American views split on US military withdrawal from Iraq: Reduce operations or fully withdraw?, 30 SEPT

 Shafaq News/ American interpretations of the decision by Baghdad and Washington to end the International Coalition's mission and withdraw forces from Iraq vary. Some see it as “a natural step” after ISIS's defeat, while others call for a “full US military exit,” a decision left to the next president.

On Friday, the US and Iraq reached an agreement to formally conclude the US-led military coalition's anti-ISIS mission in Iraq by 2025. While certain US troops will leave long-held bases, officials have not clarified how many of the 2,500 US forces stationed in Iraq will remain. Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed that the US military presence would be adjusted but did not provide specific numbers.

This agreement comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. Regional conflicts involving Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza raise concerns about a potential broader war. US military installations in Iraq have frequently been targeted by Iran-backed forces, particularly following the Israel-Hamas war last year.

The two-phase plan outlined in the agreement states that by September 2025, the coalition’s mission will end, and US forces will vacate bases such as Ain al-Asad and Baghdad International Airport. They will relocate to Hareer base in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region. The second phase allows for a limited US presence to continue supporting counter-ISIS efforts in Syria until 2026, though the exact number of troops that will remain in Iraq remains unclear.

While Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has voiced confidence in his nation’s forces to manage the remnants of ISIS, facing internal pressure from pro-Iran factions. US officials, however, have warned that the threat of ISIS persists, particularly in Syria, where the group has increased its activities.

According to The Media Line, “this phased withdrawal is part of a broader adjustment of US military operations in the region.” The American news agency reports that the withdrawal will reduce American military operations, with certain bases being vacated, yet leave a residual force to counter potential ISIS resurgence.

Time Magazine offered a different perspective, framing the deal as "long overdue" and suggesting that the US should fully withdraw from Iraq. The magazine emphasized that while Washington will not be pulling all its troops, the agreement represents the start of a "conditions-based transition" that risks prolonging US involvement. Critics of this gradual approach argue that the US has already accomplished its counter-ISIS goals in Iraq. As Time Magazine pointed out, “the territorial caliphate has been destroyed, and local forces are now more capable of managing security operations.”

Concerns remain, however, about whether a complete US departure could embolden ISIS and Iran. US lawmakers, such as House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, have expressed alarm that a full withdrawal would benefit Iran and ISIS. Rogers warned that "withdrawing from Iraq in this way would embolden Iran and ISIS," a sentiment echoed by retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who claimed that ISIS would "inevitably" resurge without a U.S. military presence.

Time Magazine countered these claims by noting that local forces, including the Iraqi army and Kurdish peshmerga, have significantly improved their capabilities since the fight against ISIS began in 2014. Moreover, they argue that "the US intelligence community would remain “laser-focused " and could take action against ISIS without a ground presence, citing past examples of successful operations, such as the 2022 drone strike that killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan.

The phased withdrawal will likely shape the future of US-Iraq relations. Time Magazine concluded that “the Biden administration has set the stage for a more normal, business-like relationship with Iraq,” but the ultimate decision on the US military's future role in the country may rest with the next president.

Disclaimer: The views presented by the author do not necessarily reflect the official standpoint of Shafaq News Agency.