Liquidity ‘shortage’ dismissed by economic expert Dagher, calls for focus on non-oil revenues, 10 JAN

 Liquidity ‘shortage’ dismissed by economic expert Dagher, calls for focus on non-oil revenues

Economic expert Mahmoud Dagher rejected the notion of a liquidity crisis in Iraq due to sufficient financial revenues and stable oil prices exceeding $70 per barrel. In an interview with Al-Rasheed TV, Dagher emphasized that Iraq’s financial situation remains stable and capable of covering salaries, even in the event of a drop in oil prices below the budgeted threshold.

He further noted that in scenarios of declining oil revenues, the government has the option to reduce or halt investment expenditures to secure operational budget requirements, a strategy previously adopted during former Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi’s tenure.

He concluded by urging a focus on non-oil revenues to diversify Iraq’s financial resources, cautioning against populist approaches to economic policy and calling for pragmatic decision-making to address the country’s structural financial challenges.

Excerpts from Mahmoud Dagher’s interview:

We have three types of salaries in the state: employees, retirees under the Pension Authority and the Social Welfare Network, which is covered by the Ministry of Finance through its dollar revenues, converted into dinars via the Central Bank. In case of a liquidity shortage, borrowing becomes the alternative.

There is no liquidity shortage, but rather poor management and coordination. Revenues are sufficient, and oil prices remain above $70 per barrel. Therefore, salaries cannot be stopped. However, there is a coordination issue between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, as approval takes 30–40 days to be reinforced, and we need some accounting adjustments to resolve the matter.

If oil prices drop, the investment budget can be reduced or halted to ensure the operational budget is secured. Previous governments adopted this approach several times, particularly in 2015 and subsequent years.

I support an annual budget because it accounts for all variables. The three-year budget did not achieve the financial stability it was supposed to, as it remains merely a set of future plans. Moreover, we have not benefited from the annual budget system in past years due to delays in its approval.

A weak economy with limited options does not allow for ambitious moves. It requires a wise decision-maker. So far, the Iraqi government has been prudent in its economic decisions. However, Mr. Ammar Hakim’s warnings about the Syrian currency scenario are directed at political leaders, cautioning them against the risk of U.S. sanctions.

In politics, we can talk about rising growth rates, but in economics, it’s a different story. On the ground, Iraq still lags in infrastructure development. We must increase non-oil revenues, and if some are displeased, so be it—because we must move away from populism. link