🇮🇶 Iraq’s Dollar “Earthquake” at the Start of 2026
Why Rising Dollar Pressure Is Forcing a Dinar Decision
Commentary based on Jeff’s analysis
🌍 A Powerful Headline Out of Iraq
An Iraqi article recently captured attention with this title:
“The Dollar ‘Earthquake’ This Iraqi Markets at the Start of 2026… Expectations of Breaking the 146,000 Barrier.”
This headline reflects a real and growing pressure inside Iraq’s financial system — one that cannot be ignored much longer.
💵 The Parallel Dollar Is Rising — But Why?
Jeff explains the reason is not random:
Trade inside Iraq is increasing
Imports are rising
Iraq’s dinar is not yet a tradable international currency
Because of this, the U.S. dollar remains Iraq’s trade currency until the dinar goes international.
As trade increases, demand for dollars increases — pushing the parallel market higher.
📈 The 146,000 Threshold Matters
The dollar approaching — and threatening to break — 146,000 IQD per $100 is significant.
Why?
Because it creates:
Inflationary pressure
Public concern
A credibility issue for monetary policy
Jeff believes this forces urgency on the Central Bank of Iraq, especially once the new government is fully formed.
🏦 Why This Pushes Toward Revaluation
According to Jeff:
Iraq cannot continue expanding trade using a non-tradable currency
The dollar cannot remain the long-term solution
Monetary normalization becomes unavoidable
The rising dollar is not the problem — it’s the signal.
🔍 Clearing Up the “1 to 1” Confusion
Many people say:
“We’ve heard the dinar will go 1 to 1.”
Jeff agrees — technically, yes — but with an important distinction.
You must look at this from two different angles.
🇮🇶 Inside Iraq: 1 to 1 Purchasing Power
Within Iraq:
Whatever you can buy today with a 25,000 dinar note
You will be able to buy the same items with a 25 dinar note after reform
This is purchasing power parity, not international exchange value.
So yes — inside Iraq, it is effectively 1 to 1.
🌐 Outside Iraq: International Exchange Value
Outside Iraq is a different calculation.
Jeff explains it like this:
If the international rate were $3.00 per dinar (example)
A 25,000 dinar note would equal $75,000
A 25 dinar note would equal $0.75
This highlights the redenomination + revaluation structure — not a contradiction, but a design.
🧠 Why This Structure Makes Sense
This dual approach allows Iraq to:
Protect internal pricing
Avoid domestic inflation shocks
Transition smoothly to international markets
Normalize trade settlement
It’s not about instant wealth — it’s about economic functionality.
⭐ Featured Snippet
Jeff explains that Iraq’s rising parallel dollar rate is driven by increased trade and a non-tradable dinar, forcing the Central Bank toward currency reform once the new government is formed.
❓ Q&A: Jeff’s Dinar Breakdown
Q: Why is the dollar rising in Iraq?
A: Because trade is increasing and the dinar is not yet internationally tradable.
Q: What happens if the dollar breaks 146,000?
A: It increases pressure on the CBI to adjust monetary policy.
Q: Is the dinar really going 1 to 1?
A: Yes — internally for purchasing power, not externally.
Q: Why is the international value different?
A: Because exchange rates and domestic purchasing power are separate systems.
🧭 Final Thoughts
The “dollar earthquake” is not a failure of Iraq’s economy — it is a signal of growth without the right monetary tools.
As trade expands, the system must evolve.
Jeff’s analysis reinforces one core truth:
Iraq cannot finish its economic transition without making the dinar tradable.
Pressure is building — and pressure creates decisions.
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Jeff
Article: "The dollar 'earthquake' this Iraqi markets at the start of 2026...expectations of breaking the 146,000 barrier"
The value of the parallel dollar has gone up.
Why? Because trade is increasing. Because the Iraq dinar is not a tradable currency, the dollar is currently their trade currency until they go international, making the dinar tradable. It's crossing that 146,000 threshold against $100. That's creating a level of urgency for the central bank to need to revalue most likely after the government is formed.
Some of you say, 'We've heard this will be 1 to 1.' Technically, yeah, it's going to be 1 to 1. But you got to look at this from two different angles...Hear me carefully on this. It'll be 1 to 1 only within the country of Iraq, not outside.
Here's why...Whatever you can buy at the grocery store for a 25,000 dinar note...you'll be able to buy the same exact items with a 25 dinar note after. So yeah, in the country of Iraq it'll be 1 to 1...
What about outside Iraq?
There's the dinar against foreign currency value...Let's use a $3.00 as example. You would have a 25,000 note that would be worth $75,000. A 25 note is worth $0.75 cents.