Iraqi economist expects oil price to rise to $200 if war extends to Gulf , 6 OCT

Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi expected on Friday that the price of a barrel of oil would rise to nearly $200 if the war in the region expanded to include the Gulf states, and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and cut off the flow of about 20 million barrels of oil to global markets daily.

The expert spoke in an analysis published today about the two expected possibilities regarding what he called the coming oil war. He said that the first of them is that Israel will target the Iranian oil export outlets, especially Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil exports pass. This means eliminating 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil from the market, which will raise prices by about $5 per barrel to $82.

He added: But it will lead to cutting off the most important sources of Iranian funding, and in this case we will face several scenarios. The first is that OPEC Plus will intervene and cancel voluntary and mandatory production restrictions, which will provide sufficient oil supplies to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil, indicating that this will lead to a decrease in prices and their return to the $70 mark.

He addressed the second possibility, saying: The war may extend to include oil pumping and export stations in the Gulf, which may negatively affect Gulf oil exports, especially Saudi oil exports, which will push oil prices above $100 per barrel.

Al-Marsoumi also pointed out that Iran had previously confirmed that preventing it from exporting its oil to the world also means preventing the exit of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, this means cutting off about 20 million barrels per day of global oil supplies, which will push prices to $200 levels, in addition to negatively impacting Gulf gas shipments that pass through the strait.

The Iraqi economic expert continued by saying that the Israeli strike will be limited to hitting oil facilities, especially Iranian refineries, which means taking out 300 to 400 thousand barrels per day of Iranian exports, noting that in this case it will have no significant impact on global oil prices, especially after Libyan oil returns to its previous levels.  link