dependency on oil. By aiming for a 20% contribution from non-oil sectors, the government is not only diversifying its revenue streams but also enhancing economic resilience against oil price fluctuations.

• 🔄 Transition to Foreign Currencies: The introduction of foreign currencies for imports and exports signifies a move towards international integration. This transition could help establish a new exchange rate for the Dinar, potentially leading to more stability and value appreciation as it aligns with global economic practices.

• 🎯 Excitement Around Future Changes: The overall sentiment among analysts and commentators is one of cautious optimism, with many believing that the cessation of auctions and the introduction of new economic practices will lead to positive outcomes for the Dinar. This optimism is driven by a combination of strategic economic reforms and the potential for increased revenues from both oil and non-oil sectors.

In conclusion, the discussions among Dinar Gurus reflect a complex interplay of economic strategies, market reactions, and future prospects for Iraq’s currency. The decisions made in the coming weeks are expected to have significant implications for the Iraqi economy, particularly in terms of currency stabilization and diversification of revenue sources. As Iraq navigates this critical period, the focus remains on enhancing economic resilience and positioning the Dinar favorably in the international market.